Rogue Waves: Future-Proof Your Business to Survive and Profit from Radical Change

"A renowned business futurist shows leaders how their companies can adapt, survive, and thrive in times of radical disruption caused by the convergence of economic, technological, and social change. Today's businesses are sailing in stormy waters-financial crises, pandemics, social chaos, trade wars, AI-with the waves getting bigger every day. In the ocean, a collision of waves can create 85-foot walls of water called rogue waves, which can sink a ship in seconds. These rogue waves aren't predictable, but they are forecastable-much like the radical changes that businesses face in our current climate. If you can get ahead of them, you can profit from them. This must-read survival guide from innovation expert and business futurist Jonathan Brill shows leaders how their organizations can navigate these waves, ride out the fiercest of storms, and come out stronger on the other side. Drawing from years of experience as a Fortune 500 executive, advisor, and entrepreneur, Brill gives business leaders a practical action plan to: Capitalize on the 10 economic, technological, and social trends, or waves, most likely to collide and reshape the business world Implement techniques that all managers at any level can use to turn sudden risks into outsized opportunities Create a culture of entrepreneurship and experimentation Learn and scale the leadership skills and processes that will help transform their companies into resilient and adaptable organizations Timely, important, and essential, Rogue Waves equips business leaders with the predictive tools they need to take advantage of randomness, turn chaos into profit, and control their future, so that their companies thrive-while their competitors are washed away"-- Provided by publisher Cover Title Page Copright Page Dedication Contents Introduction Why Business School Strategy Keeps Failing Why Business Is Broken Resilience Is Your New Strategy for Growth A Practitioner as Your Guide How This Book Is Organized PART I AWARENESS 1 Transforming to Survive in Our Increasingly Volatile World CEOs Feel Like They’re Out at Sea The Mathematics of Monster Waves Constructive Interference in Human Society The Four FOES of Growth The Future Is Neither Deterministic nor Chaotic 2 10 Undercurrents Will Cause the Next Rogue Wave The Local Impact of Macrotrends Economic Undercurrents Technological Undercurrents Social Undercurrents If the Future’s So Obvious, Why Do Companies Keep Getting Hit by Rogue Waves? Summary: Assess Your Threats and Opportunities Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow PART II Behavior Change The ROGUE Method 3 R: Reality Test Investigation: The Art of Seeing the Invisible The REAL Framework Summary: Test Your Present Reality Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow 4 O: Observe Your System The Thing About the Future Making Sense of Your System Getting Comfortable with Uncertainty Knowing the Pattern Without Knowing All the Data Searching for Higher-Order Effects Causal Loop Diagrams How You Can Model Systems Too Summary: Find Your Range of Futures Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow 5 G: Generate Your Futures The Tree of Possibility Envision the Extremes How to Win Through Practical Wargaming Chart Your Possible Futures Summary: Assess the Impact of Change Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow 6 U: Uncouple Your Opportunities from Your Threats Modify Your World Using Models Identify Trigger Points Nudge Your System Prioritize Your Opportunities and Threats Shift Certainty and Impact Summary: Bend the Future to Your Benefit Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow 7 E: Experiment More Innovation Doesn’t Always Make You More Profitable Choosing the Right Experiments Designing Portfolios Balancing Your Portfolio Design Your Portfolio for Resilience as Well as Performance Maintaining Your Backlog Innovate at the Right Level Define Your Experiments Evaluate Your Results Effectively Summary: Experiment to Future-Proof Your Business Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow PART III CULTURE CHANGE 8 Leading in Stormy Seas Sowing the Seeds of an Experimental Mindset How to Future-Proof Your Culture Eliminating Unnecessary Risk Playing Basketball on a Football Field Speaking in Koans Summary: Create a Culture of Experimentation Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow Conclusion: Driving Resilient Growth in Your Organization Phase I: Awareness Phase II: Behavior Change Phase III: Culture Change Phase IV: Resilient Growth Epilogue How to See Clearly Winning with a Resilient Growth Strategy Acknowledgments Notes Index "An actionable framework for driving change."—Adam Grant Will the next rogue wave sink your ship—or will you choose to profit from it? At this moment, rogue waves are forming under your business. Emerging technologies, changing demographics, the data economy, automation, and other trends—the undercurrents of radical, systemic change—are crashing into each other. When they converge, they'll produce sea changes that sink companies and wash away entire industries overnight. If your competitor can't ride out the next wave and you can, you win. In Rogue Waves , Jonathan Brill—a renowned expert on resilient growth and decision making under uncertainty—shows you how to prepare your business to survive and thrive through the most radical upheavals. Drawing on years of experience as a Fortune 500 innovation executive, advisor, and entrepreneur, Brill delivers a practical action plan to: Identify and capitalize on the 10 economic, technological, and social trends that will collide to reshape your business Turn sudden threats into outsized opportunities Create a culture of entrepreneurship and experimentation Build and scale leadership skills and processes to supercharge your company's agility and adaptability This must-read survival guide provides the predictive tools you need to take advantage of randomness, turn chaos into profit, and set your company on the course for long-term success.Resilience is your new strategy for growth. An actionable framework for driving change. Adam Grant Will the next rogue wave sink your shipor will you choose to profit from it? At this moment, rogue waves are forming under your business. Emerging technologies, changing demographics, the data economy, automation, and other trendsthe undercurrents of radical, systemic changeare crashing into each other. When they converge, theyll produce sea changes that sink companies and wash away entire industries overnight. If your competitor cant ride out the next wave and you can, you win. In Rogue Waves , Jonathan Brilla renowned expert on resilient growth and decision making under uncertaintyshows you how to prepare your business to survive and thrive through the most radical upheavals. Drawing on years of experience as a Fortune 500 innovation executive, advisor, and entrepreneur, Brill delivers a practical action plan This must-read survival guide provides the predictive tools you need to take advantage of randomness, turn chaos into profit, and set your company on the course for long-term success. Resilience is your new strategy for growth.