Renewable Energy Desalination; An Emerging Solution to Close the Water Gap in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA Development Report)

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region is one of the most water stressed regions in the world. Water scarcity has already become a challenge to development in many of the countries. Due to increasing population and Projected climate change impacts, MENA's annual water demand gap is projected to grow five-fold by 2050, from today's 42 Km3 to 200 km3 by 2050. Despite its extreme scarcity, water is managed poorly. Inefficiencies are common in the agriculture, municipal and industrial systems; and many utilities are financially unsustainable. As a result, countries overexploit their fossil aquifers—and use desalination by fossil fuel—to meet the water demand gap. Desalination already plays a critical role in MENA's water supply portfolio. However, desalination is costly, energy intensive and has environmental impacts. On current trends, the projection is that, by 2050, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the Region will consume for desalination most of the oil that they produce. Overexploitation of fossil aquifers is not sustainable. Neither is the use of fossil fuel for desalination to meet the growing water gap sustainable. This book outlines the challenges in terms of water (and also in terms of energy) that countries in the Region face and analyzes the scope of available options to address the growing water gap. The book estimates MENA's water gap today and into the future—until 2050; and presents a methodology to prioritize options to bridge the water gap, using the 'marginal cost of water' approach. The book also assesses the viability of renewable energy desalination as an important option to close the Region's water gap. The book compares the economic cost of desalination using fossil fuel and renewable energy sources, in particular the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). The book also provides recommendations as to how CSP based desalination could ensure sustainable water supply for the Region. Contents Foreword Acknowledgments Abbreviations Overview Tables O.1 MENA Annual Water Demand and Supply under Average Climate Change Scenario, 2000–50 Figures O.1 Sources of New Water Supplies by 2050 O.2 Distribution of Worldwide Desalination Capacity, 2007 O.2 Total Annualized Cost of Desalinated Seawater O.3 Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants Compared to Specific Cost of Peak-, Medium-, and Baseload Plants (Annualized Costs) O.3 Levelized Costs of Electricity of CSP and Other Technologies O.4 Total Annualized Cost of RE-Desalinated Seawater 1. Introduction Origin and Purpose of This Study Chapter Summaries Note References 2. MENA’s Water Gap Will Grow Fivefold by 2050 2.1 MENA Annual Water Demand and Supply under Average Climate Change Scenario, 2000–50 Water Availability and Demand Maps 2.1 Declining per Capita Water Availability: A Growing Threat in MENA MENA’s Current Water Balance: Already in the Red 2.1 Water Resources Availability and Use in MENA Countries Climate Change Threatens MENA’s Future Water Availability 2.2 Predicted Water Availability in the MENA Region, 2010–50 MENA’s Future Water Demand: Population and GDP Factor 2.2 Predicted Changes in Water Availability in the MENA Region, 2010–50 2.3 Relation between per Capita Domestic Water Withdrawals and GDP per Capita 2.3 Distribution of MENA Areas Equipped for Irrigation, 2000 Future Water Balance: The Gap Grows 2.2 MENA Irrigation Water Demand 2.3 MENA Water Demand Gap under Three Climate Scenarios, 2000–50 2.4 Current and Future Water Demand and Unmet Demand Gap under the Average Climate Change Projection Imperative for Demand and Supply Management 2.4 Value of Groundwater Depletion in Selected MENA Countries as a Share of GDP 2.5 High-Tech Agricultural Packages Increase Water Use Efficiency 2.6 Cost Range for Water Reuse Notes References 3. Closing MENA’s Water Gap Is Costly and Challenging Strategic Approach 3.1 Schematic Representation of Marginal Water Cost Curve Unit Costs of Tactical Options Alleviating the Demand Gap 3.1 Effect of Tactical Options under the Average Climate Scenario to Reduce MENA Water Demand Gap by 2040–50 3.2 Desalination Will Play a Significant Role in Closing the Water Demand Gap in Most MENA Countries by 2040–50 3.3 Ranking and Magnitude of Tactical Options to Fill the Water Gap by 2050 Vary Considerably by Country Phasing of Tactical Options Strongly Influenced by Sunk Investment Transition from Conventional to CSP Desalination 3.4 Typical Desalination Plant Life Curves, 2010–50 Phasing the Tactical Options Costs of Adaptation Measures 3.5 