The Art of Decision Making : Mirrors of Imagination, Masks of Fate

Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb) This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different. Examples showcased include: The Hatfield rail crash The Kursk submarine disaster The Challenger disaster The year 2000 fuel crisis The WWII Dardanelles expedition The Barings Bank collapse The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy The King's Cross underground fire The Millennium Dome This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success. The Art of Decision Making......Page 4 Contents......Page 10 Acknowledgements......Page 16 Introduction......Page 18 The questions......Page 22 The imagined world......Page 23 Shifting tides......Page 24 The ripening of events......Page 25 Are you competent or lucky?......Page 26 1 The Clock That Struck Thirteen: The Challenge of Sense Making......Page 28 ‘Two dead fish’......Page 30 Hanged in the middle of the play......Page 34 The clock that struck twelve?......Page 38 The clock that really did strike thirteen......Page 41 The perils of experience......Page 44 Turning a drama into a crisis......Page 45 ‘It can’t be’......Page 47 2 The Morning After......Page 52 The lantern and the mirror......Page 53 ‘Oh what have you done?’......Page 55 Rolls meets Royce......Page 59 Divorce your husband without him noticing......Page 60 Sentence first, verdict later......Page 63 The ghosts of Christmas......Page 64 The magnolia years......Page 66 The lantern flickers......Page 67 3 The Dark Side of the Moon......Page 71 An imagined world......Page 73 Received images......Page 75 The dark side of the moon......Page 77 Love is like . . . ?......Page 80 Hidden possibilities......Page 82 From hell......Page 84 Strangled by a dish of eels......Page 85 All that jazz......Page 88 4 Ghosts and Shadows: Reflections on Information and Decision Making......Page 94 Green light spells danger......Page 96 Do you understand?......Page 97 Painting God......Page 100 Creating confusion......Page 103 Ghosts and shadows......Page 104 5 Tricks of Mind......Page 109 Déjà vu?......Page 111 Weigh anchor......Page 114 ‘It could be you’......Page 116 ‘Wow! Grab it!’......Page 119 ‘Too soon deject and too soon elate’......Page 121 Ending the pain......Page 122 6 The Essential Lie: Exploring the Myth-making Process......Page 123 Building on mud......Page 126 Dressed to kill......Page 128 Waving the magic wand......Page 130 Writing the hymn sheet......Page 131 Singing from the hymn sheet......Page 134 The essential lie......Page 135 The suspicion of witchcraft......Page 137 ‘Then came the cat’......Page 140 ‘An intensity beyond belief’......Page 141 7 High Tides and Green Grass: The Illusion of Control......Page 144 Illusion......Page 145 ‘Feel lucky, punk?’......Page 147 Lightning strikes......Page 149 Illusion piles upon illusion......Page 150 Fine tuning the odds......Page 153 ‘Like a child’s sparkler’......Page 158 ‘A fire the size of a cardboard box’......Page 159 ‘Make pumps 4-persons reported’......Page 160 High tides and green grass – in the desert......Page 162 8 Tales of the Unexpected: Exploring the Paradox of Consequence......Page 165 ‘Kickback’: the paradox of consistency......Page 166 Problems, problems......Page 169 The hunter becomes the hunted......Page 172 Winner’s curse......Page 173 The tale of the boilerman......Page 174 The Icarus paradox......Page 176 A runaway bull......Page 177 The tragedy of the commons......Page 179 ‘It was a crucial decision, it was the wrong one’......Page 180 Brilliant and daft......Page 182 Chance has got nothing to do with it......Page 187 9 Riding a Tiger: Escalation in Decision Making......Page 189 Mounting a tiger......Page 191 Hidden depths......Page 194 Promises, promises......Page 198 All is human......Page 200 Keeping up appearances......Page 202 Hell hath no fury......Page 204 Money sunk and lost......Page 205 The march of folly......Page 210 Tomorrow and tomorrow......Page 212 10 ‘An Ace of Success’: Knocking at the Door of Fate......Page 214 The events unfold......Page 215 ‘An ace of success’......Page 225 Escalation......Page 226 Shifting sands......Page 227 Fiasco becomes inevitable......Page 229 Trusting to luck......Page 230 The fortunes of war......Page 231 11 The Point of No Return......Page 233 The scene is a dilapidated hairdresser’s shop......Page 234 ‘I’ve only myself to keep’......Page 237 ‘Don’t clap too loudly’......Page 238 ‘Crisis, what crisis?’