Run-off prediction in ungauged basins : synthesis across processes, places and scales

Predicting water runoff in ungauged water catchment areas is vital to practical applications such as the design of drainage infrastructure and flooding defences, runoff forecasting, and for catchment management tasks such as water allocation and climate impact analysis. This full colour book offers an impressive synthesis of decades of international research, forming a holistic approach to catchment hydrology and providing a one-stop resource for hydrologists in both developed and developing countries. Topics include data for runoff regionalisation, the prediction of runoff hydrographs, flow duration curves, flow paths and residence times, annual and seasonal runoff, and floods. Illustrated with many case studies and including a final chapter on recommendations for researchers and practitioners, this book is written by expert authors involved in the prestigious IAHS PUB initiative. It is a key resource for academic researchers and professionals in the fields of hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, geography, soil science, and environmental and civil engineering. Contents......Page 7 Contributors......Page 11 Prediction in ungauged basins: context, challenges, opportunities......Page 17 Preface......Page 21 Abstract......Page 24 1.1 Why we need runoff predictions......Page 27 1.2 Runoff predictions in ungauged basins are difficult......Page 29 1.3 Fragmentation in hydrology......Page 30 1.4 The Prediction in Ungauged Basins initiative: a response to the challenge of fragmentation......Page 31 1.5 What this book aims to achieve: synthesis across processes, places and scales......Page 32 1.5.1 Synthesis across processes......Page 33 1.5.3 Synthesis across scales......Page 34 1.6 How to read the book and what to get out of it......Page 35 2.1.1 Co-evolution of catchment characteristics......Page 37 2.1.2 Signatures: a manifestation of co-evolution......Page 39 2.2.1 Generalisation through comparative hydrology......Page 41 2.2.2 Hydrological similarity......Page 44 Catchment similarity......Page 45 2.2.3 Catchment grouping: exploiting the similarity concept for PUB......Page 46 Transferring information from gauged to ungauged locations......Page 47 2.3.1 Statistical methods of predictions in ungauged basins......Page 48 2.4.1 Comparative assessment as a means of synthesis......Page 49 2.4.2 Performance measures......Page 51 2.5 Summary of key points......Page 52 3.1 Why do we need data?......Page 55 3.2 A hierarchy of data acquisition......Page 56 3.2.2 Assessment based on national hydrological network and national surveys......Page 57 3.2.3 Assessment based on local field visits including reading the landscape......Page 58 3.3.1 What runoff data are needed for PUB?......Page 60 3.3.2 What runoff data are there?......Page 61 3.4.2 Precipitation......Page 62 3.4.4 Potential evaporation......Page 65 3.4.6 Remote sensing of soil moisture and basin storage......Page 66 3.5.2 Land cover and land use......Page 67 3.5.3 Soils and geology......Page 68 3.6 Data on anthropogenic effects......Page 69 3.7.1 Understanding process controls on runoff (Tenderfoot Creek, Montana, USA)......Page 70 3.7.2 Runoff predictions using rainfall-runoff models (Chicken Creek, Germany)......Page 73 3.7.3 Forensic analysis of magnitude and causes of a flood (Selska Sora, Slovenia)......Page 75 3.8 Summary of key points......Page 77 4.1 Predictions: right for the right reasons......Page 79 4.2 Process controls on flow paths and storage......Page 81 Learning from temporal patterns of runoff in one catchment......Page 83 Learning from spatial patterns of runoff in many catchments......Page 84 Learning from temporal patterns of tracers in one catchment......Page 85 Learning from spatial patterns of tracers in many catchments......Page 88 4.4.2 Index methods......Page 90 4.4.3 Methods based on proxy data......Page 91 4.5 Informing predictions of runoff in ungauged basins......Page 92 4.5.2 Statistical methods......Page 93 4.5.4 Regional interpretation and similarity......Page 94 4.6 Summary of key points......Page 95 5.1 How much water do we have?......Page 96 5.2 Annual runoff: processes and similarity......Page 97 Climate forcing......Page 98 Catchment (physical) processes......Page 100 Catchment (biological) processes......Page 102 Effects of global change......Page 103 5.2.2 Similarity measures......Page 104 5.2.3 Catchment grouping......Page 105 Inter-annual variability......Page 109 Budyko-type models......Page 110 Probability distribution of annual runoff......Page 112 Correlation with longer runoff record......Page 114 5.4.1 Derived distribution methods......Page 115 Annual runoff and inter-annual variability......Page 116 Tree ring chronology and paleoclimatology......Page 117 5.5.1 Level 1 assessment......Page 118 Which method performs best?......Page 120 How does data availability impact performance?......Page 121 5.5.2 Level 2 assessment......Page 122 Global scale results vs. local scale results......Page 123 Main findings of Level 2 assessment......Page 125 5.6 Summary of key points......Page 126 6.1 When do we have water?......Page 128 6.2.1 Processes......Page 130 Climate forcing......Page 131 Catchment processes: storage in snow, ice and glaciers......Page 132 Catchment processes: storage in soil and groundwater......Page 133 Land surface processes and vegetation phenology......Page 134 Inter-annual variability in the flow regime......Page 135 Change (human impacts)......Page 136 6.2.2 Similarity measures......Page 137 Climate similarity indices......Page 138 Visualisation of multidimensional indices......Page 139 Grouping based on runoff: statistical approaches......Page 140 Grouping based on catchment characteristics and climate: contiguous region......Page 141 Grouping based on catchment characteristics and climate: non-contiguous regions......Page 143 6.3.2 Index methods......Page 144 6.3.3 Geostatistical and proximity methods......Page 145 6.3.4 Runoff estimation from short records......Page 147 6.4.1 Derived distribution methods......Page 149 6.4.2 Continuous models......Page 150 6.5 Comparative assessment......Page 152 How good are the predictions in different climates?......Page 153 How does data availability impact performance?......Page 154 To what extent does runoff prediction performance depend on climate and catchment characteristics?......Page 155 Which method performs best?......Page 159 6.6 Summary of key points......Page 160 7.1 For how long do we have water?......Page 161 7.2 Flow duration curves: processes and similarity......Page 163 Climate forcing......Page 164 Environmental change......Page 166 Runoff similarity......Page 167 Climate similarity......Page 170 7.2.3 Catchment grouping......Page 171 7.3 Statistical methods of predicting flow duration curves in ungauged basins......Page 173 Parametric methods......Page 174 Rescaled flow duration curve......Page 175 7.3.3 Geostatistical methods......Page 177 7.3.4 Estimation from short records......Page 178 7.4.1 Derived distribution methods......Page 179 7.4.2 Continuous models......Page 180 How good are the predictions in different climates?......Page 182 How does data availability impact performance?......Page 183 To what extent does runoff prediction performance depend on climate and catchment characteristics?......Page 184 Main findings of Level 2 assessment......Page 187 7.6 Summary of key points......Page 188 8.1 How dry will it be?......Page 189 Climate......Page 190 Catchment processes......Page 192 Runoff similarity......Page 193 Catchment similarity......Page 195 Seasonality approach......Page 196 8.3.1 Regression methods......Page 198 8.3.2 Index low flow methods......Page 201 8.3.3 Geostatistical methods......Page 202 8.3.4 Estimation from short records......Page 204 8.4.1 Derived distribution methods......Page 205 8.4.3 Proxy data on low flow processes......Page 206 8.5 Comparative assessment......Page 207 Which method performs best?......Page 208 To what extent does runoff prediction performance depend on climate and catchment characteristics?......Page 210 Main findings of Level 2 assessment......Page 213 8.6 Summary of key points......Page 214 9.1 How high will the flood be?......Page 215 9.2 Floods: processes and similarity......Page 216 Climate forcing......Page 217 Runoff generation......Page 218 Change: human impacts......Page 220 Runoff similarity......Page 222 Catchment similarity......Page 223 Event similarity......Page 224 Fixed groups......Page 226 Different group for each target catchment......Page 227 Generalised least squares......Page 229 Hydrological interpretation......Page 230 Growth curves......Page 231 Relaxing the assumptions......Page 233 Geostatistics combined with catchment characteristics......Page 234 9.3.4 Estimation from short records......Page 235 9.4 Process-based methods of predicting floods in ungauged basins......Page 237 9.4.1 Derived distribution methods......Page 238 Estimating model parameters in ungauged basins......Page 239 Estimating the entire population of flood events......Page 240 9.4.2 Continuous models......Page 241 Historical flood information......Page 243 Recent post-event information......Page 244 9.5 Comparative assessment......Page 245 How good are the predictions in different climates?......Page 246 Main findings of Level 1 assessment......Page 247 Which method performs best?......Page 248 9.6 Summary of key points......Page 251 10.1 What are the dynamics of runoff?......Page 253 10.2 Runoff dynamics: processes and similarity......Page 254 10.2.1 Processes......Page 255 Runoff similarity......Page 259 Climate similarity......Page 260 Catchment similarity......Page 261 Grouping based on runoff similarity......Page 262 Grouping based on climate and catchment characteristics......Page 263 10.3.2 Index methods......Page 264 10.3.3 Geostatistical methods......Page 265 10.4 Process-based methods of predicting runoff hydrographs in ungauged basins......Page 266 10.4.1 Structure of rainfall-runoff models for ungauged basins......Page 267 Processes to include......Page 268 Conceptual models......Page 270 Similarity between landscape units......Page 271 10.4.2 Parameters of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: overview......Page 272 Soil hydraulic characteristics......Page 273 Surface roughness and hydraulic geometry......Page 274 10.4.4 Transfer of calibrated model parameters from gauged catchments......Page 277 Spatial proximity, similarity and model averaging......Page 278 Regression between calibrated model parameters and catchment characteristics......Page 279 Regional calibration and downscaling of parameters......Page 280 Downscaling method......Page 281 10.4.5 Constraining model parameters by dynamic proxy data and runoff......Page 282 Regionalised runoff......Page 283 Short runoff records in the catchment of interest......Page 285 Snow cover patterns......Page 286 Water level and inundation patterns......Page 287 10.5 Comparative assessment......Page 288 Which method performs best?......Page 289 How does data availability impact performance?......Page 290 How does model complexity impact performance?......Page 291 To what extent does runoff prediction performance depend on climate and catchment characteristics?......Page 292 10.6 Summary of key points......Page 294 Summary of the case studies......Page 296 11.21 Summary of key points......Page 298 Description of the study area......Page 299 Water budget model......Page 300 Data availability......Page 301 Results......Page 302 Description of the study area......Page 303 Results......Page 305 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 306 Description of the study area......Page 307 Mean runoff assessment and mapping of the rivers in the southern part of East Siberia......Page 308 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 309 Description of the study area......Page 311 Virtual basin......Page 312 Virtual first-order basin regional simulation......Page 313 Discussion......Page 314 Description of the study area......Page 315 Results......Page 316 Discussion......Page 318 Method......Page 319 Discussion......Page 321 Method......Page 323 Results......Page 325 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 326 Description of the study area......Page 327 Method......Page 328 Discussion......Page 329 Description of the study area......Page 331 Regionalisation method......Page 332 Discussion......Page 333 Description of the study area......Page 335 Results......Page 337 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 339 Methods......Page 340 Results......Page 341 Discussion......Page 342 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 343 Description of the study area......Page 345 Hydrological signatures of the studied catchments......Page 346 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 347 Description of the study area......Page 349 Framework to combine different sources of information into a calibrated model......Page 350 Validation......Page 351 Discussion......Page 352 Method......Page 354 Results......Page 355 Validation......Page 356 Discussion......Page 357 Description of the study area......Page 358 Results......Page 360 Discussion......Page 362 Description of the study area......Page 363 Method......Page 365 Prediction of flow statistics from basin descriptors......Page 366 Identification of hydrologically homogeneous groups......Page 367 Regionalisation of conceptual models......Page 368 Discussion......Page 370 Study area and data......Page 371 Model averaging......Page 372 Multi-model averaging......Page 373 Acknowledgements......Page 374 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 375 Parameter estimation......Page 376 Results......Page 377 Discussion......Page 378 The issue from societal and hydrological perspectives......Page 379 Description of study area......Page 380 Method......Page 381 Overall water balance (see Chapter 5)......Page 382 Results......Page 383 Discussion......Page 385 12.1 Learning from synthesis......Page 387 Signatures are connected......Page 389 How well can we predict the signatures, individually?......Page 390 How well can we predict signatures relative to each other?......Page 392 Assessment of performance as a function of climate......Page 393 Performance as a function of catchment size......Page 395 Spacing of data and size of region with respect to natural variability......Page 396 Relative performance of different methods......Page 397 Dependence on climate......Page 399 12.3.1 Evidence for co-evolution......Page 400 Newtonian vs. Darwinian (co-evolutionary) similarity measures/predictors from the book......Page 401 12.3.2 Comparative hydrology and the Newtonian-Darwinian synthesis......Page 402 Studies from the literature to illustrate synthesis of Newtonian and Darwinian approaches......Page 404 Uncertainty quantification based on comparative hydrology......Page 405 Synthesis of the two uncertainty paradigms......Page 406 From data to information, knowledge and understanding......Page 407 12.4.2 Role of the community......Page 408 13.1.3 Addressing uncertainty from a process perspective......Page 410 13.3.1 Capacity building......Page 411 13.4 Best practice recommendations for predicting runoff in ungauged basins......Page 412 Appendix Summary of studies used in the comparative assessments......Page 414 References......Page 441 Index......Page 489 "Predicting water runoff in ungauged water catchment areas is vital to practical applications such as the design of drainage infrastructure and flooding defences, runoff forecasting, and for catchment management tasks such as water allocation and climate impact analysis. This important new book synthesises decades of international research, forming a holistic approach to catchment hydrology and providing a one-stop resource for hydrologists in both developed and developing countries. Topics include data for runoff regionalisation, the prediction of runoff hydrographs, flow duration curves, flow paths and residence times, annual and seasonal runoff, and floods. Illustrated with many case studies and including a final chapter on recommendations for researchers and practitioners, this book is written by expert authors involved in the prestigious IAHS PUB initiative. It is a key resource for academic researchers and professionals in the fields of hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, geography, soil science, and environmental and civil engineering"-- Provided by publisher