Sustainable Transportation Options for the 21st Century and Beyond : A Comprehensive Comparison of Alternatives to the Internal Combustion Engine

This book includes an in-depth analysis of the environmental and energy security impacts of replacing the internal combustion engine vehicle with various forms of electric vehicles and replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with alternative fuels including electricity, hydrogen and biofuels. In addition to a detailed ℓ́ℓwell-to-wheelsℓ́ℓ analysis of local air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and oil consumption for each alternative vehicle, the book estimates the market penetration potential of each fuel/vehicle combination to determine the most likely societal impact of each alternative vehicle pathway. To support the market penetration estimates, the book analyses the likely cost of each alternative vehicle in mass production and the cost of installing the necessary fuel infrastructure to support each option. The book provides sufficient detail to allow decision makers in governments and industry to choose among the alternative vehicle/fuel combinations that will lead to a truly sustainable transportation system Foreword 5 Acknowledgments 9 Contents 11 Abbreviations 15 1 Introduction 17 Reference 21 2 Societal RequirementsGoals for a Sustainable Transportation System 22 Abstract 22 2.1 Greenhouse Gas Emission Requirements 23 2.2 Dependence on Finite Fossil Fuels 25 2.3 Local Air Pollution 29 References 31 3 Alternative Vehicle and Fuel Options 33 Abstract 33 3.1 Electric Vehicles 33 3.1.1 Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) 33 3.1.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) 34 3.1.3 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) 35 3.1.4 Biofuel PHEVs 35 3.1.5 Hydrogen-Powered Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) 36 3.2 Other Alternative Fuel Vehicles 37 3.2.1 Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) 38 3.2.2 Diesel-Fueled Internal Combustion Vehicles (ICVs) 38 References 38 4 Alternative Vehicle Market Potential 39 Abstract 39 4.1 Range Limitations 39 4.2 Fueling Time Limitations 41 4.3 Size Limitations 43 4.4 Market Surveys 43 4.5 BEV Market Potential 44 References 45 5 Alternative Vehicle Cost Estimates 46 Abstract 46 5.1 Initial Capital Costs 46 5.1.1 Battery Electric Vehicles 46 5.1.1.1 Battery Costs 46 5.1.2 Electric MotorController Costs 47 5.2 FCEV Cost 48 5.2.1 Fuel Cell System Costs 49 5.3 Hydrogen Storage Costs 49 5.3.1 Peak Power Battery Costs 49 5.4 Summary of EV “Bottom-Up” Cost Estimates 50 5.5 MIT EV Cost Estimates 50 5.6 McKinsey & Company Cost Estimates 51 References 54 6 Fuel Infrastructure Cost 55 Abstract 55 6.1 Hydrogen Fueling Stations 55 6.2 Battery Charging Stations 57 6.3 McKinsey & Company Infrastructure Cost Estimates 60 References 61 7 Computer Simulation Model Scenarios 62 Abstract 62 7.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Scenario 62 7.2 Gasoline Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Scenario 63 7.3 Biofuel PHEV scenario 64 7.4 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Scenario 66 7.5 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) Scenario 67 Reference 69 8 Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Alternative Vehicles 70 Abstract 70 8.1 Near-Term (Through 2035) GHG Emissions Without Climate Change Legislation 75 8.2 Long-Term GHG Emissions with Climate Change Legislation 77 References 81 9 Projected Oil Consumption for Alternative Vehicles 82 Abstract 82 9.1 Near-Term Oil Consumption Projections 82 9.2 Long-Term Oil Consumption Projections 84 10 Local Air Pollution 87 Abstract 87 References 89 11 Natural Gas and Diesel Hybrid Electric Vehicles 90 Abstract 90 11.