Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen: The Huthi Phenomenon (Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG-962-DIA)

For nearly six years, the government of Yemen has conducted military operations north of the capital against groups of its citizens known as 'Huthis.' In spite of using all means at its disposal, the government has been unable to subdue the Huthi movement. This book presents an in-depth look at the conflict in all its aspects. The authors detail the various stages of the conflict and map out its possible future trajectories. Yemen's security forces have carried out hundreds of arbitrary arrests and dozens of enforced disappearances of civilians in the context of its armed conflict with rebels known as Huthis in the northern governorate of Sa'da. The Huthis, named after their original leader, took up arms in 2004 when the government closed their Zaidi Shi'a religious schools. Among those detained were family members held as hostages, others apparently arrested for their religious activism, and civilians held on suspicion of sympathizing with the Huthis. Since 2007, the authorities have also targeted people who published critical news about the conflict. Following a ceasefire in July 2008, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced the release of some Zaidi prisoners, but an unknown number remain detained and new arrests have taken place. This report documents the ease and impunity with which security forces arbitrarily arrest and sometimes "disappear" persons. In nearly all cases, officials did not identify themselves or inform the detainee or his family why or where he was being taken. Most detainees, when they reappeared, have done so at the Political Security Organization, the domestic intelligence agency linked to the president's office. The report calls for independent investigations into human rights violations and the prosecution of those responsible -- and for the Yemeni government to take immediate measures to end the practice of enforced disappearances, to release all persons arbitrarily arrested and detained, and to promptly try persons charged with a cognizable criminal offense in a fair trial meeting international standards For nearly six years, the Government of Yemen (GoY) has conducted military operations against groups of its citizens north of San'a, known as "Huthis" or Believing Youth (BY). In spite of using all coercive and ideological means at its disposal, the GoY has been unable to fully subdue the Huthi movement, which has sustained a material and popular base over successive phases of armed conflict into the winter of 2010. At the same time, the regime has confronted mounting southern discontent and al-Qa'ida-inspired terrorism, as well as severely contracting economic prospects. The war against the Huthis, however, has of late absorbed more of the GoY's political attention and coercive resources than these other issues, weakening the state's ability to deal with the multiple challenges it faces. The Huthi conflict thus presents an enduing threat both to the regime of President 'Ali 'Abdullah Saleh and to the stability of Yemen as a unitary state. It also fundamentally impairs the GoY's ability to function as a U.S. partner for regional security, stability, and counterterrorism. Furthermore, armed confrontation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Huthi fighters beginning in November-December 2009 has added a transnational dimension to the conflict and risks pulling in other regional countries, such as Iran. Such an eventuality would fundamentally undermine security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf, harming the regional interests of the United States while it is engaged in Iraq, Afghanistan, and nuclear negotiations with Iran Introduction -- The context of regime-periphery relations in Northern Yemen. Sa'da in the North Yemeni context -- The sociocultural ecology of the Huthi conflict : tribalism and religion -- From tension to conflict : social change and Huthi emergence, 1980s-2004. Run-up to the regime-Huthi conflict, 1980s-2001 -- From tension to confrontation : triggers of conflict, 2001-2004 -- The six Sa'da wars. From phases to rolling conflict : time line, geography, and magnitude of Huthi-GoY fighting -- GoY operations : goals and methods -- The Huthis as combatants -- Conflict prolongers : the environmental, human, and economic consequences of Huthi-GoY fighting -- Conclusion "For nearly six years, the Government of Yemen (GoY) has conducted military operations north of the capital against groups of its citizens known as "Huthis." In spite of using all means at its disposal, as of the beginning of 2010, the GoY has been unable to subdue the Huthi movement. Along with southern discontent and al-Qa'ida-inspired terrorism, the Huthi conflict presents an enduring threat to the regime of President 'Ali 'Abdullah Saleh and the stability of Yemen."--Page xv Since June 2004 an armed conflict in northern Yemen all but ignored outside the country has displaced up to 130,000 people, a great many of whom remained out of the reach of humanitarian agencies as of October 2008. Caught between the government and an armed group known as the Huthis, these displaced civilians are among the invisible victims of war Methodology -- Background -- The information blackout -- Fighting and civilian losses in 2008 -- Displacement during 2008 -- Lack of humanitarian access -- The United Nations and international donors -- Recommendations