The Ascendancy of Regional Powers in Contemporary US-China Relations: Rethinking the Great Power Rivalry (Global Foreign Policy Studies)

Great power competition is back on the world stage, and today’s international system is home to regional influences on great power relations that cannot be ignored. The United States’ unipolar moment is long over, and China’s hegemonic ambitions find expression in a comprehensive global competition with the US that plays out across multiple spheres of world politics. The US-China rivalry can be felt in geostrategic, economic, governance, diplomacy, intelligence, and technological spheres, to name a few. Most accounts of China-US relations in the context of great power conflict emphasize the many ways in which this rivalry has a ripple effect across the globe, with an impact upon the relations and interests of smaller powers. And while these effects are considerable and important, this book contends that attention must also be paid to the ways in which smaller, regional states have the potential to shape this great power rivalry. Put simply, great powers both shape, and are shaped by, smaller states. Any understanding of contemporary great power relations between the US and China requires both a top down, but also a bottom up consideration of the interplay between great powers and regional ones. Often the interests of regional powers are rooted in domestic considerations such as their identities and national interests, and these influences transcend borders and often have an impact upon the great powers. This book considers these smaller, regional actors and attempts to measure the extent to which they influence the US-China rivalry. For this study, constructivist theory, which prioritizes the agency that regional powers enjoy, is loosely used as a tool to enable a more robust and comprehensive understanding of the influences on the contemporary great power relationship. Each of the book’s chapters represents a region, or part of a region, that enjoys a considerable impact upon US-China relations. Contents Notes on Contributors List of Figures Chapter 1: Introduction: Rethinking and Reframing the Great Power Rivalry Framing the Book’s Approach The Structure of the Book References Chapter 2: Contemporary US-China Relations: From Engagement to Competition Introduction A History of Engagement and Competition The New Rivalry: Cold War 2.0? Conclusion References Chapter 3: A Potential Flashpoint: South Asia in the U.S.-China Great Power Competition Introduction Theoretical Explanation of the Regional Powers’ Policies Natural Partners: India-U.S. Relations Russian Invasion of Ukraine Inevitable Competition: Sino-India Relations Conclusion References Chapter 4: The Material and Ideational Forces Behind Japan’s Shifting Identity in the Face of the China-US Rivalry Introduction The Role of Identity in Japan’s Great Power Relations “Choosing Sides” in a Globalized Era: This is Not Your Father’s Cold War Japan’s New Security Strategy Documents Kishida’s Visit to the US China’s Reaction to the New Strategy Documents Japan in US-China Relations Japan and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine An Evolutionary Security Strategy Theory, Identity, and Japan’s Relations with the US Conclusion References Chapter 5: From Hedging to Balancing: Australia’s China Policy and Implications for US-China Rivalry Introduction From Hedging to Balancing: A Theoretical Exploration We Don’t Have to Pick a Side! Australia’s Hedging and US-China Relations The End of Structural Uncertainty and Australia’s Balancing Against China Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Its Implications Conclusion References Chapter 6: The Kingmaker’s Conundrum: South Korea Navigating the Sino-US Peer Competition Introduction Framing the Status Quo of Instability in Northeast Asia The Power of the Weak Paradox Park’s Bittersweet Hedge Through Trustpolitik Moon’s Balanced Diplomacy Yoon Hews the Hedge Toward a Regional Kingmaker’s Conundrum? References Chapter 7: ASEAN’s Agency in the US-China Rivalry: Small-State Hedging Across the Twin Chessboards Introduction Smaller State Agency and Group Hedging: A Framework ASEAN in Global Power Competition ASEAN’s Agency on the Military Chessboard: The Case of ADMM-Plus ASEAN’s Agency on the Non-military Chessboard: The Case of the RCEP Conclusion References Chapter 8: Last Among Unequals: Russia and the Contemporary Great Power Rivalry Introduction The Role of Theory in Explaining Russia’s Great Power Calculations Alignment with China Advances Russia’s Foreign Policy Goals Conclusion References Chapter 9: New Europe or the New Silk Road? Central, East and Southeast Europe Amid US-China Rivalry Introduction New Europe New Silk Road The US Confronts China in CESEE CESEE Response to the Sino-American Rivalry Shifting Attitudes Subregional and Cross-country Variance How Has CESEE Affected US-China Relations? Epilogue: Impact of the Ukraine War References Chapter 10: The EU’s Strategic Readjustment and Its Impact on US-China Relations Rivalry for Systemic Advantage and Human Rights Rivalry for Regional Influence: From Taiwan to the South China Sea Rivalry: From Regional Strategy to Global Strategy Rivalry for Digital Technology Conclusion References Chapter 11: Never Going to Let You Go: The Middle East, Great Power Competition, and the Rise of China Introduction The Middle East Takes Center Stage: the First Gulf War The First Gulf War and Middle East Peace Process The War on Terror and the Invasion of Iraq The Obama Presidency The Arab Uprisings The JCPOA and Iran The Trump Presidency The Biden Presidency The Rise of China China in the Middle East A Middle East Realignment? Conclusion References Chapter 12: Stoking USA-China Rivalry: Zimbabwe and the Internationalization of Its Anti-Sanctions Agenda Introduction Sanctions in International Politics Strategic Internationalization Fighting Back Against the International Sanctions Regime: The Case of Zimbabwe Diplomatic Strategy Ideology and Interest Alignment Strategy Toward Stoking the US-China Rivalry in International Politics Conclusion References Chapter 13: Latin America’s Role in Great Power Competition Introduction: A Hesitant Hemisphere Theoretical Framework: Structural Realism v. Constructivism Mexico and Brazil Brazil Mexico Comparative Analysis of Brazil and Mexico Regional Organizations The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and the Organization of American States (OAS) Conclusion References Chapter 14: Managing the Sino-American Rivalry in the Arctic Introduction Framing the US-China Arctic Relationship The Arctic and Instruments of National Power Diplomacy Information and Science Military Economic China-US Arctic Relations and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Conclusion References Chapter 15: Conclusion Index