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 90 11.2 Oil Imports 93 11.3 Local Air Pollution 94 11.4 Conclusions 95 11.4.1 Diesel HEV Conclusions 95 11.4.2 Natural Gas HEV Conclusions 95 12 State and International Alternative Vehicle Activities 96 Abstract 96 12.1 Federal Fuel Cell R&D 96 12.2 State Fuel Cell Initiatives 97 12.2.1 California 97 12.3 International Fuel Cell Programs 98 12.3.1 Japan 98 12.3.2 Germany 98 12.3.3 Scandinavia 98 12.3.4 UK 98 12.3.5 South Korea 99 References 99 13 Waste to Hydrogen 100 Abstract 100 13.1 Tri-Gen System Description 100 13.2 Tri-Gen System Cost Estimates 102 13.3 Cost Savings 103 13.3.1 Reduced Electricity Costs 103 13.3.2 Reduced Heating Costs 103 13.3.3 Hydrogen Sales Income 104 13.3.4 Annual Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Costs 105 13.3.5 Net Annual Cost Savings 106 13.4 Number of FCEVs on the Road 106 13.5 Detailed Cash Flow Analysis of Tri-Gen Hydrogen Fueling Stations 107 13.6 Impact of Lower Gasoline Prices 110 13.7 Tri-Gen WWTF Economic Performance in Other Areas of the Country 111 13.8 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Oil Consumption with Hydrogen Made from Wastewater Treatment Plant Waste 115 13.8.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions with WWTP Hydrogen 115 13.8.2 Hydrogen Production Potential from Biogas 115 13.8.3 Oil Consumption with WWTP Hydrogen 116 References 116 14 Automobile Companies on FCEVs 117 Abstract 117 14.1 DaimlerChrysler 117 14.2 Ford 117 14.3 GM 117 14.4 Honda Motor 118 14.5 Toyota 118 15 Conclusions 120 Abstract 120 15.1 Transportation Conclusions 120 15.1.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 120 15.1.2 Petroleum Consumption 121 15.1.3 Fuel Infrastructure Cost 122 15.1.4 Urban Air Pollution 122 15.1.5 Alternative Vehicle Cost 122 15.2 Electricity Generation 123 15.2.1 Clean Coal Hydrogen and Electricity Generation 123 15.2.2 Hydrogen as Storage Pathway to Enable More Intermittent Renewable Utilization 124 15.3 Final Summary Conclusions 124 References 125 Appendix ARange Limitations of Battery Electric Vehicles 126 Appendix BDistribution of Vehicles by Class 144 Appendix CEstimated Future US Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, Vehicles on the Road, and Number of Miles Driven Annually 149 Appendix DMarginal Grid Mixes 162 Appendix ECapital Cost of Equipment to Produce Hydrogen, Heat, and Electricity at Wastewater Treatment Plants 172 This book includes an in-depth analysis of the environmental and energy security impacts of replacing the internal combustion engine vehicle with various forms of electric vehicles and replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with alternative fuels including electricity, hydrogen and biofuels. In addition to a detailed ĺlwell-to-wheelsĺl analysis of local air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and oil consumption for each alternative vehicle, the book estimates the market penetration potential of each fuel/vehicle combination to determine the most likely societal impact of each alternative vehicle pathway. To support the market penetration estimates, the book analyses the likely cost of each alternative vehicle in mass production and the cost of installing the necessary fuel infrastructure to support each option. The book provides sufficient detail to allow decision makers in governments and industry to choose among the alternative vehicle/fuel combinations that will lead to a truly sustainable transportation system Front Matter....Pages i-xvi Introduction....Pages 1-5 Societal Requirements/Goals for a Sustainable Transportation System....Pages 7-17 Alternative Vehicle and Fuel Options....Pages 19-24 Alternative Vehicle Market Potential....Pages 25-31 Alternative Vehicle Cost Estimates....Pages 33-41 Fuel Infrastructure Cost....Pages 43-49 Computer Simulation Model Scenarios....Pages 51-58 Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Alternative Vehicles....Pages 59-70 Projected Oil Consumption for Alternative Vehicles....Pages 71-75 Local Air Pollution....Pages 77-79 Natural Gas and Diesel Hybrid Electric Vehicles....Pages 81-86 State and International Alternative Vehicle Activities....Pages 87-90 Waste to Hydrogen....Pages 91-107 Automobile Companies on FCEVs....Pages 109-111 Conclusions....Pages 113-118 Back Matter....Pages 119-182