Structured analytical techniques for intelligence analysis

This book takes the relatively new concept of structured analytic techniques, defines its place in a taxonomy of analytic methods, and moves it a giant leap forward. It describes 50 techniques that are divided into eight categories. There are techniques for: Decomposition and Visualization Idea Generation Scenarios and Indicators Hypothesis Generation and Testing Cause and Effect Challenge Analysis Conflict Management Decision Support Each structured technique involves a step-by-step process that externalizes an individual analyst s thinking in a manner that makes it readily apparent to others, thereby enabling it to be shared, built on, and easily critiqued by others. This structured and transparent process combined with the intuitive input of subject matter experts is expected to reduce the risk of analytic error. Our current high tech, global environment increasingly requires collaboration between analysts with different areas of expertise and analysts representing different organizational perspectives. Structured analytic techniques are the ideal process for guiding the interaction of analysts within a small team or group. Each step in a technique prompts relevant discussion within the team, and such discussion generates and evaluates substantially more divergent information and more new ideas than a team that does not use a structured process. By defining the domain of structured analytic techniques, providing a manual for using and teaching these techniques, and outlining procedures for evaluating and validating these techniques, this book lays a common ground for continuing improvement of how analysis is done. These techniques are especially needed in the field of intelligence analysis where analysts typically deal with incomplete, ambiguous and sometimes deceptive information. However, these practical tools for analysis are also useful in a wide variety of professions including law enforcement, medicine, finance, and business. Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks. Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins. THE TECHNIQUES Getting Started Checklist Customer Checklist Issue Redefinition Chronologies and Timelines Sorting Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing Matrices Network Analysis Mind Maps and Concept Maps Process Maps and Gantt Charts Structured Brainstorming Virtual Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Starbursting Cross-Impact Matrix Morphological Analysis Quadrant Crunching Basic Scenario Analysis Alternative Futures Analysis Multiple Scenario Generation Indicators Indicators Validator Simple Hypothesis Multiple Hypotheses Generator Quadrant Hypothesis Generation Diagnostic Reasoning Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Argument Mapping Deception Detection Key Assumptions Check Structured Analogies Role Playing Red Hat Analysis Outside-In Thinking Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model Prediction Markets Premortem Analysis Structured Self-Critique What If? Analysis High Impact/Low Probability Analysis Devils Advocacy Red Team Analysis Delphi Method Adversarial Collaboration Structured Debate Complexity Manager Decision Matrix Force Field Analysis Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes SWOT Analysis "Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks. Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins."--Publisher's website