Risk Theory: Rational Decision in the Face of Chance, Uncertainty, and Risk (SpringerBriefs in Philosophy)

Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors―including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck―are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer. Preface Introduction Glossary of Symbols Contents Chapter 1: Choice and Risk Chapter 2: Chance and Likelihood Chapter 3: Outcome-Yield Evaluation and Risk Chapter 4: Abnormal Situations and Eccentric Measurements 4.1 Negligible Probabilities and Dismissible Possibilities 4.2 Unacceptable Risks and Utter Catastrophes 4.3 Matters of Policy Chapter 5: Situation Evaluation and Expectation Chapter 6: Uncertainty Chapter 7: Risk Assessment Chapter 8: Comparing Chancy Situations via Risk and Promise Chapter 9: Managing Risk and Uncertainty Chapter 10: The Social Aspect of Risk 10.1 Technological Risk 10.2 Risk and the Law 10.3 The “Nanny State” 10.4 Conclusion Appendixes Appendix 1 Pearl Harbor in the Light of Rational Decision A. The Japanese Position B. The U.S. Perspective C. The German Perspective Appendix 2 Lessons of the Prisoner’s Dilemma Bibliography Index