Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, And The Czech Republic, 1990-1999 (cambridge Studies In Comparative Politics)

This study demonstrates that in a time of massive change characterized by the emergence of entirely new political systems and a fundamental reorganization of economic life, systematic patterns of economic conditions affecting election results at the aggregate level can in fact be identified during the first decade of post-communist elections in five post-communist countries: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. A variety of theoretical arguments concerning the conditions in which these effects are more or less likely to be present are also proposed and tested. Analysis is conducted using an original data set of regional level economic, demographic, and electoral indicators, and features both broadly based comparative assessments of the findings across all twenty elections as well as more focused case study analyses of pairs of individual elections. Cover......Page 1 Half-title......Page 3 Series-title......Page 5 Title......Page 7 Copyright......Page 8 Dedication......Page 9 Contents......Page 11 Tables......Page 13 Acknowledgments......Page 17 Party Acronyms and Candidate Abbreviations......Page 21 1 Introduction......Page 25 Economic Voting......Page 28 Case Selection......Page 37 Terms......Page 44 Research Design and Organization of the Book......Page 47 Distinguishing Characteristics of Elections in Transition Countries......Page 51 Standard Economic Voting Hypotheses......Page 54 A Referendum Model......Page 56 A Transitional Identity Model......Page 62 Summary of and Observations on Standard Economic Voting Models and Hypotheses......Page 71 Conditional Economic Voting Hypotheses......Page 76 Intuitive Conditional Hypotheses......Page 78 Theoretically Based Conditional Economic Voting Hypotheses......Page 79 Conclusion......Page 100 3 Comparative Cross-Regional Analysis......Page 102 Method of Empirical Analysis......Page 104 Economic Variables......Page 107 The Statistical Model......Page 114 Robustness Tests......Page 124 Advantages and Disadvantages of Comparative Cross-Regional Analysis......Page 127 Advantages of Comparative Gross-Redional Analysis......Page 129 Drawbacks of Comparative Cross-Regional Analysis......Page 136 4 Paired Case Studies......Page 150 Case Study #1: Early Decade Parliamentary Elections: 1992 Czech and Slovak Elections......Page 151 Case Study #2: Mid-Decade Presidential Elections: 1995 Polish and 1996 Russian Presidential Elections......Page 154 Case Study #3: Russian Parliamentary Elections: 1993, 1995, and 1999......Page 159 Case Study #4: Late Decade Incumbent-Old Regime Elections: 1997 Polish and 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections......Page 169 5 The Incumbency Hypothesis......Page 176 Defining Incumbency......Page 177 Coding the Case Studies......Page 182 Case Study 1: 1992 Czech and Slovak Parliamentary Elections......Page 183 Case Study 2: 1995 Polish and 1996 Russian Presidential Elections......Page 185 Case Study 3: 1993, 1995, and 1999 Russian Parliamentary Elections......Page 186 Case Study 4: 1997 Polish and 1998 Hungarian Elections......Page 187 Empirical Results: Paired Case Studies......Page 188 Comparative Analysis......Page 191 Intuitive Explanations......Page 192 Responsibility Hypotheses......Page 196 Supply-Side Hypotheses......Page 199 Time Based Hypotheses......Page 200 Conclusions......Page 201 Appendix 5.1: Coding of Primary and Other Coalition Partners......Page 202 6 The New Regime Hypothesis......Page 208 Coding New Regime Parties......Page 209 Case Study #1: 1992 Czech and Slovak Parliamentary Elections......Page 213 Case Study #2: 1995 Polish and 1996 Russian Presidential Elections......Page 214 Case Study #3: 1993, 1995, and 1999 Russian Parliamentary Elections......Page 215 Case Study #4: 1997 Polish and 1998 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections......Page 216 Empirical Results: Paired Case Studies......Page 219 Comparative Analysis......Page 221 Intuitive Explanations......Page 222 Responsibility Hypotheses......Page 225 Supply-Side Hypotheses......Page 228 New Regime Orientation Hypothesis......Page 229 Time-Based Hypotheses......Page 231 Conclusions......Page 233 Appendix 6.1: Borderline New Regime Parties......Page 234 7 The Old Regime Hypothesis......Page 239 Coding Old Regime Parties......Page 240 Empirical Results: Paired Case Studies......Page 245 Comparative Analysis......Page 249 Intuitive Explanations......Page 250 Responsibility Hypotheses......Page 260 Supply-Side Hypotheses......Page 262 Time-Based Hypotheses......Page 263 Conclusions......Page 265 8 Comparative Analysis......Page 268 Comparing the Transitional Identity and Referendum Models......Page 269 Alternative Specification of the Original Model......Page 273 Examining Subsections of the Data......Page 276 Comparative Analysis: Conclusions......Page 281 Intuitive Conditional Economic Voting Approaches......Page 284 Responsibility-Based Conditional Economic Voting Approaches......Page 286 Supply-Side Conditional Economic Voting Approaches......Page 289 Partisan Orientation and Time-Based Conditional Economic Voting Approaches......Page 291 Interacting the Transitional Identity and Referendum Models......Page 294 Conclusions......Page 296 Appendix 8.1: Supplementary Table......Page 298 Economic Voting and Empirical Support for the Transitional Identity Model......Page 300 Conditional Economic Voting......Page 306 Postcommunist Politics and the Stickiness of Transitional Identities......Page 310 Long-Term Future of the Transitional Identity Model......Page 312 The Postcommunist Politics Literature......Page 319 Regional Economic Voting and Patterns of National Election Results......Page 326 Final Observations......Page 330 Appendix I: National Election Results......Page 333 Appendix II: Regression Results and Documentation......Page 343 Appendix III: Estimated Distributions of First Differences......Page 380 Appendix IV: Percentage of Positive Simulations by Party......Page 399 Works Cited......Page 403 Index......Page 429

This book examines the effect of economic conditions on election results in five post-communist countries—Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic—in the first decade of post-communist elections. It is the first book length study of economic voting outside of established democracies, as well as one of the few comparative studies of voting in post-communist countries generally. The study relies on an original database composed of regional level economic, demographic, and electoral data, and the analysis features a broadly based comparative assessment of the findings across all twenty elections as well as more focused case study analysis.

This book examines the effect of economic conditions on election results in five post-communist countries - Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic - in the first decade of post-communist elections. It is the first book length study of economic voting outside of established democracies Joshua A. Tucker. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 379-404) And Index.