Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems (International Hydrology Series) [ISBN : 9780521800365] [Copyright Year : 2002] [Hardcover]

In Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty and Robustness of Water Resources Systems, thirty-five leading scientists provide state-of-the-art reviews of topical areas of research on water resources systems, including aspects of extreme hydrological events: floods and droughts, water quantity and quality, dams, reservoirs and hydraulic structures, evaluating sustainability and climate change impacts. As well as discussing essential challenges and research directions, the book will assist in applying theoretical methods to the solution of practical problems in water resources. Half-title......Page 3 Series-title......Page 5 Title......Page 7 Copyright......Page 8 Dedication......Page 9 Contents......Page 11 Contributors......Page 15 1 Introduction......Page 19 2.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 22 2.2.1 Defining a region......Page 23 2.2.4 A need for prioritization of risks at the regional level......Page 24 2.3 ON SOME ORGANIZATIONAL ASPECTS......Page 25 2.5 THE USE OF DSS FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES......Page 26 2.5.1 Decision process and the role of models and tools in IRRASM......Page 27 Comment......Page 28 2.5.2 Decision-aiding techniques in use for safety management......Page 29 2.5.4 Decision Support Systems and the IRRASM process......Page 30 2.6 THE USE OF GIS TECHNOLOGY FOR IRRASM......Page 31 2.7 THE KOVERS APPROACH......Page 33 2.7.1 KOVERS monographs of dangerous substances......Page 35 2.7.2 KOVERS chemical database......Page 36 REFERENCES......Page 39 3.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 40 3.2 FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES.........Page 41 3.3 CLIMATE-CHANGE-IMPACT SCENARIOS: FROM BLUFFING TO METABLUFFING......Page 42 3.4 IN PRAISE OF THEORY AND ROBUST RESULTS......Page 43 3.5 A REALITY CHECK......Page 44 3.6 CONCLUSIONS, OR A TALE ABOUT UNKUNKS, KUNKS, AND SKUNKS......Page 46 REFERENCES......Page 47 4.2.2 Rainfall measurement uncertainty......Page 48 Effect of network density......Page 49 Effect of rainfall intensity......Page 50 4.2.4 Flood forecast uncertainty......Page 51 4.3.1 Introduction......Page 54 4.3.2 The RFFS Information Control Algorithm......Page 55 4.4 RISK AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING......Page 56 REFERENCES......Page 58 5.1.2 Potential benefits of probabilistic forecasts......Page 59 5.2.1 Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast......Page 60 5.3.2 Local climatic guidance......Page 61 5.4.3 River climatic guidance......Page 62 REFERENCES......Page 63 6.2.1 First step of a risk model......Page 65 6.3 “INONDABILITÉ” METHOD......Page 66 6.3.1 Vulnerability mapping......Page 67 6.3.2 Hazard mapping......Page 68 6.3.3 Synthetic “inondabilité” maps......Page 69 6.4.2 What should be the quantitative base of the negotiation?......Page 70 REFERENCES......Page 71 7.1 VARIABILITY IN AUSTRALIA’S CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY......Page 72 7.3 URBAN SYSTEMS......Page 73 Stochastic analysis......Page 74 Economics and social equity of restrictions policies......Page 75 7.4.1 Overview......Page 76 7.4.3 Allocation under conditions of uncertainty......Page 77 7.5 INFRASTRUCTURE ROBUSTNESS......Page 78 REFERENCES......Page 79 8.3 MEASURING THE “INVISIBLES” OF SOCIETY......Page 80 8.4 A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS OF THE DROUGHT-RELATED SOCIAL MESSAGES OF NEWSPAPER ARTICLES......Page 82 8.5 ANALYSIS OF THE OBSERVED WATER SAVING PHENOMENON: ANOTHER EXAMINATION OF THE WORKING HYPOTHESIS......Page 83 8.6 MODELING THE SPRD-WSP TRANSFORMATION MECHANISM: AN ANALOGY OF THE WATER SAVING ACTION USING THE “TANK” MODEL......Page 84 REFERENCES......Page 87 9.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 88 9.3 DETERMINATION OF A CAPTURE ZONE BY MONTE CARLO SIMULATION......Page 89 9.4 RESULTS......Page 90 REFERENCES......Page 93 10.2.1 Selected variables......Page 94 10.2.2 The mathematical model......Page 95 10.2.4 Estimation of model parameters; the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm......Page 96 10.4 RESULTS......Page 97 10.5.2 Limits and perspectives......Page 99 10.6 CONCLUSIONS......Page 101 REFERENCES......Page 102 11.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 104 11.2 STUDY SITE CHARACTERISTICS......Page 105 11.3 MODEL DEVELOPMENT......Page 106 Temporal precipitation patterns......Page 107 Interception......Page 108 Infiltration......Page 109 Temporal analysis of precipitation events......Page 110 Spatial analysis of precipitation events......Page 111 11.4.2 Results of water yield modeling......Page 113 11.5 EVALUATING RISK AND RELIABILITY IN WATER YIELD......Page 114 11.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 115 REFERENCES......Page 116 APPENDIX: NOTATION OF SYMBOLS......Page 117 12.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 119 12.3 DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL STREAMFLOW MODEL......Page 120 Climate database......Page 121 12.3.2 Regional hydroclimatological regression models of annual streamflow......Page 123 Model validation......Page 124 12.5.1 Validation of our overall methodology......Page 125 12.5.2 The general sensitivity of water supply yield to changes in climate......Page 126 12.6 CONCLUSIONS......Page 127 REFERENCES......Page 128 13.