The Economic Effects of Disarmament : What Will Happen If Britain Disarms?

This study examines the consequences of disarmament on the British economy, looking at the impact of the withdrawal of defence expenditures on industry and employment, and suggests how defence spending could be replaced in order to create new civil demand. Acknowledgements 5 Preface 7 Contents 11 Part One. The Economic Effects Of Defence Expenditure On The United Kingdom 1 1. Defence And The Economy 17 1. The Level of Defence Expenditure 17 2. Defence and Employment 24 3. Defence Expenditure and the Firm 34 4. Defence and Research 42 5. The Balance of Payments 50 2. Defence and Industry 55 6. The Sectors Likely to be Affected 55 7. The Aircraft Industry 62 8. The Electronics Industry 78 9. The Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Industries 94 10. Other Industries 108 Part Two. The Transfer Of Resources From Defence Expenditure 131 11. Past Experience Of Disarmament 131 12. The Period Of Transition 142 13. The Ending Of The Transition Period; Forecasts Of The Permanent Redistribution Of Expenditure 158 14. The Redistribution Of Defence Expenditure To Private Consumption 168 15. The Redistribution Of Defence Expenditure Through Government Current Expenditure At Home And Increased Aid Abroad 188 16. The Redistribution Of Defence Expenditure To Investment 201 17. The Relationship Between Replacement Expenditure And Revenue 221 Appendix 225 Appendix A. Garrison Towns and Defence Expenditure 225 Appendix B. The questionnaire sent to companies believed to carry out defence work 228 Appendix C. The Estimated Cost to the Exchequer of implementing the Proposals considered in Chapters 14-16 231 List of Tables 233 Index 237 This study, sponsored by the United World Trust, is the most detailed work to have been published on the results of disarmament on the British economy. It examines the consequences of the withdrawal of defence expenditures on industry and employment, and suggests how defence spending could be replaced in order to create new civil demand. The book provides precise and objective statistical analysis, which is much needed in this field. Both method and conclusions will be of interest in all countries to those concerned with public policy and the future of mankind.