The Autocratic Middle Class: How State Dependency Reduces the Demand for Democracy: 26 (Princeton Studies in Political Behavior, 26)

**How middle-class economic dependence on the state impedes democratization and contributes to authoritarian resilience** Conventional wisdom holds that the rising middle classes are a force for democracy. Yet in post-Soviet countries like Russia, where the middle class has grown rapidly, authoritarianism is deepening. Challenging a basic tenet of democratization theory, Bryn Rosenfeld shows how the middle classes can actually be a source of support for autocracy and authoritarian resilience, and reveals why development and economic growth do not necessarily lead to greater democracy. In pursuit of development, authoritarian states often employ large swaths of the middle class in state administration, the government budget sector, and state enterprises. Drawing on attitudinal surveys, unique data on protest behavior, and extensive fieldwork in the post-Soviet region, Rosenfeld documents how the failure of the middle class to gain economic autonomy from the state stymies support for political change, and how state economic engagement reduces middle-class demands for democracy and weakens prodemocratic coalitions. __The Autocratic Middle Class__ makes a vital contribution to the study of democratization, showing how dependence on the state weakens the incentives of key societal actors to prefer and pursue democracy. The Autocratic Middle Class: How State Dependency Reduces the Demand for Democracy Contents Acknowledgments 1 The Autocratic Middle Class Argument in Brief: The Autocratic Middle Class Scope of the Argument Descriptive Data on the Post-Communist Region The Middle Class and Democratization The Middle Class in Modernization Theory The Middle Class in Redistributive Theories of Democratization Other Approaches and New Directions Economic Statism and Democratization Overview of the Empirical Strategy Research Design and Methods Plan of the Book 2 State Dependency and Middle-Class Demand for Democracy The Political Economy of Authoritarian Rule The Logic of State Dependency Key Concepts Democracy Support The Middle Class State Employment 3 The Post-Communist Middle Classes, the State, and Democratization Socioeconomic Status, State Employment, and Democratic Attitudes Data, Concepts, and Measures Cross-national Data Democracy Support The Middle Class State Employment Controls Empirical Results Robustness Checks Alternative Explanations: Selection Using occupational variation to test for selection Using career trajectories to test alternative mechanisms Placebo Test Other Alternative Mechanisms Eeconomic performance Redistributive preferences Communist socialization Conclusion 4 Rethinking the Middle-Class Protest Paradigm The Middle Class and Mobilized Contention Empirical Expectations Protest and the Russian Middle Class Data and Empirical Strategy Descriptive Analysis The Protesters Protesters and the Population Case-Control Sampling with Contaminated Controls Empirical Results Selective Incentives, Grievances, and Social Capital The Democratic Protest Coalition Values, incentives, and the formation of pro-democracy coalitions Conclusion 5 Choosing to Work for the State Working for the State in Comparative Perspective Who Goes Public? Motivation, Networks, Values, and Background Data and Measures Empirical Results Discussion Conclusion 6 Revolution, Democratic Retrenchment, and the Middle Class The Ukrainian Case Background Public Sector Dynamics and the Orange Revolution Case Selection Data and Empirical Approach Research Design Measurement of the Independent Variables Measurement of the Dependent Variables Variation in the dependent variable Empirical Results Changes in State Dependency and Changes in Regime Preferences Democratic Breakthrough and the Orange Coalition Democratic Retrenchment and the Growing Anti-Orange Coalition Conclusion 7 Aligning the Middle Class with Autocracy: Rhetoric and Practice Social Engineering—Creating a Middle Class The Empirical Middle Class in Kazakhstan The Stakes of Size Composition Diverse and Independent? The Benefits of Being (State) Middle Class Democracy and Kazakhstan’s Middle Class The Middle Class and Societal Mobilization Conclusion 8 Conclusion Findings Contribution and Implications Mobilization Development and Democratization Beyond the Post-Communist Region Resource States Nature of the State and State Institutions Market Backlash and Nationalizations Economic Crises and the Durability of Big States Conclusion Appendix I: Regression Results Bibliography Index "The conventional wisdom is that a growing middle class will give rise to democracy. Yet the middle classes of the developing world have grown at a remarkable pace over the past two decades, and much of this growth has taken place in countries that remain nondemocratic. Rosenfeld explains this phenomenon by showing how modern autocracies secure support from key middle-class constituencies. Drawing on original surveys, interviews, archival documents, and secondary sources collected from nine months in the field, she compares the experiences of recent post-communist countries, including Russia, the Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, to show that under autocracy, state efforts weaken support for democracy, especially among the middle class. When autocratic states engage extensively in their economies - by offering state employment, offering perks to those to those who are loyal, and threatening dismissal to those who are disloyal - the middle classes become dependent on the state for economic opportunities and career advancement, and, ultimately, do not support a shift toward democratization. Her argument explains why popular support for Ukraine's Orange Revolution unraveled or why Russians did not protest evidence of massive electoral fraud. The author's research questions the assumption that a rising share of educated, white-collar workers always makes the conditions for democracy more favorable, and why dependence on the state has such pernicious consequences for democratization"-- Provided by publisher How Middle Class Economic Dependence On The State Impedes Democratization And Contributes To Authoritarian Resilience Conventional Wisdom Holds That The Rising Middle Classes Are A Force For Democracy. Yet In Post-soviet Countries Like Russia, Where The Middle Class Has Grown Rapidly, Authoritarianism Is Deepening. Challenging A Basic Tenet Of Democratization Theory, Bryn Rosenfeld Shows How The Middle Classes Can Actually Be A Source Of Support For Autocracy And Authoritarian Resilience, And Reveals Why Development And Economic Growth Do Not Necessarily Lead To Greater Democracy. In Pursuit Of Development, Authoritarian States Often Employ Large Swaths Of The Middle Class In State Administration, The Government Budget Sector, And State Enterprises. Drawing On Attitudinal Surveys, Unique Data On Protest Behavior, And Extensive Fieldwork In The Post-soviet Region, Rosenfeld Documents How The Failure Of The Middle Class To Gain Economic Autonomy From The State Stymies Support For Political Change, And How State Economic Engagement Reduces Middle-class Demands For Democracy And Weakens Prodemocratic Coalitions. The Autocratic Middle Class Makes A Vital Contribution To The Study Of Democratization, Showing How Dependence On The State Weakens The Incentives Of Key Societal Actors To Prefer And Pursue Democracy.