The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge Series on Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics)

Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. Hacking invokes a wide intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted. First published in 1975, this edition includes an introduction that contextualizes his book in light of developing philosophical trends. Ian Hacking is the winner of the Holberg International Memorial Prize 2009. Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking here presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. The contemporary debates center around figures such as Pascal, Leibniz and Jacques Bernoulli.What brought about the change in ideas? Hacking invokes a wider intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted.This edition includes a new introduction that contextualizes the book in light of new work and philosophical trends since 1975, when the book was first published. Historical Records Show That There Was No Real Concept Of Probability In Europe Before The Mid-seventeenth Century, Although The Use Of Dice And Other Randomizing Objects Was Commonplace. Ian Hacking Here Presents A Philosophical Critique Of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction And Statistical Inference And The Growth Of This New Family Of Ideas In The Fifteenth, Sixteenth And Seventeenth Centuries. The Contemporary Debates Center Around Figures Such As Pascal, Leibniz And Jacques Bernoulli.--jacket. An Absent Family Of Ideas -- Duality -- Opinion -- Evidence -- Signs -- The First Calculations -- The Roannez Circle (1654) -- The Great Decision (1658?) -- The Art Of Thinking (1662) -- Probability And The Law (1665) -- Expectation (1657) -- Political Arithmetic (1662) -- Annuities (1671) -- Equipossibility (1678) -- Inductive Logic -- The Art Of Conjecturing (1692 Published 1713) -- The First Limit Theorem -- Design -- Induction (1737). Ian Hacking. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 187-202) And Index. In 1865 Isaac Todhunter published A History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability from Time of Pascal to that of Laplace.