Risk, science and sustainability : science for reduction of risk and sustainable development of society : proceeedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Budapest, Hungary, from 15 to 16 June 2002

1 AUK ISMAIL-ZADEH ,2, TOM BEER3 1 International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Warshavskoye shosse 79-2, Moscow 113556, Russia; e-mail: aismail@mitp.ru 2 Geophysikalisches Institut, Universittit Karlsruhe, Hertzstr. 16, Karlsruhe 76187, Germany; e-mail: Alik.Ismail-Zadeh@gpi.uni-karlsruhe.de 3 CSIRO Environmental Risk Network, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic. 3195 Australia; e-mail: Tom.Beer@csiro.au The world faces major threats to the sustainability of our planet. These threats are accompanied by the immediate dangers of natural and man-made disasters. Our vulnerability to them is greatly magnified with each passing year undermining our ability to maintain a sustainable and productive world into the 21st Century and beyond. Both history and common sense teach us that science has a tremendous potential to find ways to cope with these threats. 1 The EUROSCIENCE working group "Science and Urgent Problems of Society" 2 and the IUGG Commission on Geophysical Risk and Sustainability were initiators of the EUROSCIENCE - IUGG Advanced Research Workshop "Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development of Society" sponsored by the NATO Science Program. The Workshop was held on 15-16 June 2002 in Budapest, Hungary. More than 40 participants from 17 countries took part in the Workshop. Talks and discussions addressed mainly the question of how science can help in reduction of risk and sustainable development of society. Front Matter....Pages i-xvi The Globalisation of Risk in the XXI st Century....Pages 1-7 Risk and Sustainability in Water Resources Management....Pages 9-14 Aids to Decision-Making in Risk Management....Pages 15-19 Science and Risk: Scientific Authority at Risk....Pages 21-27 Basic Science for Prediction and Reduction of Geological Disasters....Pages 29-38 Environmental Risk and Sustainability....Pages 39-61 Science for Risk Reduction and Sustainable Development: The Role of Law....Pages 63-76 Sustainable Development and Risk Evaluation: Challenges and Possible New Methodologies....Pages 77-90 On Predictability of Homicide Surges in Megacities....Pages 91-110 Earthquakes and Megacities....Pages 111-125 Earth Sciences Contribution to the Sustainable Development of Ground Transportation Systems: Relevant Case Studies in Central Europe....Pages 127-148 Modelling of Stress and Seismicity in the South-Eastern Carpathians....Pages 149-162 Earthquake Loss Estimation for India Based on Macroeconomic Indicators....Pages 163-180 Monitors and Methods for Investigation of Submarine Landslides, Seawater Intrusion and Contaminated Groundwater Discharge as Coastal Hazards....Pages 181-197 Risk of Collective Youth Violence in French Suburbs....Pages 199-221 Lessons from Macrophagic Myofasciitis: Towards Definition of a Vaccine Adjuvant-Related Syndrome....Pages 223-224 Flood Risk Management in the Upper Tisza Basin in Hungary....Pages 225-226 Volcanoes and Cities....Pages 227-227 Geo-Risk Management Practices in the Asia Pacific Region....Pages 229-229 Values, Interests and Symbolic Politics in a Nuclear Waste Disposal Debate....Pages 231-231 Back Matter....Pages 233-240 1 AUK ISMAIL-ZADEH,2, TOM BEER3 1 International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Warshavskoye shosse 79-2, Moscow 113556, Russia; e-mail: aismail@mitp.ru 2 Geophysikalisches Institut, Universittit Karlsruhe, Hertzstr. 16, Karlsruhe 76187, Germany; e-mail: Alik. Ismail-Zadeh@gpi.uni-karlsruhe.de 3 CSIRO Environmental Risk Network, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic. 3195 Australia; e-mail: Tom. Beer@csiro.au The world faces major threats to the sustainability of our planet. These threats are accompanied by the immediate dangers of natural and man-made disasters. Our vulnerability to them is greatly magnified with each passing year undermining our ability to maintain a sustainable and productive world into the 21st Century and beyond. Both history and common sense teach us that science has a tremendous potential to find ways to cope with these threats. 1 The EUROSCIENCE working group "Science and Urgent Problems of Society" 2 and the IUGG Commission on Geophysical Risk and Sustainability were initiators of the EUROSCIENCE - IUGG Advanced Research Workshop "Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development of Society" sponsored by the NATO Science Program. The Workshop was held on 15-16 June 2002 in Budapest, Hungary. More than 40 participants from 17 countries took part in the Workshop. Talks and discussions addressed mainly the question of how science can help in reduction of risk and sustainable development of society

This volume contains peer-reviewed papers and case studies derived from invited papers. The contributions address two key problems: (i) natural, technological and environmental risks, risk prevention and sustainable development; and (ii) science, risk and society. The papers provide an invaluable insight into, and archival record of the relationship between risk, science, and society in a world that has become more turbulent since the tragic events of 11 September 2001. The papers from scientists, policy makers, and practitioners cover the topics of risk, sustainability, science, and society and are of value for natural and social scientists, teachers, students, economists, and politicians. The book can also be read with profit by authorities responsible for public safety, risk management, and risk mitigation plans, and insurance companies.