Rise of the Robots : Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future

**A __New York Times__ Science Bestseller** What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? We might imagine—and hope—that today’s industrial revolution will unfold like the last: even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal with the new innovations of a new era. In __Rise of the Robots__, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that this is absolutely not the case. As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries—education and health care—that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself. In __Rise of the Robots__, Ford details what machine intelligence and robotics can accomplish, and implores employers, scholars, and policy makers alike to face the implications. The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education, aren’t going to work, and we must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecurity. __Rise of the Robots__ is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand what accelerating technology means for their own economic prospects—not to mention those of their children—as well as for society as a whole. In a world of Google Glass and big data, smart algorithms and Siri, we know that artificial intelligence is getting smarter every day. Though all these nifty devices and programs might make our lives easier, they're also well on their way to making good jobs obsolete. A computer winning Jeopardy might seem like a trivial, if impressive, feat, but the same technology is making paralegals redundant as it undertakes electronic discovery, and is soon to do the same for radiologists. And that, no doubt, will only be the beginning. In Silicon Valley the phrase disruptive technology is tossed around on a casual basis. No one doubts that technology has the power to devastate entire industries and upend various sectors of the job market. But Rise of the Robots asks a bigger question: Can accelerating technology disrupt our entire economic system to the point where a fundamental restructuring is required? Companies like Facebook and YouTube may only need a handful of employees to achieve enormous valuations, but what will be the fate of those of us not lucky or smart enough to have gotten into the great shift from human labor to computation? The more Pollyannaish, or just simply uninformed, might imagine that this industrial revolution will unfold like the last: even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal with the new devices of a new era. In Rise of the Robots, Martin Ford argues that is absolutely not the case. Increasingly, machines will be able to take care of themselves, and fewer jobs will be necessary. The effects of this transition could be shattering. Unless we begin to radically reassess the fundamentals of how our economy works, we could have both an enormous population of the unemployed--the truck drivers, warehouse workers, cooks, lawyers, doctors, teachers, programmers, and many, many more, whose labors have been rendered superfluous by automated and intelligent machines--and a general economy that, bereft of consumers, implodes under the weight of its own contradictions. We are at an inflection point--do we continue to listen to those who argue that nothing fundamental has changed, and take a bad bet on a miserable future, or do we begin to discuss what we must do to ensure all of us, and not just the few, benefit from the awesome power of artificial intelligence? The time to choose is now. Rise of the Robots is a both an exploration of this new technology and a call to arms to address its implications. Written by a successful Silicon Valley entrepreneur, this is a book that cannot be dismissed as the ranting of a Luddite or an outsider. Ford has seen the future, and he knows that for some of us, the rise of the robots will be very frightening indeed The New York Times-bestselling guide to how automation is changing the economy, undermining work, and reshaping our lives Winner of Best Business Book of the Year awards from the Financial Times and from Forbes'Lucid, comprehensive, and unafraid... ;an indispensable contribution to a long-running argument.'-- Los Angeles Times What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making'good jobs'obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working -- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries-education and health care-that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself. The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education, aren't going to work. We must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecurity. Rise of the Robots is essential reading to understand what accelerating technology means for our economic prospects-not to mention those of our children-as well as for society as a whole. In Silicon Valley The Phrase Disruptive Technology Is Tossed Around On A Casual Basis. No One Doubts That Technology Has The Power To Devastate Entire Industries And Upend Various Sectors Of The Job Market. But Rise Of The Robots Asks A Bigger Question: Can Accelerating Technology Disrupt Our Entire Economic System To The Point Where A Fundamental Restructuring Is Required? Companies Like Facebook And Youtube May Only Need A Handful Of Employees To Achieve Enormous Valuations, But What Will Be The Fate Of Those Of Us Not Lucky Or Smart Enough To Have Gotten Into The Great Shift From Human Labor To Computation?-- The Automation Wave -- Is This Time Different? -- Information Technology : An Unprecedented Force For Disruption -- White-collar Jobs At Risk -- Transforming Higher Education -- The Health Care Challenge -- Consumers, Limits To Growth ... And Crisis? -- Super-intelligence And The Singularity -- Toward A New Economic Paradigm. Martin Ford. Includes Bibliographical References (pages 287-315) And Index. Intelligent algorithms are already well on their way to making white collar jobs obsolete: travel agents, data-analysts, and paralegals are currently in the firing line. In the near future, doctors, taxi-drivers and ironically even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by 'robots'. Without a radical reassessment of our economic and political structures, we risk the very implosion of the capitalist economy itself ... In The Rise of the Robots, technology expert Martin Ford systematically outlines the achievements of artificial intelligence and uses a wealth of economic data to illustrate the terrifying societal implications. From health and education to finance and technology, his warning is stark - all jobs that are on some level routine are likely to eventually be automated, resulting in the death of traditional careers and a hollowed-out middle class. The robots are coming and we have to decide - now - whether the future will bring prosperity or catastrophe Examines the effects of accelerating technology on the economic system. "In Silicon Valley the phrase "disruptive technology" is tossed around on a casual basis. No one doubts that technology has the power to devastate entire industries and upend various sectors of the job market. But Rise of the Robots asks a bigger question: Can accelerating technology disrupt our entire economic system to the point where a fundamental restructuring is required? Companies like Facebook and YouTube may only need a handful of employees to achieve enormous valuations, but what will be the fate of those of us not lucky or smart enough to have gotten into the great shift from human labor to computation?"-- Contents 8 Introduction 10 Chapter 1: The Automation Wave 20 Chapter 2: Is This Time Different? 48 Chapter 3: Information Technology: An Unprecedented Force for Disruption 82 Chapter 4: White-Collar Jobs at Risk 102 Chapter 5: Transforming Higher Education 148 Chapter 6: The Health Care Challenge 164 Chapter 7: Technologies and Industries of the Future 194 Chapter 8: Consumers, Limits to Growth . . . and Crisis? 212 Chapter 9: Super-Intelligence and the Singularity 248 Chapter 10: Toward a New Economic Paradigm 268 Conclusion 300 Acknowledgments 304 Notes 306 Index 336