Rationality for Mortals: Risk and Rules of Thumb (Evolution and Cognition Series)

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking , also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making. Bounded And Rational -- Fast And Frugal Heuristics -- Rules Of Thumb In Animals And Humans -- I Think, Therefore I Err -- Striking A Blow For Sanity In Theories Of Rationality -- Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Fire -- What's In A Sample? A Manual For Building Cognitive Theories -- A 30 Percent Chance Of Rain Tomorrow -- Understanding Risks In Health Care -- The Evolution Of Statistical Thinking -- Mindless Statistics -- Children Can Solve Bayesian Problems -- In The Year 2054 : Innumeracy Defeated. Gerd Gigerenzer. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 203-229) And Indexes. Preface 1. Bounded and Rational 2. Fast and Frugal heuristics 3. Rules of Thumb in Animals and Humans 4. I Think, Therefore I Err 5. Striking a Blow for Sanity in Theories of Rationality 6. Out of the Frying Pan Into the Fire 7. What's in a Sample? A Manual for Building Cognitive Theories 8. "A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow" 9. Simple Tools for Understanding Risks: From Innumeracy to Insight 10. The Evolution of Statistical Thinking 11. Mindless Statistics 12. Children Can Solve Bayesian Problems 13. In the year 2054" Innumeracy Defeated References Subject Index Name index Gerd Gigerenzer's work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behaviour and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behaviour is more rational than it might otherwise appear