The 2012 French Presidential Elections : The Inevitable Alternation

Was the victory of François Hollande, the Socialist challenger to Nicolas Sarkozy, inevitable in the 2012 French Presidential elections? This book argues that a combination of economic downturn, policy choices and personal unpopularity meant that the Right-wing incumbent faced an almost impossible task in holding onto power for another five years. The 2012 French Presidential elections marked a watershed moment for the French Left, marking their return to a full term of executive power for the first time since 1981. From early in the campaign, the victory of Fraṅois Hollande appeared inevitable, given the unpopularity of the Right-wing incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the economic crisis afflicting France. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the lead-up to the Presidential elections, including the political landscape, the candidate selection and the campaign. It looks at how each of the ten candidates set out their policy alternatives, and how the Right in particular failed to present the united front necessary to defeat a coherent Left challenge. It also examines the events and outcomes of the subsequent legislative elections, to understand whether these constituency elections now represent anything more than an early plebiscite for the newly elected president The 2012 French Presidential elections marked a watershed moment for the French Left, marking their return to a full term of executive power for the first time since 1981. From early in the campaign, the victory of François Hollande appeared inevitable, given the unpopularity of the Right-wing incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the economic crisis afflicting France. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the lead-up to the Presidential elections, including the political landscape, the candidate selection and the campaign. It looks at how each of the ten candidates set out their policy alternatives, and how the Right in particular failed to present the united front necessary to defeat a coherent Left challenge Front Matter....Pages i-xi Introduction....Pages 1-11 Knowns and Unknowns: Identifying the Critical Spaces of the 2012 Elections....Pages 12-39 Party Cooperation and Conflict: Actors’ Competitive Positioning....Pages 40-64 Candidate Selection Processes and Effects....Pages 65-87 Issues, Policy Debates and Candidate Valence....Pages 88-113 Campaign Events....Pages 114-128 Polls and VP-Functions: Forecasting the Elections....Pages 129-150 The Legislative Elections of June 2012....Pages 151-180 Conclusion....Pages 181-189 Back Matter....Pages 190-216 Was the victory of Francois Hollande, the Socialist challenger to Nicolas Sarkozy, inevitable in the 2012 French Presidential elections? This book argues that a combination of economic downturn, policy choices and personal unpopularity meant that the Right-wing incumbent faced an almost impossible task in holding onto power for another five years.