Maximum Annual Capacity Additions for CSP Desalination Plants in MENA 3.6 Cost-Optimized Pattern of Future Water Supply for MENA under the “Average” Climate Change Scenario, 2000–50 3.2 Adaptation Costs by Country Ranked by Costs per Capita Notes References 4. Desalination in MENA and Its Energy Implications 4.1 Distribution of Worldwide Desalination Capacity, 2007 4.2 Share of National Water Demand in MENA Met by Desalination, 2010 Growth of Desalination in MENA and Associated Challenges 4.3 Growth of On-Line Desalination Capacity in MENA, 1950–2010 4.1 Efficiency of Converting Saline to Fresh Water and Brine Effluents 4.2 Summary Characteristics of Various Commercial Desalination Technologies Future Trends in Desalination 4.4 Forecast of Annual Global Growth of Desalination by Technology, 2006–16 4.5 MENA Prominent among Top 15 Desalination Markets, 2007–16 4.3 Seawater Characteristics Vary Widely in MENA 4.4 Typical Capital Investment Costs of Desalinated Seawater Boxes 4.1 Desalination Is a Possible Option for Sana’a, The Republic of Yemen, but Transport Costs Could Be Prohibitive 4.5 Typical Operational Costs of Desalinated Seawater Desalination Will Increase MENA’s Energy Demand 4.6 Total Annualized Cost of Desalinated Seawater 4.7 Estimated Installed Capacity and Primary Energy Use for Desalination in Selected MENA Countries, 2003–10 Can Energy Intensity of Desalination Be Reduced? 4.6 Components of Total Annual Desalination Costs 4.7 Reduction in MSF Desalination Cost, 1955–2005 4.8 Reduction in RO Power Consumption, 1970–2010 MENA’s Renewable Energy Potential 4.1 Gross Hydropower Potential 4.2 Annual Average Wind Speed at 80 m above Ground (m/sec) 4.3 Annual Sum of Direct Normal Irradiation, 2011 4.4 Concentrating Solar Power Potential in the MENA Region, 2011 4.8 Estimated Renewable Electricity Potential for MENA Countries 4.9 LECs of CSP and Other Technologies Notes References 5. Potential for Renewable Energy Desalination Factors Affecting Renewable Energy Desalination Linkages 5.1 Global Renewable Energy Desalination by Energy Source, 2009 5.1 Costs of Desalinated Seawater from Renewable Energy Alternatives 5.2 Renewable Energy Production from Photovoltaics, Wind, and Concentrating Solar Power at Hurghada Site, Egypt 5.2 Comparison of Principal Features of Solar Thermal Storage Technologies 5.1 GemaSolar Central Receiver Plant Project, Fuentes de Andalucía, Spain CSP and Desalination Plant Design Considerations 5.3 Storage System in a Trough Solar Plant 5.4 Different Configurations of CSP Thermal Storage 5.3 Annual Full Load Hours of CSP Plant for Different Solar Multiple, Latitude, and Level of Annual Direct Normal Irradiance 5.5 Linear Fresnel Collector, Plataforma Solar de Almeria, Spain 5.6 Linking the Choice of Solar Collection System to Power Generation and Desalination 5.4 Comparison of Concentrating Solar Power Collecting Systems 5.7 Typical Configurations of CSP Desalination by the Type of Renewable Energy 5.8 CSP Desalination Plant Configurations 5.5 Main Financial Assumptions for CSP Desal CAPEX and OPEX Calculation 5.6 Capital Costs of Two Main CSP Desalination Configuration Options 5.9 Levelized Water Production Costs by Plant Type and Location Innovation and Scaling-Up Will Reduce Costs 5.10 Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants Compared to Specific Cost of Peak-, Medium-, and Baseload Plants 5.11 Phased Market Introduction of CSP, 2010–50 Notes References 6. Environmental Impacts of Desalination Desalination: Atmospheric Pollution Desalination: Marine Pollution 6.1 Disposal of Incremental Volume of Brines from Desalination by 2050 6.1 Desalination in the Gulf and Its Environmental Impacts, 2007 Desalination-Brine Disposal Options 6.2 Environmental Requirements for Desalination 6.3 Challenges of Brine Disposal 6.1 Scale-Dependent Capital Costs of Concentrate Disposal Options 6.4 Cost Comparison of Brine Concentrate Disposal Necessity for Environmental Impact Assessment 6.1 Cutting Environmental Management Costs: Brine Harvesting Regional Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Are Needed Notes References 7. CSP Desalination and Regional Energy Initiatives Energy Consumption in MENA 7.1 Estimated MENA Electricity Generation, Installed Capacity, and CO2 Emissions, 2010 7.1 How Increased Energy Intensity Can Lead to Overall Energy Savings 7.1 Stages of Energy Use in Water Supply, Distribution, and Use Managing Barriers to Renewable Energy-Based Desalination 7.2 Barriers to RE Desalination in MENA Notes References 8. Conclusions MENA’s Water Scarcity Is Bound to Grow MENA Increasingly Will Rely on Desalination Solar Energy Is MENA’s Abundant Renewable Resource Costs of Inaction Will Be High The Solutions