Socio-Technical Futures Shaping the Present: Empirical Examples and Analytical Challenges (Technikzukünfte, Wissenschaft und Gesellschaft / Futures of Technology, Science and Society)

The exploration of ways to conceptualize the shaping of the present by socio-technical futures is the aim of this volume. Therefore it brings together contributions from Science and Technology Studies and Technology Assessment, which focus all on the question how socio-technical images of the future shape present processes of innovation and transformation starting from empirical case studies and generalizing specific findings or by tackling conceptual questions from the outset. A white paper of 23 authors, which aims to sensitize researchers and practitioners completes the volume. Contents Analytical Concepts, Different Kinds and Patterns of Socio-Technical Futures.- Socio-Technical Futures in Different Processes of Change.- Intervening into the Present Through Prospective Reasoning.- White Paper. Target Groups Researchers and students from social sciences and humanities The Editors Andreas Lösch is senior research scientist at the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) and private lecturer for sociology at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). Armin Grunwald is director of the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), full professor of philosophy and ethics of technology at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and heads the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag (TAB). Martin Meister is a research associate at the Department of Sociology, Chair on Sociology of Technology and Innovation at Technical University of Berlin. Ingo Schulz-Schaeffer is full professor of sociology and head of the sociology of technology and innovation group at the Department of Sociology at Technical University of Berlin Contents 6 Editors and Contributors 8 Introduction: Socio‐Technical Futures Shaping the Present 11 1 Shaping the Present Through Futures 11 2 Some Precursors 13 3 Arrangement of Chapters 17 3.1 Analytical Concepts, Different Kinds and Patterns of Socio-Technical Futures 17 3.2 Socio-Technical Futures in Different Processes of Change 18 3.3 Intervening into the Present Through Prospective Reasoning 19 3.4 White Paper on Technology Assessment and Socio-Technical Futures 20 4 Background of the Volume 21 References 21 Part I Analytical Concepts, Different Kinds and Patterns of Socio-Technical Futures 25 Shaping the Present by Creating and Reflecting Futures 26 Abstract 26 1 Setting the Stage 26 2 Observations: Impacts of NEST Futures on the Present 28 3 Reflections: The Immanence of the Present 32 4 Consequences for Technology Assessment 36 4.1 Awareness-Raising by Trend Extrapolation 39 4.2 Hermeneutic Extension of Technology Assessment 40 4.3 Democratic Dimension: Opening up Futures Instead of Closure 41 5 Concluding Remark 42 References 42 Prototype Scenarios as Negotiation Arenas Between the Present and Imagined Futures. Representation and Negotiation Power in Constructing New Socio-Technical Configurations 45 Abstract 45 1 Introduction 46 2 Situational Scenarios and Their Present and Future Components 48 3 Scenario-Building as Negotiation Process 49 4 Applying the Concept of Arena to Situational Scenarios 50 5 Prototype Scenarios as Negotiation Arenas 52 5.1 Who Represents the Components in Negotiations? 55 5.1.1 Representation by the Imagined Future Users 57 5.1.2 Representation by Independent Expert Knowledge 58 5.1.3 Representation by the Engineers Acting as Competent Users at the Same Time 58 5.1.4 Representation by Everyday Notions and Common Sense Assumptions 58 5.2 Who Represents the Present and Who the Future? 59 6 Empirical Findings 61 6.1 Representation by the Imagined Future Users 61 6.2 Representation by Independent Expert Knowledge 63 6.3 Representation by the Engineers Acting as Competent Users at the Same Time 67 7 Summary 70 References 71 Visionary Practices Shaping Power Constellations 74 Abstract 74 1 Introduction 75 2 The Analytical Concept in the Context of Related Research 77 3 Cases on How Visions as Socio-Epistemic Practices Shape the Present Differently 80 3.1 Big Data: Visionary Practices Stabilizing Power Constellations 80 3.2 Smart Grid: Visionary Practices Rearranging Power Constellations 84 3.3 Fab Labs: Visionary Practices Inventing Power Constellations 87 4 Conclusions and Consequences 90 References 92 Part II Socio-Technical Futures in Different Processes of Change 96 Globalizing Technologies: Geopolitical Innovation in the U.S. Bioeconomy 97 Abstract 97 1 Introduction 97 2 Political Economy of