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 129 13.2 INVESTIGATION OF HISTORICAL SERIES......Page 130 13.3 NONSTATIONARY SCENARIOS......Page 131 13.3.2 Modified time-series models......Page 132 Stochastic downscaling......Page 133 13.4.2 Changes in runoff......Page 134 13.5 AN EXAMPLE OF ECOLOGICAL RISK ANALYSIS......Page 136 13.6 CONCLUSIONS......Page 138 REFERENCES......Page 139 14.1.1 Displaced ideals......Page 140 14.2.1 Fuzzy distance metrics......Page 141 14.2.2 Selecting acceptable alternatives......Page 143 14.2.4 Fuzzy acceptability measure......Page 144 14.3.1 Tisza River example......Page 145 14.3.2 Yugoslavia (system S2) example......Page 146 14.4 CONCLUSIONS......Page 148 REFERENCES......Page 149 15.2 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES......Page 151 15.4 METHODS FOR UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS......Page 152 15.4.2 Rosenblueth’s and similar Point Estimate (PE) methods......Page 153 15.4.3 Integral transformation techniques......Page 154 15.4.4 Monte Carlo simulation......Page 155 15.5 REMARKS ON UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES......Page 156 15.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS......Page 157 REFERENCES......Page 159 16.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 161 16.3 A PROBABILISTIC WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT MODEL......Page 162 16.3.4 Vulnerability......Page 163 16.4 THE STOCHASTIC BRANCH AND BOUND METHOD......Page 164 16.4.3 Vulnerability bounds......Page 165 16.5 APPLICATION OF THE STOCHASTIC BRANCH AND BOUND METHOD FOR MANAGING BOD DISCHARGES IN THE WILLAMETTE RIVER......Page 166 Acknowledgments......Page 168 APPENDIX: NOTATION......Page 169 17.2 RISK AND UNCERTAINTY......Page 171 17.3 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INPUT AND CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 172 17.5 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS......Page 173 17.6 UNCERTAINTY OF RISK ANALYSIS......Page 175 REFERENCES......Page 178 18.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 180 18.1.1 Potential failure modes of the system......Page 181 18.1.2 Likelihood of failures......Page 182 18.1.6 Synthesize all of the above into a framework for management of the water resources system, and select the optimal.........Page 183 REFERENCES......Page 185 19.2 SUSTAINABILITY: SOME ISSUES AND CHALLENGES......Page 187 19.3 DEFINING SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS......Page 189 19.4.1 Efficiency, survivability, and sustainability......Page 190 19.4.2 Weighted criteria indices......Page 191 19.4.3 Weighted statistical indices......Page 192 19.5 FINAL REMARKS......Page 197 REFERENCES......Page 198 20.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 199 20.2 ECONOMY-BASED IRREVERSIBILITY CONSIDERATIONS......Page 200 20.3 PHYSICALLY-BASED REVERSIBILITY CONSIDERATIONS......Page 202 20.4.1 Complete cleaning of a polluted groundwater system......Page 204 20.4.2 Partial cleaning of a polluted groundwater system......Page 205 REFERENCES......Page 206 21.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 208 21.2.2 Developed countries......Page 210 21.2.3 Hydroelectric power......Page 211 21.3 RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION......Page 212 21.4 OUTLOOK OF RESERVOIRS IN THE FUTURE......Page 213 21.5.1 Integrated urban water management......Page 214 REFERENCES......Page 215 22.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 217 22.2 CASE STUDY SYSTEM......Page 218 22.3 GENETIC ALGORITHM MODEL......Page 219 22.4 PERFORMANCE EVALUATION......Page 221 22.5 ANALYSES AND RESULTS......Page 222 22.6 DISCUSSION......Page 224 REFERENCES......Page 225 23.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 227 23.2 THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS......Page 229 23.4.1 Examples of risk calculations......Page 230 23.4.2 An example of a risk calculation for risk of life......Page 231 23.4.3 Examples of risk calculation on the basis of exceedance probabilities......Page 232 23.4.4 Risk evaluation......Page 235 23.4.6 Uncertainty of risk estimates......Page 236 REFERENCES......Page 237 Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems is based on the Third George Kovacs Colloquium organized by the International Hydrological Programme (UNESCO) and the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. Thirty-five leading scientists with international reputations provide reviews of topical areas of research on water resource systems, including aspects of extreme hydrological events: floods and droughts; water quantity and quality dams; reservoirs and hydraulic structures; evaluating sustainability and climate change impacts. As well as discussing essential challenges and research directions, the book will assist in applying theoretical methods to the solution of practical problems in water resources. The authors are multi-disciplinary, stemming from such areas as: hydrology, geography, civil, environmental and agricultural engineering, forestry, systems sciences, operations research, mathematics, physics and geophysics, ecology and atmospheric sciences. This review volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers. "Thirty-five leading scientists with international reputations provide state-of-the-art reviews of topical areas of research on water resources systems, including aspects of extreme hydrological events, floods an droughts, water quantity and quality, dams, reservoirs and hydraulic structures, evaluation of sustainability and climate change impacts. In addition to discussing essential challenges and research directions, the book will assist in applying theoretical methods to the solution of practical problems in water resources. The authors represent several disciplines such as hydrology; geography; civil, environmental, and agricultural engineering; forestry; systems sciences; operations research; mathematics; physics and geophysics; ecology; and atmospheric sciences."--Page i 35 leading multi-disciplinary scientists with international reputations provide state-of-the-art reviews of topical areas of research on uncertainty and reliability related aspects of water resources systems. The volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers