Sports Economics: Present and Future Impact on General Economics : Themenheft 3/Bd. 232 (2012) Jahrbücher Für Nationalökonomie Und Statistik

In order to avoid too many tied games after playing the five-minute overtime period, the National Hockey League (NHL) introduced two rule changes in the 1999-2000 season. First, a team that loses in overtime receives one point instead of zero points. Second, the number of skaters in overtime is reduced from five to four. The theoretical literature analyzing these rule changes predicted that they would also produce the unintended side-effect that more games would reach overtime and recommended that a team that wins in regulation should receive three points (instead of two) in order to counterbalance the converse effect. We are the first to empirically support this theoretical prediction using NHL data and data from Swiss ice hockey, in which the rule changes of the NHL were copied in the 2006-2007 season and in which the three-point rule was also introduced. \* We are grateful to Jason Abrevaya, Leif Brandes, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the University of Zurich for helpful comments. Special thanks go to Christian Wassmer and Martin Merk for providing us with the data. Sabrina Biittler provided excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are our own. This article is based on the second author's dissertation. Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich, Switzerland. 7 See Abrevaya (2004: 295). 8 In the NHL and the Swiss NL, both elements were introduced simultaneously. Abrevaya (2004: 298), examined the effects of the separate introduction of element 2 and 4 in the American Hockey League (AHL). He figured out that the introduction of the overtime-loss rule as the only changed element increased the number of games going into overtime in that league. 9 Match data from the NHL combined with the match betting odds show that the probability that the ex-ante better team wins the shootout is lower than a win during the five minute overtime period. Albeit this difference is not big, it is an indication that the incentive effects might be effective for the teams. 10 Note that in the post-change period (2005-2006 to 2008-2009) the shootout rule became effective in the NHL. There are no tied games anymore. But our focus lies on the game status before the shootout. Games ending in a tie after the five-minute overtime play are still possible. 11 The difference is statistically significant with a p-value