Regions of War and Peace (Cambridge Studies in International Relations, Series Number 80)

In this contribution to the literature on the causes of war, Douglas Lemke asks whether the same factors affect minor powers as affect major ones. He investigates whether power parity and dissatisfaction with the status quo have an impact within Africa, the Far East, the Middle East, and South America. Lemke argues that there are similarities across these regions and levels of power, and that parity and dissatisfaction are correlates of war around the world. The extent to which they increase the risk of war varies across regions, however, and the book looks at the possible sources of this cross-regional variation, concluding that differential progress toward development is the likely cause. This book will interest students and scholars of international relations and peace studies, as well as comparative politics and area studies. Cover......Page 1 Half-title......Page 3 Series-title......Page 5 Title......Page 7 Copyright......Page 8 Dedication......Page 9 Contents......Page 11 Acknowledgments......Page 13 1 Introduction......Page 15 Western/great power bias in “what we know”......Page 17 Square pegs and round holes: can we combine great powers and minor powers?......Page 22 Does the Third World matter?......Page 27 Plan of the book......Page 29 Conclusions......Page 32 What is power transition theory?......Page 35 Problems with the theory......Page 41 The “accuracy problem”......Page 42 The “timing problem”......Page 43 The “powerful-therefore-satisfied problem”......Page 45 The “prevention problem”......Page 47 Empirical evidence about power transition theory......Page 49 Why power transition theory instead of a strategic theory?......Page 52 Conclusions......Page 60 3 Theoretical revision: the multiple hierarchy model......Page 62 The structure of the international system......Page 63 Great power interference in local hierarchies......Page 64 What is the local status quo?......Page 67 Past conceptualizations of multiple international systems......Page 71 An alternate application of the multiple hierarchy model......Page 75 Conclusions: requirements for evaluation of the multiple hierarchy model......Page 78 Operational definition of local hierarchies......Page 81 South America......Page 95 Middle East......Page 96 Far East......Page 98 Africa......Page 101 Great Power overarching hierarchy......Page 103 Assessing the validity of local hierarchies......Page 107 Measuring power and parity......Page 112 Measuring status quo evaluations......Page 113 Conclusions......Page 123 Units of analysis and the dependent variable......Page 126 Theoretical and statistical issues in pooling observations......Page 129 Another consideration: controlling for time......Page 131 A first analysis......Page 132 Persistent cross-regional variation......Page 135 A digression about proper-noun control variables......Page 140 A second analysis: adding additional control variables......Page 143 Conflict prior to the time-frame of my analysis......Page 150 Conclusions......Page 157 6 Further investigations I: great power interference?......Page 160 Including great power interference in local hierarchies......Page 161 Defining great power membership in local hierarchies......Page 162 Replication with great powers as actors in local hierarchies......Page 165 A second consideration of great power interference......Page 169 Conclusions......Page 174 7 Further investigations II: an African (interstate) Peace?......Page 175 An African Peace?......Page 177 Cross-regional variation is coincidental......Page 185 “Theory”-driven explanation for cross-regional variation......Page 187 Cross-regional variation is due to region-specific measurement error......Page 197 Conclusions......Page 206 Summary......Page 209 Implications for policy and research......Page 212 Directions for continued research......Page 214 Final thoughts......Page 219 Appendix: Replications with Correlates of War capabilities data......Page 221 References......Page 230 Index......Page 245 Cover 1 Half-title 3 Series-title 5 Title 7 Copyright 8 Dedication 9 Contents 11 Acknowledgments 13 1 Introduction 15 Issues at stake in this book 17 Western/great power bias in “what we know” 17 Square pegs and round holes: can we combine great powers and minor powers? 22 Does the Third World matter? 27 Plan of the book 29 Conclusions 32 2 Theoretical origins 35 What is power transition theory? 35 Problems with the theory 41 The “accuracy problem” 42 The “timing problem” 43 The “powerful-therefore-satisfied problem” 45 The “prevention problem” 47 Empirical evidence about power transition theory 49 Why power transition theory instead of a strategic theory? 52 Conclusions 60 3 Theoretical revision: the multiple hierarchy model 62 The multiple hierarchy model 63 The structure of the international system 63 Great power interference in local hierarchies 64 What is the local status quo? 67 Past conceptualizations of multiple international systems 71 An alternate application of the multiple hierarchy model 75 Conclusions: requirements for evaluation of the multiple hierarchy model 78 4 Identifying local hierarchies and measuring key variables 81 Operational definition of local hierarchies 81 South America 95 Middle East 96 Far East 98 Africa 101 Great Power overarching hierarchy 103 Assessing the validity of local hierarchies 107 Measuring power and parity 112 Measuring status quo evaluations 113 Conclusions 123 5 Empirical investigations 126 Units of analysis and the dependent variable 126 Theoretical and statistical issues in pooling observations 129 Another consideration: controlling for time 131 Empirical results 132 A first analysis 132 Persistent cross-regional variation 135 A digression about proper-noun control variables 140 A second analysis: adding additional control variables 143 Conflict prior to the time-frame of my analysis 150 Conclusions 157 6 Further investigations I: great power interference? 160 Including great power interference in local hierarchies 161 Defining great power membership in local hierarchies 162 Replication with great powers as actors in local hierarchies 165 A second consideration of great power interference 169 Conclusions 174 7 Further investigations II: an African (interstate) Peace? 175 An African Peace? 177 Cross-regional variation is coincidental 185 “Theory”-driven explanation for cross-regional variation 187 Cross-regional variation is due to region-specific measurement error 197 Conclusions 206 8 Conclusions, implications and directions for continued research 209 Summary 209 Implications for policy and research 212 Directions for continued research 214 Final thoughts 219 Appendix: Replications with Correlates of War capabilities data 221 References 230 Index 245 Douglas Lemke inquires as to whether the factors that lead to war among great powers also apply to other countries, considering different regional circumstances and historical experiences. The book examines Africa, the Far East, the Middle East and South America, and argues that the causes of war are similar across these regions, but that there are differences based on varying patterns of development. This book will interest students and scholars of international relations, peace studies, comparative politics and area studies. Douglas Lemke's book asks whether the causes of war among great powers also apply to other countries, given different regional circumstances and historical experiences. The book examines Africa, the Far East, the Middle East and South America, and argues that the causes of wars are similar across these regions

asks Whether The Causes Of War Among Great Powers Apply To Other Countries, Examining Regions Around The World.