The Climatic Risk Atlas Of European Butterflies

The overarching aim of the atlas is to communicate the potential risks of climatic change to the future of European butterflies. The main objectives are to: (1) provide a visual aid to discussions on climate change risks and impacts on biodiversity and thus contribute to risk communication as a core element of risk assessment; (2) present crucial data on a large group of species which could help to prioritise conservation efforts in the face of climatic change; (3) reach a broader audience through the combination of new scientific results with photographs of all treated species and some straight forward information about the species and their ecology. The results of this atlas show that climate change is likely to have a profound effect on European butterflies. Ways to mitigate some of the negative impacts are to (1) maintain large populations in diverse habitats; (2) encourage mobility across the landscape; (3) reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses; (4) allow maximum time for species adaptation; (4) conduct further research on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity. The book is a result of long-term research of a large international team of scientists, working at research institutes and non-governmental organizations, many within the framework of projects funded by the European Commission Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies......Page 1 Title Page......Page 4 Copyright Info......Page 5 CONTENTS......Page 6 Acknowledgements......Page 8 Foreword by Butterfly Conservation Europe......Page 9 Context and objectives of a climatic risk atlas of European butterflies......Page 11 A. CLIMATE CHANGE, BIODIVERSITY, BUTTERFLIES, AND RISK ASSESSMENT......Page 12 A.1 Introduction: Butterflies as indicators......Page 13 A.2 Scenarios and biodiversity......Page 14 A.3 Climate change and Biodiversity Risk Assessment for butterflies......Page 15 B. METHODOLOGY......Page 18 B.2 Scenarios used to assess climate change risks for European Butterflies......Page 19 Climatic factors of butterfly distribution......Page 21 Modelling procedure......Page 22 Definitions of climate change risk categories for European butterflies......Page 25 Integrated overall risk categories for European species –integrating all scenarios and time steps......Page 26 C. CLIMATE RISKS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLY SPECIES......Page 28 C.1 Species inventory and taxonomy of European butterflies......Page 29 C.2 Climatic fate of individual species......Page 32 Hesperiidae......Page 33 Papilionidae......Page 105 Pieridae......Page 123 Lycaenidae......Page 187 Riodinidae......Page 341 Libytheidae......Page 343 Nymphalidae......Page 345 Danaidae......Page 619 C.3 Non-modelled European butterfly species......Page 621 C.4 Summary results......Page 630 D. DISCUSSION OF METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS......Page 634 General suitability of species distribution projections......Page 635 Approaches used in the present atlas......Page 637 D.2 Interaction of taxonomic status and modelling results......Page 646 Few false absences......Page 648 E. OUTLOOK: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUTTERFLYCONSERVATION......Page 652 Habitats and trophic interactions......Page 653 Climate envelopes for European butterflies as a starting point for future research and conservation......Page 654 Climate change and evolution......Page 655 Biodiversity Risk Assessment......Page 656 Butterfly indicator developments......Page 657 Butterflies as climate change indicators......Page 658 E.3 Climate change and butterfly conservation......Page 659 F. APPENDICES, REFERENCES AND INDEX......Page 662 Appendix 1 – Model performance......Page 663 Appendix 2 – Scenario results......Page 675 Appendix 3: Risk category statistics of European butterflies under different scenarios......Page 697 References......Page 699 Species index (of modelled butterflies)......Page 707 Climate change is a new and potent risk to biodiversity. The inevitable rise in global temperatures predicted over the next decades and century is a serious threat to butterfly and moth populations and is likely to exacerbate their decline.