a Bioeconomy 100 3 Pioneering Technologies 104 4 Cultivating Global Markets 107 5 Making and Measuring Markets 112 References 114 The Institutionalization of an Envisioned Future. Sensemaking and Field Formation in the Case of “Industrie 4.0” in Germany 117 Abstract 117 1 Introduction 118 2 The Term “Industrie 4.0” 118 3 Concepts of Socio-Technical Futures 120 3.1 Futures Concepts in STS, a Preliminary Summary 122 4 Envisioned Futures and Sensemaking 123 4.1 Sensemaking 124 4.2 Enactment, Sensegiving and Role Requirements 126 5 Envisioned Futures and the Formation of Fields 127 6 Sensemaking and Envisioned Futures 128 7 “Industrie 4.0” as an Envisioned Future 131 8 Concluding Remarks 140 References 142 Between Past, Present, and Future—The Temporality of Sociotechnical Futures in India’s GM Crops Debate 145 Abstract 145 1 Introduction 146 2 Competing, Conflicting, Contested Futures in India’s GM Crops Debate 148 2.1 Productivity 150 2.2 Environmentalism 152 2.3 Complex Ecology 154 2.4 Seed Sovereignty 156 3 Temporality, Modernity, and STS 160 References 163 Smart City Experimentation in Urban Mobility—Exploring the Politics of Futuring in Hamburg 167 Abstract 167 1 Introduction 168 2 Conceptual Approach 170 3 Methods 173 4 Three Frameworks for Transportation Planning in Hamburg as a Window to Understanding the Politics of Futuring 173 4.1 Comparing Three Frameworks for Planning Transportation Infrastructure in Hamburg 175 4.1.1 The Mobility Program for 2014–2020 175 4.1.2 Intelligent Transportation Strategy (ITS) for Hamburg 177 4.1.3 The H2020 Lighthouse Project “mySMARTLife” in Hamburg-Bergedorf 181 5 Smart City Futures Shaping Transportation Planning Today 184 6 Conclusions 187 References 189 Part III Intervening into the Present Through Prospective Reasoning 192 Reflexive Hermeneutics Against Closing Down Technology Assessment Discourses: The Case of Synthetic Biology 193 Abstract 193 1 Introduction 193 1.1 Futures and Politics in Technology Assessment 194 1.2 Hermeneutic Turn 195 1.3 Reflexive Hermeneutics 197 2 Case: Synthetic Biology 198 2.1 Method 198 2.2 Analysis 200 2.2.1 Precautionary-Proactionary Debate 200 2.2.2 Dual Use and Biosecurity 202 2.2.3 Bioeconomy and Biodiversity 203 2.2.4 Hype Cycle 204 2.2.5 Hype and Exaggerated Claims 205 2.3 Discussion 206 2.3.1 Transatlantic Perspectives 206 2.3.2 Institutional TA Initiatives 207 3 Conclusion 208 References 208 In vitro Meat: The Normative Power of a Vision in the Innovation and Transformation Process 215 Abstract 215 1 Introduction 216 2 The Innovators’ Vision of In vitro Meat 217 3 Assessing the Technical Feasibility of In vitro Meat 221 4 Envisioning the Ethicality of In vitro Meat 224 5 Stakeholders’ Positions on In vitro Meat in Germany 228 6 The Significance of the Results for Technology Assessment 230 References 231 The Naming of the Beast. Scrutinizing Concepts of Technology Rich Futures 234 Abstract 234 1 Introduction 234 2 Theoretical Departure 235 3 Method 237 4 Diversity of Concepts 239 4.1 System of Systems 240 4.2 Ubiquitous Computing 240 4.3 Pervasive Computing 240 4.4 Semantic Web 241 4.5 Ubiquitous Web 241 4.6 Internet of Things 242 4.7 Ambient Intelligence 242 4.8 Smart Environment(s) 243 4.9 Web of Things 244 4.10 Real World Internet 244 4.11 Problems of Diversity 244 5 Conceptual Domains 245 6 Lifecycle of Concepts 247 6.1 From Semantic Web to Internet of Things 248 6.2 From Abstract to Concrete Concepts 248 6.3 The Five Dominating Domains 250 6.4 The Four Domains Less Visible 251 7 Conclusion 252 References 254 Intervening Through Futures for Sustainable Presents: Scenarios, Sustainability, and Responsible Research and Innovation 258 Abstract 258 1 Introduction 259 1.1 Innovation Governance Challenges 260 1.2 Fostering Responsible Research and Innovation. A Capacity-Building Approach 261 2 Linking Responsible Research and Innovation Capacity to Sustainability Competencies 262 3 Scenarios: Futures and Present 264 4 Case Study: The Future of Wastewater Sensing 266 4.1 Selecting Clients, Defining Focal Question and Selecting Participants 268 4.2 Brainstorming Driving Forces 272 4.3 Identifying Critical Uncertainties and Selecting Scenario Axes 272 4.4 Sketching Scenarios and Writing Scenario Narratives 273 4.5 Scenario Narratives and Relevant Key Features 274 4.5.1 Bio.Me Scenario 275 4.5.2 End2End Sensing for the Community 276 4.5.3 Technocrats for the Community 277 4.5.4 Precious Bodily Fluids 277 4.6 Assessing Scenarios and Developing Proposals 279 5 Discussion and Outlook 279 References 281 Part IV White Paper on Technology Assessment and Socio-Technical Futures 286 Technology Assessment of Socio-Technical Futures—A Discussion Paper 287 Summary 289 1 Introduction 290 2 Why Should TA Analyze Socio-Technical Futures? 