The Dynamics of Business Cycles: Stylized Facts, Economic Theory, Econometric Methodology and Applications (Contributions to Economics)

This study is a revised version of my doctoral dissertation at the Economics Department of the University of Munich. I want to take the opportunity to express my gratitude to some people who have helped me in my work. My greatest thanks go to the supervisor of this dissertation, Professor Claude Billinger. Bis ideas have formed the basis of my work. Be permanently sup­ ported it with a host of ideas, criticism and encouragement. Furthermore, he provided a stimulating research environment at SEMECON. This study would not have been possible in this form without the help of my present and former colleagues at SEMECON. I am indebted to Rudolf Kohne-Volland, Monika Sebold-Bender and Ulrich Woitek for providing soft­ ware and guidance for the data analysis. Discussions with them and with Thilo Weser have helped me to take many hurdles, particularly in the early stages of the project. My sincere thanks go to them all. I had the opportunity to present a former version of my growth model at a workshop of Professor Klaus Zimmermann. I want to thank all the parti­ cipants for their helpful comments. I also acknowledge critical and constructive comments from an anonymous referee. Table of Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I. Methodology 1. Importance of Stylized Facts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.1 Limitations of statistical testing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.2 Evaluating economic models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 11 . . . . . . 2. Further Methodological Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 13 . . . . . . Front Matter....Pages i-ix Introduction....Pages 1-5 Front Matter....Pages 7-7 Importance of Stylized Facts....Pages 9-12 Further Methodological Issues....Pages 13-17 Front Matter....Pages 19-19 Stylized Facts: Method....Pages 21-26 Stylized Facts: Results....Pages 27-49 Front Matter....Pages 51-51 SOA Models....Pages 53-72 Consumption....Pages 73-95 Prices and Wages....Pages 97-116 Front Matter....Pages 117-117 Determinants of Growth....Pages 119-123 A Real Model of Cyclical Growth....Pages 125-156 Front Matter....Pages 157-157 Estimating Continuous Time Models....Pages 159-162 The Discrete Kalman Filter....Pages 163-168 An Exact Gaussian Estimator for General Linear Continuous Time Models....Pages 169-180 Further Topics....Pages 181-187 Conclusions....Pages 189-191 Back Matter....Pages 193-217 The book uses the methods of spectral analysis to establish a set of stylized facts concerning the cyclical properties of the most important economic aggregates of Germany and the US. To explain these stylized facts, a series of investment cycle models is developed and evaluated. Thereby, the book provides a complete methodology for estimating and evaluating continuous time dynamic models