The Change of Climate and Ecological Environment in China 2021: Synthesis Report: Synthesis Report

This book analyzes China's climate and environmental change facts, impacts and vulnerabilities, and mitigation strategies. On basis of synthesis assessment, through comprehensive integration, it focuses on four aspects: climate change and ecological environment evolution, future climate change and risk prediction, technical measures and action results for adaptation and mitigation, and development path with climate resilience. In terms of change facts, it focuses on extreme climate events, large-scale factors affecting China's climate change, and the impact of climate change on China's social and economic system. In terms of future risks, it focuses on key variables such as temperature, precipitation and other key variables and the prediction of future changes in extreme climate events. Potential risks in resources, agriculture, cryosphere, ecology, human settlements, health and major projects are also discussed. In terms of adaptation and mitigation, this book systematically sorts out and summarizes the effects, policy choices and synergies of climate change adaptation and mitigation from two perspectives, global and Chinese. Finally, from the perspectives of carbon emission path, sustainable development, and building a community with a shared future for mankind, it explains the essentials of choosing a development path with climate resilience. 530049_1_En_OFC 530049_1_En_BookFrontmatter_OnlinePDF Funded by Editorial Board of the Series of The Change of Climate and Ecological Environment in China: 2021 Editorial Board of The Change of Climate and Ecological Environment in China 2021: Synthesis Report Foreword by Jianguo Hou Foreword by Guotai Zhuang Preface I Preface II Introduction Contents 530049_1_En_1_Chapter_OnlinePDF 1 Introduction 1.1 Evolution of Global Climate and Ecological Environment 1.1.1 Impact of Human Activities on the Earth’s Environment and the Livable Earth 1.1.2 Impact of Human Activities on Global Climate Change 1.1.3 Impacts and Risks of Climate Change on Natural and Human Systems 1.2 Historical Evolution of Climate, Ecological Environment and Socio-economic Development in China 1.2.1 Overview 1.2.2 Historical Changes in Climate, Ecological Environment and Socio-economic Development 1.2.3 Contemporary Changes in Climate and Ecological Environment 1.2.4 Changes in Modern Social and Economic Development 1.3 Future Changes and Transformation and Development 1.3.1 Future Changes and Risks in Climate and Ecological Environment 1.3.2 Actions to Deal with Climate Change and Protect Environment 1.3.3 Transition to Sustainable Development 1.4 Contribution of China’s Assessment Reports on Climate, Environment and Ecology 1.5 Overview of This Assessment References 530049_1_En_2_Chapter_OnlinePDF 2 Observed Climate Change and Ecological Environment Evolution and Their Causes 2.1 Observed Facts 2.1.1 Atmosphere 2.1.2 Hydrosphere 2.1.3 Cryosphere 2.1.4 Ecosystem 2.1.5 Planetary Environment 2.2 Extreme Events 2.2.1 Extreme Temperature Events 2.2.2 Extreme Precipitation Events 2.2.3 Typhoon and Severe Convective Weather 2.2.4 Sand-Dust Storms and Haze 2.2.5 Cryospheric Events 2.2.6 Forest Fire Weather 2.2.7 Compound Extreme Events 2.2.8 Attribution of Extreme Events 2.3 Impacts of Human Activities on Climate Change in China 2.3.1 Impact of Human Activities on Atmospheric Composition and the Generated Radiative Forcing 2.3.2 Impact of Human Activities on Surface Solar Radiation and Surface Air Temperature in China 2.3.3 Impact of Human Activities on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Precipitation in China 2.3.4 Impact of Human Activities on Extreme Climate Events in China 2.4 Large-Scale Factors Affecting Climate Change in China 2.4.1 East Asian Monsoon 2.4.2 Main Modes and Teleconnections of Atmospheric Circulations 2.4.3 Ocean Modes 2.4.4 Arctic Sea Ice and Snow Cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 2.4.5 Snow Cover in Eurasia 2.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Socio-economic Systems 2.5.1 The Impact Extent of Climate Change on Socio-economic Systems 2.5.2 Regional Differences in the Impact of Climate Change on Socio-economic Systems References 530049_1_En_3_Chapter_OnlinePDF 3 Projections of Future Climate Change and Risks 3.1 Anthropogenic Drivers of Future Climate Change 3.2 Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models 3.2.1 Earth System Models 3.2.2 Regional Climate Models 3.2.3 Integrated Assessment Models 3.3 Projections of Future Climate Change 3.3.1 Temperature 3.3.2 Precipitation 3.4 Projection of Changes in Extreme Events 3.4.1 Temperature Extremes 3.4.2 Precipitation Extremes 3.4.3 Compound Extreme Events 3.5 Exposure and Vulnerability 3.5.1 Observed Exposure and Vulnerability Changes 3.5.2 Possible Changes in Socio-economic Exposure and Vulnerability to Rainstorms and Flood Disasters 3.5.3 Possible Changes in Socio-economic Exposure and Vulnerability to Droughts 3.5.4 Possible Changes in Population Health Exposure and Vulnerability to Heatwaves 3.6 Future Climate Change Risks 3.6.1 Water Resources 3.6.2 Agriculture 3.6.3 Cryosphere 3.6.4 Ecosystem 3.6.5 Human Habitat 3.6.6 Human Health 3.6.7 Major Projects References 530049_1_En_4_Chapter_OnlinePDF 4 Adaptation and Mitigation: Measures, Actions and Effects 4.1 Climate Change Adaptation 4.1.1 Global Progress 4.1.2 Adaptation Strategies 4.1.3 Adaptation Technologies and Measure Options 4.1.4 China’s Adaptation to Climate Change: Actions and Effects 4.2 Climate Change Mitigation 4.2.1 Global Progress 4.2.2 Mitigation Technology and Measure Option 4.2.3 China’s Emission Reduction Policies and Effects 4.2.4 Emission Reduction and Effects in China 4.3 Synergized Effects of Adaptation and Mitigation 4.3.1 Adaptation, Mitigation and Their Interactions 4.3.2 China’s Synergized Adaptation and Mitigation Measures, Actions and Effects 4.3.3 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Under the Goals of the Paris Agreement References 530049_1_En_5_Chapter_OnlinePDF 5 The Development Pathways with Climate Resilience 5.1 Global and China’s Carbon Emission Budgets and Implementation Pathway Under the Warming Targets of the Paris Agreement 5.1.1 Global and China’s Carbon Emission Budgets 5.1.2 Global Emission Reduction Pathways 5.1.3 China’s Emission Reduction Pathways 5.2 Addressing Climate Change and the Sustainable Development 5.2.1 The Linkage Between Addressing Climate Change and Sustainable Development Goals 5.2.2 Climate Resilience and Risk Management 5.2.3 Addressing Climate Change and Air Pollution Control 5.2.4 The Linkage Between Addressing Climate Change and Other Systems 5.2.5 Tackling Climate Change and Eradicating Poverty 5.2.6 Addressing Climate Change and Fairn Ethics 5.3 Global Climate Governance to Help Build a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind 5.3.1 Global Climate Governance System and Its Challenges 5.3.2 Sustainable Management Concept of Earth System and Scientific Assessment Support 5.3.3 Coordinate International and Domestic Efforts to Actively Tackle Climate Change 5.4 Addressing Climate Change: Our Shared Future References