Red Team Handbook: Version 6.0 April 2012

Table of Content Introduction SECTION I: Red Team Fundamentals and Methodology SECTION II: Interpersonal Skills Communications Negotiations Group Dynamics Personality Instruments SECTION III: Operational Environment The 13 Critical Variables 1. Physical Environment 2. Nature and Stability of Critical Actors 3. Sociological Demographics 4. Culture 5. Regional and Global Relationships 6. Military Capabilities 7. Information 8. Technology 9. External Organizations 10. National Will and Will of Critical Actors 11. Time 12. Economics 13. Religion Mapping the Critical Variables to PMESII+PT and METT-TC SECTION IV: Theory and the Challenges of Human Cognition—Their Effect on Decision Making Theory The Challenges of Human Thinking Analytic Decision making Intuitive Decision making Mental Simulation SECTION V: Design and Problem Framing The Meaning of [Operational] Design: Red Team Role in the Army Design Methodology: Problem Framing46F SECTION VI: Plans and operations Military Decision Making Process Assessment Process Validating Assumptions Challenges to Effective Planning SECTION VII: Culture SECTION VIII: Critical Analysis and Reviews SECTION IX: Reachback SECTION X: Research SECTION XI: Structured Analytic Techniques98F ,99F Red Team Techniques and Procedures 9 Step Cultural Methodology Cultural Perception Framework Pre-mortem Analysis ADSO “String of Pearls” Analysis Tool Structured Analytic Techniques Stakeholder Mapping Diagnostic Techniques Key Assumptions Check Quality of Information Check Indicators or Signposts of Change Deception Detection Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Contrarian Techniques Devil’s Advocacy Team A/Team B High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis “What If?” Analysis Imaginative Thinking Techniques Brainstorming Outside-In Thinking Red Team Analysis Alternative Futures Analysis Argument Deconstruction Framework (and Common Logic Fallacies) Problem Restatement Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Strategies for Using Structured Analytic Techniques SECTION XII: Briefing Standards Proposed Introductory Red Team Briefing Briefing 101 Elevator Briefs SECTION XIII: Topical Bibliography SECTION XIV: Index