Rumbles of Thunder : Power Shifts and the Danger of Sino-American War

It is widely believed that shifts in the balance of power between an established hegemon and a rising upstart can lead to war. To what extent does this proposition hold true for Sino-American relations today? Steve Chan examines a range of international relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated risk of confrontation between the two powers. Probing the recent deterioration in Sino-American relations, he considers whether several factors that can raise or lower international tension apply to the current situation. Chan demonstrates that power shifts do not preordain violent outcomes—nor does their absence ensure peace. Criticizing overly mechanistic frameworks, he emphasizes that domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars happen. Chan demonstrates that claims of a "rising China" catching up to and even poised to overtake the United States are alarmist: American structural advantages will endure for some time to come. Contrary to prevailing narratives, China does not act like a revisionist power seeking to overturn the system, while the United States, far from defending the international order, has frequently undermined it. However, Chan cautions, Taiwan remains a flashpoint for a possible Sino-American conflict. Bringing together expertise in IR theory and keen political acumen, Rumbles of Thunder challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war between the United States and China. "How do power transfers take place in international politics? Sino-American relations have deteriorated seriously in recent years, but are they on the brink of war? In this work, international relations scholar Steve Chan reconsiders IR realism, and specifically power-transition theory and its more recent rendition as Thucydides' Trap, in the context of Sino-American relations. Thucydides' Trap warns that whenever a rising power catches up to an established one, the probability of war occurring between them rises. Chan argues that this warning is based on questionable logic and evidence even though a conflict may occur for reasons other than or in addition to power transition. Popular and even scholarly narratives of an ongoing or impending power transition between China and the United States can be seriously misleading because they overlook important considerations, like network-based power and the persistence of peace. Such narratives can even be dangerous to the extent that they abet a variety of political and psychological responses that cause misjudgment, thereby bringing about a self-fulfilling prophecy"-- Provided by publisher Introduction -- Power shift explains better worsening Sino-American relations -- Conceptual and measurement problems in studying power -- Persistence of Washington's structural power in U.S. global domination -- Domestic sources of foreign policy -- Taiwan as a possible catalyst for Sino-American conflict -- Conclusion