Subjective Probability

"This book presents a broad ranging view of subjective probability. Chapters range from the discussions of the philosophy of axiom systems through to studies in the psychological laboratory and then to the real world of business decision-making. Topics covered include subjective probability in statistical inference and expert systems, the treatment of causality in laboratory studies and in scenario planning, whether Man is a Bayesian thinker or a frequentist thinker, descriptive and normative theories of subjective probability, confidence and performance, and subjective probability in gambling and court-room decisions — a wide range of topics. Nevertheless, underpinning all the topics and approaches is a fundamental desire, on the part of the authors, to analyse and document the human ability to deal with uncertainty — no easy task. The multidisciplinary nature of this volume — which includes authorities who are psychologists, philosophers, statisticians, management scientists, educationalists, and corporate planners — illustrates the essentially human challenge of this enormous project. The book is organized into four major parts. The first, \_Background\_, provides the philosophical and statistical foundations. The second, \_Studies in the Psychological Laboratory\_, overviews theory and research in cognitive and developmental psychology. The third, \_Accuracy of Probability Judgements\_, focuses on theories and models that allow assessment of the quality of assessed probabilities. The fourth, \_Real World Studies\_, reviews subjective probability judgement in situations that have material consequences for the decision-makers." - List of Contributors - Preface PART ONE: BACKGROUND 1. Chapter 1: "Foundations", Dennis Lindley 2. Chapter 2: "Qualitative Theory of Subjective Probability", Patrick Suppes 3. Chapter 3: "Probability, Uncertainty and the Practice of Statistics", Colin Howson and Peter Urbach 4. Chapter 4: "The Subjective Aspect of Probability", Glenn Shafer 5. "On the Necessity of Probability: Reasons to Believe and Grounds for Doubt", John Fox PART TWO: STUDIES IN THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LABORATORY 6. Chapter 6: "Laboratory Studies of Subjective Probability: a Status Report", Lee Roy Beach and Gary P. Braun 7. Chapter 7: "Why the Distinction between Single-event Probabilities and Frequencies is Important for Psychology (and Vice Versa)", Gerd Gigerenzer 8. Chapter 8: "Subjective Probability: What Should We Believe?", Peter Ayton and George Wright 9. Chapter 9: "Applying a Cognitive Perspective to Probability Construction", Shawn P. Curley & P. George Benson 10. Chapter 10: "Variants of Subjective Probabilities; Concepts, Norms, and Biases", Karl Halvor Teigen 11. Chapter 11: "The Origins of Probability Judgment; a Review of Data and Theories", Valerie F. Reyna and Charles J. Brainerd 12. Chapter 12: "Ambiguous Probabilities and the Paradoxes of Expected Utility", Jonathan Baron and Deborah Frisch 13. Chapter 13: "Risk Perception: Main Issues, Approaches and Findings", Wibecke Brun 14. Chapter 14: "Relations between Confidence and Skilled Performance", Nigel Harvey 15. Chapter 15: "The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function in a Fruitless Search", Ruma Falk, Abigail Lipson and Clifford Konold PART THREE: ACCURACY OF PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS 16. Chapter 16: "Subjective Probability Accuracy Analysis", J. Frank Yates 17. Chapter 17: "Discrete Subjective Probabilities and Decision Analysis: Elicitation, Calibration and Combination", William R. Ferrell 18. Chapter 18: "The Calibration of Subjective Probabilities: Theories and Models 1980-94", Alastair G.R. McClelland and Fergus Bolger PART FOUR: REAL-WORLD STUDIES 19. Chapter 19: "The Rationality of Gambling: Gamblers' Conceptions of Probability, Chance and Luck", Gideon Keren 20. Chapter 20: "Uncertainty and Subjective Probability in AI Systems", Paul J. Krause and Dominic A. Clark 21. Chapter 21: "The Subjective Probability of Guilt", Willem A. Wagenaar 22. Chapter 22: "Probabilistic Planning and Scenario Planning", Kees van der Heijden - Index This Overview Of Subjective Probability Ranges From Discussion Of The Philosophy Of Axiom Systems Through Studies In The Psychological Laboratory To The Real World Of Business Decision-making. Ch. 1. Foundations / Dennis Lindley -- Ch. 2. Qualitative Theory Of Subjective Probability / Patrick Suppes -- Ch. 3. Probability, Uncertainty And The Practice Of Statistics / Colin Howson And Peter Urbach -- Ch. 4. The Subjective Aspect Of Probability / Glenn Shafer -- Ch. 5. On The Necessity Of Probability: Reasons To Believe And Grounds For Doubt / John Fox -- Ch. 6. Laboratory Studies Of Subjective Probability: A Status Report / Lee Roy Beach And Gary P. Braun -- Ch. 7. Why The Distinction Between Single-event Probabilities And Frequencies Is Important For Psychology (and Vice Versa) / Gerd Gigerenzer -- Ch. 8. Subjective Probability: What Should We Believe? / Peter Ayton And George Wright -- Ch. 9. Applying A Cognitive Perspective To Probability Construction / Shawn P. Curley And P. George Benson -- Ch. 10. Variants Of Subjective Probabilities; Concepts, Norms, And Biases / Karl Halvor Teigen. Ch. 11. The Origins Of Probability Judgment; A Review Of Data And Theories / Valerie F. Reyna And Charles J. Brainerd -- Ch. 12. Ambiguous Probabilities And The Paradoxes Of Expected Utility / Jonathan Baron And Deborah Frisch -- Ch. 13. Risk Perception: Main Issues, Approaches And Findings / Wibecke Brun -- Ch. 14. Relations Between Confidence And Skilled Performance / Nigel Harvey -- Ch. 15. The Ups And Downs Of The Hope Function In A Fruitless Search / Ruma Falk, Abigail Lipson And Clifford Konold -- Ch. 16. Subjective Probability Accuracy Analysis / J. Frank Yates -- Ch. 17. Discrete Subjective Probabilities And Decision Analysis: Elicitation, Calibration And Combination / William R. Ferrell -- Ch. 18. The Calibration Of Subjective Probabilities: Theories And Models 1980-94 / Alastair G. R. Mcclelland And Fergus Bolger -- Ch. 19. The Rationality Of Gambling: Gamblers' Conceptions Of Probability, Chance And Luck / Gideon Keren. Ch. 20. Uncertainty And Subjective Probability In Ai Systems / Paul J. Krause And Dominic A. Clark -- Ch. 21. The Subjective Probability Of Guilt / Willem A. Wagenaar -- Ch. 22. Probabilistic Planning And Scenario Planning / Kees Van Der Heijden. Edited By George Wright And Peter Ayton. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Prominent authorities from multiple disciplines analyze and document the human ability to deal with uncertainty. Coverage ranges from discussions of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the reality of business decision making.