The Demography of Transforming Families (The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, 56)

This book provides an up-to-date survey on the nature, causes, and patterns of family change. The traditional nuclear family has been replaced by a multiplicity of other forms, as widespread cohabitation, high levels of divorce and union dissolution, rising childlessness, and far below replacement fertility have emerged to an extent never before seen. Theoretical perspectives on this "Second Demographic Transition" are presented, highlighting the dramatic changes in gender roles. New methodological strategies for assessing family dynamics are presented, from multistate models of marriage and divorce combined with fertility to improved techniques for combining census and survey data on the family to a new approach for disentangling age, period, and cohort effects. While the volume emphasizes Western nations, insightful case studies range from analyzing family complexity in cohorts of parents and children in the UK to the impact of interpartner violence on family formation, to the emergence of a "gender war" in South Korea. By providing new insights into where we are today and how we got here, the book will be of value to all those interested in the contemporary family. "Delayed Fertility as a Driver of Fertility Decline?" available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com. Preface Contents Part I: Theories of Family Dynamics Chapter 1: Introduction and Theoretical Overview 1.1 A Theoretical Overview 1.1.1 The Proposed Explanations 1.1.2 A New Explanatory Framework 1.1.2.1 Economic Change 1.1.2.2 Ideological/Attitudinal Change 1.1.2.3 Demographic Change 1.1.2.4 The Rise of Gender Competition 1.1.2.5 The Fall in the Social Capital Value of Children and Marriage 1.1.2.6 The Second Demographic Transition 1.1.2.7 A Recapitulation and Some Thoughts About the Future 1.2 The Contributions of Future Chapters References Chapter 2: The Future of Family Demography: Filling in the Fourth Cell 2.1 Introduction 2.2 History of Family Demography: The Gender-Segregated World and Its Early Breakdown 2.3 The Problem of Data 2.4 The Male Life Course 2.5 Why the Delay? 2.6 Concluding Discussion References Chapter 3: Family Demography and Personal Life 3.1 Expanding the Boundaries 3.2 Centering Family Ties 3.3 From Unbounded Diversity to Bounded Pluralism 3.4 Structure Versus Process 3.5 Quantitative Versus Qualitative 3.6 Adult-Centered Versus Child-Centered 3.7 Cross-Sectional Versus Longitudinal 3.8 Measurement 3.9 Toward a Demography of Kinship References Chapter 4: Delayed Fertility as a Driver of Fertility Decline? 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Recent Trends in Early, Late, and Completed Fertility in Low Fertility Countries 4.2.1 The Mean Age at First Birth Has Increased 4.2.2 Large Cross-Country Differences with Regard to Later Fertility 4.2.3 Fertility Delay or Postponement? 4.3 Does Fertility Delay Cause Fertility Decline? 4.4 Evidence Suggests That an Increasing Number of People Are Experiencing Constraints to Childbearing in Later Reproductive L... 4.4.1 Many People in Their Late 30s and 40s Would Still Like to Start or Expand Their Family 4.4.2 Medically-Assisted Reproduction Has Increased Particularly Among Older Age Groups 4.4.3 Behavior Becomes More Conducive to Childbearing as People Near the End of Their Reproductive Window 4.5 Changes in Partnership Dynamics Have Contributed to Fertility Decline 4.6 Some Implications of Fertility Delay for Future Completed Fertility 4.6.1 Access to MAR Will Increasingly Contribute to Completed Fertility 4.6.2 Life Conditions in the 30s and Early 40s Will Become More Relevant 4.6.3 The Effect of Further Delay on Completed Fertility Will Depend on the Country 4.7 Conclusions and Outlook References Part II: Methodological Analyses of Transforming Families Chapter 5: Cohort Effects on Fertility as Age-Period Interactions: A Reanalysis of American Birth Rates, 1917-2020 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Modeling Age, Period, and Age by Period Interaction Effects 5.2.1 An Exploratory Analysis 5.2.2 A Theoretically Motivated Decomposition 5.2.3 The Decomposition Procedure 5.3 Identifying Cohort Effects in Hypothetical Arrays 5.3.1 Interactions When the Level of Cohort Fertility Varies Uniformly Across Age 5.3.2 Interactions When the Timing of Cohort Fertility Varies 5.3.3 Interactions in a Cohort-by-Age Fertility Array When Period Fertility Varies 5.4 RBC Decomposition of Fertility Data for the United States, 1917-2020 5.5 Summary and Conclusions Appendix: Finding the B matrix Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Assigning Values for the R and C Matrices References Chapter 6: The Future of the Italian Family: Evidence from a Household Projection Model 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Changes of the Family System in Italy 6.3 Data and Definitions 6.4 Method 6.5 Main Results 6.5.1 Projected Population by Household Position 6.5.2 Number and Size of Households 6.5.3 People Living Alone 6.5.4 Couples with and without Children 6.5.5 Single Parents 6.5.6 Territorial Specificities 6.6 Final Remarks References Chapter 7: A Multistate Analysis of United States Marriage, Divorce, and Fertility, 2005-10 and 2015-20: The Retreat from Marr... 7.1 The Augmented Marital Status Life Table Model 7.2 The Input Data 7.3 Calculating Summary Measures of Marriage, Divorce, and Fertility 7.4 Results 7.5 Discussion Appendix References Chapter 8: Heterogeneity in Hispanic Fertility: Confronting the Challenges of Estimation and Disaggregation 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Background 8.2.1 Sources of Heterogeneity in Hispanic Fertility 8.2.2 Challenges to Correctly Estimating Variation in Hispanic Fertility 8.3 Variation in Hispanic Fertility from 2006-2016 8.3.1 Data and Sample 8.3.2 Analytic Method 8.3.3 Fertility Rates and Population Composition from 2006-2016 8.3.4 Population Composition 8.3.5 Decomposition Results 8.4 Conclusion Appendix 1 References Part III: Case Studies of Family Transformation Chapter 9: The Gender War and the Rise of Anti-family Sentiments in South Korea 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Background 9.2.1 Uneven Gender Revolution by Gender in South Korea 9.2.1.1 The Origins and Diffusion of the Gender War in South Korea 9.2.1.2 The Gangnam Murder and the Intensification of the Gender War 9.3 Analytical Approach and Data 9.4 Results 9.4.1 Gangnam Murder ́s Influence on Public Discourse About Gender Issues 9.4.2 Gender Attitudes After the Gangnam Murder 9.4.3 Attitudes and Intentions Toward Marriage After the Gangnam Murder 9.5 Discussion References In Korean Chapter 10: Cohort Change in Family Life Course Complexity of Adults and Children 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Conceptualizing Family Complexity 10.2.1 Previous Literature on Family Complexity 10.3 Theoretical Background 10.3.1 Family Complexity Across Birth Cohorts 10.3.2 Differences by Gender and Parenthood Status 10.3.3 Differences Between Adults and Children 10.4 Data and Methods 10.4.1 Study Sample 10.4.2 Sequence Definition 10.4.3 Measuring Family Complexity 10.4.4 Analytical Strategy 10.5 Results 10.5.1 Adults ́ Family Complexity 10.5.2 Children ́s Family Complexity 10.6 Discussion Appendix References Chapter 11: Union Experience and Stability of Parental Unions in Sweden and Norway 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Postponed Parenthood and Shifts in Union Experience 11.3 Implications of Union Experience for Family Stability 11.4 Parallel Life Experiences Prior to Parenthood 11.5 Identifying Contributions of Changes in Young Adult Experience to Parental Separation 11.6 Union Experience, Education, and Parental Separation in Norway and Sweden 11.7 Data and Methods 11.8 Results 11.9 Conclusions and Discussion References Part IV: Deviance and the Family Chapter 12: Criminal Offending Trajectories During the Transition to Adulthood and Subsequent Fertility 12.1 Offending Trajectories 12.2 Literature on Offending 12.3 Gender, Offending, and Fertility 12.4 Current Research 12.5 Data 12.5.1 Dependent Variable 12.5.2 Focal Independent Variable 12.5.3 Control Variables 12.5.4 Analytical Approach 12.6 Results 12.6.1 Multivariate Results 12.6.2 Supplementary Models 12.7 Discussion 12.7.1 Limitations 12.7.2 Conclusion Appendix A: Mean Parity by Serious and Intense Offending, N = 8909 Appendix B: Full Models of Poisson Regression of Serious and Intense Offending, Women and Men Appendix C: Poisson Regression of Wave V Fertility on Specific Offenses,spiepr146 Women Appendix D: Poisson Regression of Wave V Fertility on Specific Offenses, Men References Chapter 13: The Influence of Intimate Partner Violence on Early and Unintended Parenthood 13.1 The Influence of Intimate Partner Violence on Early and Unintended Parenthood 13.1.1 Intimate Partner Violence and Birth Intendedness 13.1.2 Current Study 13.2 Data and Methods 13.2.1 Data 13.2.2 Dependent Variable 13.2.3 Independent Variables 13.2.4 Analytic Strategy 13.2.5 Descriptive Results 13.2.6 Regression Results 13.2.7 Supplemental Analyses 13.2.8 Discussion 13.3 Conclusions References