The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations

The 2003 heat wave that affected much of Europe from June to September bears a close resemblance to what many regional climate models are projecting for summers in the latter part of the 21st century. Model results suggest that under enhanced atmospheric greenhouse‐gas concentrations, summer temperatures are likely to increase by over 4°C on average, with a corresponding increase in the frequency of severe heat waves. Statistical features of the 2003 heat wave for the Swiss site of Basel are investigated and compared to both past, 20th century events and possible future extreme temperatures based on model simulations of climatic change. For many purposes, the 2003 event can be used as an analog of future summers in coming decades in climate impacts and policy studies.

Climate change has become a reality and further and accelerating change is expected over the next few decades It is likely that the UK will experience milder winters and hotter and more extreme summers. These changes will impact on building performance, particularly with regard to cooling and ventilation, with implications for the quality of the indoor environment, energy consumption and carbon emissions. Assessment of thesefactors at the design stage is currently based on computer simulations made using historical weather data. Such simulations are fundamentally limited therefore in their ability to provide a true picture of future performance: it is possible that a generation of buildings are being constructed that will cope poorly with the demands that future climate will place on their envelopes, interior spaces and systems. There are also important questions regarding existing buildings — how, when and to what extent they will need to be adapted to cope with future climate change.In recognition of the need to provide designers with information to address these important issues, CIBSE, in collaboration with Arup, has produced a set of 'future weather years' that enable building simulation models to be run under projected future climate conditions for the UK over the 21st century. This publication describes the future weather years and the basis for the methodology used to generate them. The data files for the future weather years are available to purchase through the CIBSE Knowledge Portal at www.cibse.org/Knowledge.

Climate change has become a reality and further and accelerating change is expected over the next few decades. It is likely that the UK will experience milder winters and hotter and more extreme summers. These changes will impact on building performance, particularly with regard to cooling and ventilation, with implications for the quality of the indoor environment, energy consumption and carbon emissions. Assessment of these factors at the design stage is currently based on computer simulations made using historical weather data. Such simulations are fundamentally limited therefore in their ability to provide a true picture of future performance: it is possible that a generation of buildings are being constructed that will cope poorly with the demands that future climate will place on their envelopes, interior spaces and systems. There are also important questions regarding existing buildings - how, when and to what extent they will need to be adapted to cope with future climate change. -- Provided by publisher 1. Introduction -- -- 2. Adaptation to climate change: Adaptation and mitigation ; The need for adaptation ; Climate change scenarios ; Policy and frameworks -- -- 3. Hourly weather data: The CIBSE weather years ; CIBSE test reference year ; CIBSE design summer year ; Uses of hourly weather data -- -- 4. Global climate change scenarios: General circulation models ; Emissions scenarios ; IPCC AR4 projections -- -- 5. UK regional climate change projections: Regional scenarios: key concepts ; UKCIP02 ; UKCP09 -- -- 6. Temporal downscaling: generation of the weather years: Dynamical downscaling ; Analogue scenarios ; Time series adjustment ('morphing') ; Statistical models (weather generators) ; Choice of downscaling method -- -- 7. Future developments. -- -- Appendices: -- A1. The morphed weather years ; -- A2. Solar radiation algorithms.