Sociological Appraisal of Macroeconomic Forecasting: Economic Models, Economic Policy and Science Studies (Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy, 20)

Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists. Book Cover......Page 1 Title......Page 4 Contents......Page 5 List of figures......Page 10 List of tables......Page 12 List of equations......Page 14 List of models......Page 16 Acknowledgements......Page 18 Who knows what tomorrow brings? Brief introductions to the sociology of scientific knowledge and to economic forecasting......Page 22 Cherished beliefs and t-statistics: how economic models are estimated......Page 45 Extrapolations and expertise: how economic forecasts are made......Page 71 Soothsaying or science? Choosing between economic models......Page 98 Different models: economic forecasts in February 1993......Page 122 Different futures: controversies and disputes in July 1993......Page 149 Difficult choices: policy recommendations in October 1993......Page 174 Economic models, economic policy and science studies......Page 193 Appendix A: equations used in the econometric model......Page 212 Notes......Page 222 Bibliography......Page 235 Interviews......Page 245 Index......Page 246