......Page 242 ‘Drifting idly towards eternity’......Page 244 Red light spells danger......Page 246 Polishing the chains......Page 249 Clutching the pole......Page 252 Skeletons and cobwebs......Page 254 Rising to the level of events......Page 257 A dog is for life......Page 262 Liars serving truth......Page 265 Take a walk on the wild side......Page 266 Opposites......Page 267 Look hard and look twice......Page 270 Quacks bawling......Page 271 Buying a ‘cut and shut’......Page 273 Fortune favours the brave......Page 274 The illusion of alternatives......Page 276 If at first you don’t succeed . . .......Page 277 Escaping to reality......Page 278 Catch a falling knife......Page 279 Do no harm......Page 280 Squeezing hands......Page 282 Blown off-course......Page 283 Show some emotion?......Page 285 Puzzled as well as beaten......Page 287 Loving to death......Page 289 Why ghosts return to haunt......Page 291 The element of surprise......Page 294 Sweet are the uses of adversity......Page 295 The golden chance......Page 296 Time and tide......Page 297 Epilogue: A Dancing Star......Page 298 Transcendent optimism......Page 301 References......Page 304 Index......Page 316 0471497185 The Art of Decision Making 4 Contents 10 Acknowledgements 16 Introduction 18 The questions 22 Ambiguity lurks 23 The imagined world 23 The rutted road 24 Shifting tides 24 The ripening of events 25 ‘All is human’ 26 Are you competent or lucky? 26 1 The Clock That Struck Thirteen: The Challenge of Sense Making 28 ‘Two dead fish’ 30 Hanged in the middle of the play 34 The clock that struck twelve? 38 The clock that really did strike thirteen 41 The perils of experience 44 Turning a drama into a crisis 45 ‘It can’t be’ 47 2 The Morning After 52 The lantern and the mirror 53 ‘Oh what have you done?’ 55 Rolls meets Royce 59 Divorce your husband without him noticing 60 Sentence first, verdict later 63 The ghosts of Christmas 64 The magnolia years 66 The lantern flickers 67 3 The Dark Side of the Moon 71 An imagined world 73 Received images 75 The dark side of the moon 77 Love is like . . . ? 80 Hidden possibilities 82 From hell 84 Strangled by a dish of eels 85 All that jazz 88 4 Ghosts and Shadows: Reflections on Information and Decision Making 94 Green light spells danger 96 Do you understand? 97 Painting God 100 Creating confusion 103 Ghosts and shadows 104 5 Tricks of Mind 109 Déjà vu? 111 Why bad publicity is better than none 114 Weigh anchor 114 ‘It could be you’ 116 ‘Wow! Grab it!’ 119 ‘Too soon deject and too soon elate’ 121 Ending the pain 122 6 The Essential Lie: Exploring the Myth-making Process 123 Building on mud 126 Dressed to kill 128 Waving the magic wand 130 Writing the hymn sheet 131 Singing from the hymn sheet 134 The essential lie 135 The suspicion of witchcraft 137 ‘Then came the cat’ 140 ‘An intensity beyond belief’ 141 7 High Tides and Green Grass: The Illusion of Control 144 Illusion 145 ‘Feel lucky, punk?’ 147 Lightning strikes 149 Illusion piles upon illusion 150 Nothing succeeds like success? 153 Fine tuning the odds 153 Water seeping 158 ‘Like a child’s sparkler’ 158 ‘A fire the size of a cardboard box’ 159 ‘Make pumps 4-persons reported’ 160 High tides and green grass – in the desert 162 8 Tales of the Unexpected: Exploring the Paradox of Consequence 165 ‘Kickback’: the paradox of consistency 166 Problems, problems 169 The hunter becomes the hunted 172 Winner’s curse 173 The tale of the boilerman 174 The Icarus paradox 176 A runaway bull 177 The tragedy of the commons 179 ‘It was a crucial decision, it was the wrong one’ 180 Brilliant and daft 182 Chance has got nothing to do with it 187 9 Riding a Tiger: Escalation in Decision Making 189 Mounting a tiger 191 Hidden depths 194 Promises, promises 198 All is human 200 Keeping up appearances 202 Hell hath no fury 204 Money sunk and lost 205 The march of folly 210 Tomorrow and tomorrow 212 10 ‘An Ace of Success’: Knocking at the Door of Fate 214 The events unfold 215 ‘An ace of success’ 225 Escalation 226 Shifting sands 227 Fiasco becomes inevitable 229 Trusting to luck 230 The fortunes of war 231 11 The Point of No Return 233 The scene is a dilapidated hairdresser’s shop 234 ‘I’ve only myself to keep’ 237 ‘Don’t clap too loudly’ 238 ‘Crisis, what crisis?’ 242 ‘Drifting idly towards eternity’ 244 Red light spells danger 246 Polishing the chains 249 Clutching the pole 252 Skeletons and cobwebs 254 12 The Art of Decision Making 257 Rising to the level of events 257 A dog is for life 262 Liars serving truth 265 Take a walk on the wild side 266 There’s a rumour going round 267 Opposites 267 Look hard and look twice 270 Quacks bawling 271 Buying a ‘cut and shut’ 273 Fortune favours the brave 274 The illusion of alternatives 276 If at first you don’t succeed . . . 277 Escaping to reality 278 Catch a falling knife 279 Do no harm 280 Squeezing hands 282 Blown off-course 283 Creating luck 285 Show some emotion? 285 Puzzled as well as beaten 287 Ils ne passeront pas 289 Loving to death 289 Why ghosts return to haunt 291 The element of surprise 294 Sweet are the uses of adversity 295 The golden chance 296 Time and tide 297 Epilogue: A Dancing Star 298 Transcendent optimism 301 References 304 Index 316 In a clear and engaging way, this book presents a holistic insight into the nature of risk and decision making, shedding new light on the reasons why the outcome of so many high profile cases and policy failures could have been different. It explores what the non--scientific disciplines add to onea s understanding of risk and uncertainty. The author shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different. This book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success