Stumbling on wins : two economists expose the pitfalls on the road to victory in professional sports

“This book takes the hallowed traditions of sports decision-making and pokes them with a sharp stick.” –**Henry Abbott**, founder of TrueHoop, housed at ESPN.com “__Moneyball__ should have been called ‘MoneyBaseball.’ __Stumbling On Wins__ covers everything else. Every general manager needs to buy this book to save his owner money. Every fan needs to buy this book to know when it makes sense to yell at the general manager.” —**Darren Rovell**, CNBC Sports Business Reporter “This is an important book. Berri and Schmidt have been leaders of the revolution in the analysis of team performance in sports and, in this book, they explain why coaches, players, and fans cannot afford to ignore the stats if they want to win. __Moneyball__ gave us an inkling of what is to come, but this is the real deal.” –**Stefan Szymanski**, author of Soccernomics and __Playbooks and Checkbooks__ “__Stumbling On Wins__ lays it all out—a roadmap of behavioral economics, that runs straight through your favorite sports arena. Brilliant stuff, beautifully written, and sure to captivate any student of economics or sports.” —**Justin Wolfers**, Associate Professor of Business and Public Policy, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; writer for Freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com “Berri and Schmidt are true pioneers of modern sports economics, proving time and again that sports are the perfect laboratory for social science research. __Stumbling On Wins__ reveals that sports are more than entertainment; they tell us something important about ourselves.” –**J.C. Bradbury**, author of __The Baseball Economist__ “This book isn’t just about sports statistics. In __Stumbling On Wins__, Berri and Schmidt have a compelling story to tell about how people make decisions in sports, and the stats narrate the story. This is a fresh and revealing look at how decision-makers frequently miss the mark and how they can do better.” —**Brian Burke**, AdvancedNFLStats.com Don’t they want to win? Every sports fan asks that question. And no wonder! Teams have an immense amount of detailed, quantifiable information to draw upon. They have powerful incentives for making good decisions. Everyone sees the results of their choices, and the consequences for failure are severe. And yet, they keep making the same mistakes over and over again...mistakes you’d think they’d learn how to avoid! Now, two leading sports economists reveal those mistakes in basketball, baseball, football, and hockey–and explain why sports decision-makers never seem to learn their lessons. You’ll learn which statistics are linked to wins and which aren’t...and which statistics can predict the future and which can’t (information that just might help you dominate your next fantasy league!). The next quantum leap beyond __Moneyball__, this book offers powerful new insights into all human decision-making. Because if multimillion dollar sports teams are getting it wrong this badly, how do you know you’re not? • Do better coaches really win more? __Phil Jackson versus everyone else__ • The “hot hand ” and other figments of the imagination __Enduring myths of on-court and on-field performance__ • How old is too old? __Are teams playing too many athletes who are past their prime?__ • Are black quarterbacks underpaid? __The curious cases of Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre__

The next quantum leap beyond Moneyball , this book offers powerful new insights into all human decision-making, because if sports teams are getting it wrong this badly, how do you know you're not? Sometimes the decisions that teams make are simply inexplicable. Consider: sports teams have an immense amount of detailed, quantifiable information to draw upon, more than in virtually any other industry. They have powerful incentives for making good decisions. Everyone sees the results of their choices, and the consequences for failure are severe. And yet... they keep making the same mistakes over and over again... systematic mistakes you'd think they'd learn how to avoid. Now, two leading sports economists reveal those mistakes in basketball, baseball, football, and hockey, and explain why sports decision-makers never seem to learn their lessons. You'll learn which statistics are connected to wins, and which aren't, and which statistics can and can't predict the future. Along the way, David Berri and Martin Schmidt show why a quarterback's place in the draft tells you nothing about how he'll perform in the NFL... why basketball decision-makers don't focus on the factors that really correlate with NBA success... why famous coaches don't deliver better results... and much more.

Don't they want to win? Every sports fan asks that question. And no wonder! Teams have an immense amount of detailed, quantifiable information to draw upon. They have powerful incentives for making good decisions. Everyone sees the results of their choices, and the consequences for failure are severe. And yet, they keep making the same mistakes over and over again - mistakes you'd think they'd learn how to avoid! Now, two leading sports economists reveal those mistakes in basketball, baseball, football, and hockey - and explain why sports decision-makers never seem to learn their lessons. You'll learn which statistics are linked to wins and which aren't and which statistics can predict the future and which can't (information that just might help you dominate your next fantasy league!) ... this book offers powerful new insights into all human decision-making This Element is an excerpt from Stumbling On Wins: Two Economists Expose the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory in Professional Sports (9780132357784) by David J. Berri and Martin B. Schmidt. Available in print and digital formats. Why sports decision-makers are wrong so often - and why they keep making the same mistakes, year after year. When Bill James introduced his findings on the importance of on-base percentage-and the unimportance of steals-decision-makers in baseball didn't embrace his work. Their initial reaction fully reflects the lessons of behavioral economics: people have trouble accepting information that contradicts their viewpoints. The same story has been seen again and again across the North American professional sports world. Maybe the fans are right Defending Isiah The search for useful stats Football in black and white Finding the face of the franchise The pareto principle and drafting mistakes Inefficient on the field Is it the teacher or the students? Painting a bigger picture.