STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE FOLLOWING THE COVID-19 CRISIS : a firm and industry perspective.

Foreword Acknowledgements Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure Executive summary 1 Economic resilience during crisis: Opportunities and challenges from COVID-19 Introduction Roadmap for this publication What made the difference? A summary of factors affecting resilience during COVID-19 Policy recommendations Business dynamics and financial vulnerability (Chapter 4) Supporting productivity through digital technologies (Chapter 5) Industrial and international connectedness (Chapter 6) Inclusiveness across gender and skill groups (Chapter 7) Looking forward From cyclical to structural policies A focus on the green and digital transitions Looking to supply-side measures Supporting skills and human capital References Notes 2 Context of the crisis Introduction Containment measures in response to COVID-19 Support measures in response to containment responses Economic consequences References Notes 3 Resilience across industries Introduction Ability to produce and supply in the short run Essential industries Ability to work remotely Ability to supply remotely Potential supply chain disruptions Indirect demand implications Cyclicality of demand Destination of industry output Liquidity and credit constraints Short-term liquidity needs: Cash conversion cycle Longer-term borrowing constraints and the tangibility of assets Conclusions and policy implications References Notes 4 Business dynamics and financial vulnerabilities Introduction Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm entry and bankruptcies Firm entry Bankruptcies and financial distress Business dynamics Aggregate firm age and firm size structure COVID-19 and long-term declines in business dynamism Corporate financial vulnerability Conclusions and policy implications References Notes 5 Supporting productivity through digital technologies Introduction Adoption of telework Pre-crisis experience with working from home Broadband infrastructure as a necessary condition for connectivity and remote working Digital skills of the population E-commerce and the pre-existing use of digital tools Share of firms with online sales Share of population making online purchases Uptake of cloud computing Productivity during COVID-19 and beyond Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for productivity Pre-existing divides across sectors and firms Conclusions and policy implications References Notes 6 Industrial and international connectedness Introduction Global value chain exposure and centrality Industry composition and the structure of demand Air transport Tourism Conclusions and policy implications References Notes 7 Inclusiveness across gender and skill groups Introduction Gender differences in exposure to employment effects Potential labour demand impacts Factors affecting female labour supply: Household demographic structure and childcare Skills and education differences in exposure to employment effects Conclusion and policy implications References Notes Annex A. Industry dashboard Essential industries Non-essential, high telework potential Non-essential, low telework potential References Notes Annex B. Industry composition by country Reference Annex C. Industry classification Annex D. Examples of government support measures Pre-existing government schemes to support workers Policies enacted to support firms References Notes