293 2.1 What are Socio-Technical Futures? 293 2.2 In Which Ways and Where do Socio-Technical Futures Appear? 294 2.3 What is the Effect of Socio-Technical Futures in Present Times? 295 2.4 Why Should TA Deal Critically with Socio-Technical Futures? 295 3 How Could Socio-Technical Futures be Analyzed? 297 3.1 Which Analytical Dimensions Must be Distinguished? 297 3.2 What Must be Taken into Consideration for Deciding About the Analytical Method? 298 4 How Could TA Situate Itself as an Actor of the Processes Under Analysis? 299 4.1 In Which Changing Contexts are Analyses Carried Out by TA? 299 4.2 How Does Contextual Change Affect TA? 301 4.3 How Does TA Situate Itself Between Support and Criticism of Socio-Technical Futures? 302 Recommended Readings 304 Front Matter ....Pages i-ix Introduction: Socio‐Technical Futures Shaping the Present (Andreas Lösch, Armin Grunwald, Martin Meister, Ingo Schulz-Schaeffer)....Pages 1-14 Front Matter ....Pages 15-15 Shaping the Present by Creating and Reflecting Futures (Armin Grunwald)....Pages 17-35 Prototype Scenarios as Negotiation Arenas Between the Present and Imagined Futures. Representation and Negotiation Power in Constructing New Socio-Technical Configurations (Ingo Schulz-Schaeffer, Martin Meister)....Pages 37-65 Visionary Practices Shaping Power Constellations (Andreas Lösch, Reinhard Heil, Christoph Schneider)....Pages 67-88 Front Matter ....Pages 89-89 Globalizing Technologies: Geopolitical Innovation in the U.S. Bioeconomy (Tess Doezema)....Pages 91-110 The Institutionalization of an Envisioned Future. Sensemaking and Field Formation in the Case of “Industrie 4.0” in Germany (Uli Meyer)....Pages 111-138 Between Past, Present, and Future—The Temporality of Sociotechnical Futures in India’s GM Crops Debate (Andreas Mitzschke)....Pages 139-160 Smart City Experimentation in Urban Mobility—Exploring the Politics of Futuring in Hamburg (Philipp Späth, Jörg Knieling)....Pages 161-185 Front Matter ....Pages 187-187 Reflexive Hermeneutics Against Closing Down Technology Assessment Discourses: The Case of Synthetic Biology (Go Yoshizawa)....Pages 189-210 In vitro Meat: The Normative Power of a Vision in the Innovation and Transformation Process (Inge Böhm, Silvia Woll, Arianna Ferrari)....Pages 211-229 The Naming of the Beast. Scrutinizing Concepts of Technology Rich Futures (Jan Nolin, Gustaf Nelhans, Nasrine Olson)....Pages 231-254 Intervening Through Futures for Sustainable Presents: Scenarios, Sustainability, and Responsible Research and Innovation (Lauren Withycombe Keeler, Michael J. Bernstein, Cynthia Selin)....Pages 255-282 Front Matter ....Pages 283-283 Technology Assessment of Socio-Technical Futures—A Discussion Paper (Andreas Lösch, Knud Böhle, Christopher Coenen, Paulina Dobroc, Reinhard Heil, Armin Grunwald et al.)....Pages 285-308 The exploration of ways to conceptualize the shaping of the present by socio-technical futures is the aim of this volume. Therefore it brings together contributions from Science and Technology Studies and Technology Assessment, which focus all on the question how socio-technical images of the future shape present processes of innovation and transformation starting from empirical case studies and generalizing specific findings or by tackling conceptual questions from the outset. A white paper of 23 authors, which aims to sensitize researchers and practitioners completes the volume. Contents Analytical Concepts, Different Kinds and Patterns of Socio-Technical Futures.- Socio-Technical Futures in Different Processes of Change.- Intervening into the Present Through Prospective Reasoning.- White Paper. Target Groups Researchers and students from social sciences and humanities The Editors Andreas Lösch is senior research scientist at the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) and private lecturer for sociology at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). Armin Grunwald is director of the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), full professor of philosophy and ethics of technology at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and heads the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag (TAB). Martin Meister is a research associate at the Department of Sociology, Chair on Sociology of Technology and Innovation at Technical University of Berlin. Ingo Schulz-Schaeffer is full professor of sociology and head of the sociology of technology and innovation group at the Department of Sociology at Technical University of Berlin