Taking Stock of Shock : Social Consequences of the 1989 Revolutions

Kristen Ghodsee and Mitchell A. Orenstein blend empirical data with lived experiences to produce a robust picture of who won and who lost in post-communist transition, contextualizing the rise of populism in Eastern Europe. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, more than 400 million people suddenly found themselves in a new reality, a dramatic transition from state socialist and centrally planned workers' states to liberal democracy (in most cases) and free markets. Thirty years later, postsocialist citizens remain sharply divided on the legacies of transition. Was it a success that produced great progress after a short recession, or a socio-economic catastrophe foisted on the East by Western capitalists? Taking Stock of Shock aims to uncover the truth using a unique, interdisciplinary investigation into the social consequences of transition―including the rise of authoritarian populism and xenophobia. Showing that economic, demographic, sociological, political scientific, and ethnographic research produce contradictory results based on different disciplinary methods and data, Kristen Ghodsee and Mitchell Orenstein triangulate the results. They find that both the J-curve model, which anticipates sustained growth after a sharp downturn, and the "disaster capitalism" perspective, which posits that neoliberalism led to devastating outcomes, have significant basis in fact. While substantial percentages of the populations across a variety of postsocialist countries enjoyed remarkable success, prosperity, and progress, many others suffered an unprecedented socio-economic catastrophe. Ghodsee and Orenstein conclude that the promise of transition still remains elusive for many and offer policy ideas for overcoming negative social and political consequences. "Using an interdisciplinary approach, this book evaluates the social consequences of the post-1989 transition from state socialism to free market capitalism across Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Blending ethnographic accounts with economic, demographic, and public opinion data, Ghodsee and Orenstein provide insight into the development of new, unequal, social orders. It explores the contradictory narratives on transition promoted by Western international institutions and their opponents, one of qualified success and another of epic catastrophe, and surprisingly shows that data support both narratives, for different countries, regions, and people. While many citizens of the postsocialist countries experienced significant progress in living standards and life satisfaction, enabling them to catch up with the West after a relatively brief recession, others suffered demographic and social collapses resulting from rising economic precarity; large scale degradation of social welfare that came with privatization; and growing gender, class, and regional disparities that have accompanied neoliberal reforms. Transition recessions lasted for decades in many countries, exceeding the US Great Depression in severity. Some countries still have not returned to pre-1989 levels of economic production or mortality; some have lost more than one-fifth of their population and are projected to lose more. Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, this book deploys a sweeping array of data from different social science fields to provide a more holistic perspective on the successes and failures of transition, while unpacking the failed assumptions and narratives of Western institutions, Eastern policymakers, and citizens of former socialist states"-- Provided by publisher Using an interdisciplinary approach, this book evaluates the social consequences of the post-1989 transition from state socialism to free market capitalism across Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Blending ethnographic accounts with economic, demographic, and public opinion data, it provides insight into the development of new, unequal, social orders. It explores the contradictory narratives on transition promoted by Western international institutions and their opponents, one of qualified success and another of epic catastrophe, and surprisingly shows that data support both narratives, for different countries, regions, and people. While many citizens of the postsocialist countries experienced significant progress in living standards and life satisfaction, enabling them to catch up with the West after a relatively brief recession, others suffered demographic and social collapses resulting from rising economic precarity; large-scale degradation of social welfare that came with privatization; and growing gender, class, and regional disparities that have accompanied neoliberal reforms. Transition recessions lasted for decades in many countries, exceeding the US Great Depression in severity. Some countries still have not returned to pre-1989 levels of economic production or mortality; some have lost more than one-fifth of their population and are projected to lose more. Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, this book deploys a sweeping array of data from different social science fields to provide a more holistic perspective on the successes and failures of transition while unpacking the failed assumptions and narratives of Western institutions, Eastern policymakers, and citizens of former socialist states. Tras la caída del Muro de Berlín en 1989, más de 400 millones de personas se encontraron de repente con una nueva realidad, una dramática transición de Estados socialistas de Estado y de planificación centralizada de los trabajadores a la democracia liberal (en la mayoría de los casos) y el libre mercado. Treinta años después, los ciudadanos postsocialistas siguen muy divididos sobre los legados de la transición. ¿Fue un éxito que produjo un gran progreso tras una breve recesión, o una catástrofe socioeconómica endosada al Este por los capitalistas occidentales?Taking Stock of Shock pretende desvelar la verdad mediante una investigación interdisciplinar única sobre las consecuencias sociales de la transición, incluido el auge del populismo autoritario y la xenofobia. Demostrando que la investigación económica, demográfica, sociológica, politológica y etnográficay etnográfica arrojan resultados contradictorios basados en métodos y datos disciplinarios diferentes, Kristen Ghodsee y Mitchell Orenstein triangulan los resultados. Llegan a la conclusión de que tanto el modelo de la curva en J, que anticipa un crecimiento sostenido tras una fuerte recesión, como la perspectiva del "capitalismo del desastre", que postula que el neoliberalismo condujo a resultados devastadores, tienen una base significativa en los hechos. Mientras que porcentajes sustanciales de la población de diversos países postsocialistas disfrutaron de un éxito notable,prosperidad y progreso, muchos otros sufrieron una catástrofe socioeconómica sin precedentes. Ghodsee y Orenstein concluyen que la promesa de la transición sigue siendo esquiva para muchos y ofrecen ideas políticas para superar las consecuencias sociales y políticas negativas cover 1 Taking Stock of Shock 4 Copyright 5 Contents 8 Dedication 6 List of Figures 10 List of Tables 12 Acknowledgments 14 Authors’ Note on Terminology 16 Introduction: Transition from Communism—​Qualified Success or Utter Catastrophe? 20 Part I The Economic Evidence 38 1. The Plan for a J-​Curve Transition 40 2. Plan Meets Reality 47 3. Modifying the Framework 66 4. Counternarratives of Catastrophe 74 Part II The Demographic Evidence 84 5. Where Have All the People Gone? 86 6. The Mortality Crisis 93 7. Collapse in Fertility 105 8. The Out-​Migration Crisis 112 Part III The Public Opinion Evidence 124 9. Disappointment with Transition 126 10. Public Opinion of Winners and Losers 133 11. Attitudes Shift over Time 141 12. Toward a New Social Contract? 154 Part IV The Ethnographic Evidence 172 13. Portraits of Desperation 174 14. Resistance Is Futile 185 15. Return to the Past 193 16. The Patriotism of Despair 198 Conclusion: Toward an Inclusive Prosperity 202 Appendix: Data Sources 226 Notes 232 Selected Bibliography 262 Index 282 After the Cold War ended, more than 400 million people found themselves in the transition from state socialism and central planning to liberal democracy (in most cases) and free markets. Residents' evaluations of the transition are sharply divided, echoing the contradictory images presented by different social science disciplines. 'Taking Stock of the Shock' presents an interdisciplinary view of the transition process. Kristen Ghodsee and Mitchell A. Orenstein blend the empirical data with lived experiences to produce a robust picture of who has won and who has lost in the post-socialist system, contextualizing the rise of populism in Eastern Europe Introduction: Transition from communism - qualified success or utter catastrophe? -- The plan for a J-curve transition -- Plan meets reality -- Modifying the framework -- Counter-narratives of catastrophe -- Where have all the people gone? -- The mortality crisis -- Collapse in fertility -- Outmigration crisis -- Disappointment with transition -- Public opinion of winners and losers -- Evaluations shift over time -- Towards a new social contract? -- Portraits of desperation -- Resistance is futile -- Return to the past -- The patriotism of despair -- Conclusion: Towards an inclusive prosperity