Are at Hand Next Steps Note Appendix A Water Demand and Supply in MENA Region A.1 MENA Water Demand and Supply, 2000–50 Climate Change Will Affect MENA’s Future Water Supply A.1 Declining per Capita Water Availability: A Growing Threat in MENA A.1 Five-Year Moving Averages of Projected Precipitation, Temperature, and Potential Evapotranspiration for Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, 2010–50 A.2 Projected Changes in Precipitation across MENA, 2010–50 A.2 Wide Range of Average Annual Precipitation among MENA Countries, 2000–09 A.3 Predicted Water Availability in the MENA Region, 2010–50 A.3 Predicted Changes in Water Availability in the MENA Region, 2010–50 Current and Future Water Demand A.4 Relation between per Capita Domestic Water Withdrawals and GDP A.5 Global Comparisons of per Capita Domestic Water Demand A.4 Distribution of MENA Areas Equipped for Irrigation, 2009 A.2 MENA Irrigation Water Demand A.3 MENA Water Demand Gap under Three Climate Scenarios, 2000–50 A.6 Balance of Demand and Supply in MENA under Average Climate Change Scenario, 2000–50 A.7 Balance of Demand and Supply in MENA under Dry Climate Change Scenario, 2000–50 A.8 Large Water Demand Gap in MENA Countries under Average Climate Change Scenario, 2000–50 A.9 Assessment of Individual Countries A.4 Current and Future Water Demand and Unmet Demand Gap under the Average Climate Projection (MCM) Notes References Appendix B Imperative for Demand and Supply Management Improving Institutions B.1 Saudi Arabia’s 2009 Draft National Water Strategy Promotes Far-Reaching Water Management Reforms Demand Management B.1 High-Tech Agricultural Packages Increase Water Use Efficiency B.2 Value of Groundwater Depletion in Selected MENA Countries as Share of GDP B.3 Nonrevenue Water Rates for Utilities in Selected MENA Countries and Cities B.1 Priorities for Reducing Nonrevenue Water Conventional Supply Management Options Are Limited B.1 United Arab Emirates Groundwater Resources Are Large but Mostly Brackish B.2 Recycled Water Is a Valuable Resource: Examples from Kuwait and Tunisia Notes B.4 Cost Range for Water Reuse References Appendix C The True Cost of Desalination C.1 Subsidized Electricity Costs: Morocco and Saudi Arabia C.2 Nonsubsidized Energy Cost C.3 Subsidized and Nonsubsidized Steam Price C.4 Preliminary Analysis Results: Investment Cost Breakdown and LEC, Heavy Fuel Oil C.5 Preliminary Analysis Results: Investment Cost Breakdown and LEC, Natural Gas C.6 CAPEX Cost Estimate of Typical SWRO Plant 100,000 m3 per day Comprising Pretreatment of FF1 C.7 OPEX Cost Estimation of Typical MED Plant Notes References Appendix D Summary of Renewable Energy Policies and Legislation in MENA D.1 Status of Renewable Energy Policies and Legislation in MENA Notes Reference The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region is one of the most water stressed regions in the world. Water scarcity has already become a challenge to development in many of the countries. Due to increasing population and Projected climate change impacts, MENA's annual water demand gap is projected to grow five-fold by 2050. Despite its extreme scarcity, water is managed poorly. Inefficiencies are common in the agriculture, municipal and industrial systems; and many utilities are financially unsustainable. As a result, countries overexploit their fossil aquifers-- and use desalination by fossil fuel-- to meet the water demand gap. Desalination already plays a critical role in MENA's water supply portfolio. However, desalination is costly, energy intensive and has environmental impacts. On current trends, the projection is that, by 2050, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the Region will consume for desalination most of the oil that they produce. Overexploitation of fossil aquifers is not sustainable. Neither is the use of fossil fuel for desalination to meet the growing water gap sustainable. This book outlines the challenges in terms of water (and also in terms of energy) that countries in the Region face and analyzes the scope of available options to address the growing water gap. The book estimates MENA's water gap today and into the future-- until 2050; and presents a methodology to prioritize options to bridge the water gap, using the 'marginal cost of water' approach. The book also assesses the viability of renewable energy desalination as an important option to close the Region's water gap. The book compares the economic cost of desalination using fossil fuel and renewable energy sources, in particular the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). The book also provides recommendations as to how CSP based desalination could ensure sustainable water supply for the Region