Rationality And The Analysis Of International Conflict (cambridge Studies In International Relations)

In this book, Michael Nicholson outlines social scientific approaches to international relations and then describes the problems of rational decision-making in conflict situations. He shows how rationality is in many strategic situations hard to define and often leads to paradoxes such as the prisoners dilemma, and explores rational beliefs about the international system. He examines theories of arms races, alliances, and the international problems of ecology. Here he is critical of the classical school of international relations for a lack of rigor in dealing with the problems of evidence and belief. Finally, Michael Nicholson discusses the philosophy of science, policy, and ethics. This book is both an exposition and a defense of a social scientific approach to international relations. With its emphasis on social scientific approaches, theory building and testing-and above all its clarity and accessibility-it provides students with a key to understanding the complex field of conflict analysis. This Book Is Both An Exposition And A Defence Of A Social Scientific Approach To Conflict In International Relations. Professor Nicholson Addresses Two Central Questions. To What Extent Can We Usefully Discuss Behaviour In Violent Or Potentially Violent International Conflict As Rational? How Do We Formulate And Test Theories In International Relations So That We Can Rationally Believe In Them? After Outlining Social Scientific Approaches To International Relations, The Author Describes The Problems Of Rational Decision Making In Conflict Situations. He Shows How Rationality Is In Many Strategic Situations Hard To Define And Often Leads To Paradoxes Such As The Prisoners' Dilemma. Psychological Stress Can Further Result In The Distortion Of Decision Processes In Times Of Crisis. Professor Nicholson Pays Particular Attention To Such Distortions And Also Analyses How Unconscious Motivation Relates To The Rational Choice Framework. In The Following Part, The Author Explores Rational Beliefs About The International System. He Examines Theories Of Arms Races, Alliances And The International Problems Of Ecology. Here He Is Critical Of The Classical School Of International Relations For A Lack Of Rigour In Dealing With The Problems Of Evidence And Belief. Finally, He Discusses The Philosophy Of Science, Policy And Ethics. With Its Emphasis On Social Scientific Approaches, Theory Building And Testing--and Above All Its Clarity And Accessibility--rationality And The Analysis Of International Conflict Provides Students With A Key To Understanding The Complex Field Of Conflict Analysis. This Book Will Therefore Be Core Reading For Courses On International Relations, And It Will Also Be Read By Students And Specialists Of Political Science And Economics. Introduction: Rationality And The Analysis Of Conflict -- Pt. I. Conflict. 1. Concepts Of Conflict. 1. The Definition Of Conflict. 2. Deadly Quarrels. 3. Violence And Structural Violence. 4. Conflict Analysis And Its Relatives. 2. Social Science And The Study Of Conflict. 1. The Nature Of The Social Sciences. 2. The Level Of Analysis. 3. A Preliminary View Of Scientific Development. 4. Facts And Evidence. 5. Competitive Theories: Scientific Research Programmes And Paradigms. 6. Theories Of Human Beings -- Pt. Ii. Rational Behaviour. 3. Rationality And Conflict. 1. Rationality And International Relations. 2. Simple Rationality. 3. Decision Taking As A Group Process. 4. The Theory Of Games. 4. Conflict And The Paradoxes Of Rationality. 1. The 'prisoners' Dilemma' And The 'sure-thing Principle'. 2. Avoiding The Paradox: Some Tentative Approaches. 3. Games Of Disarmament. 4. The Game Of 'chicken'. 5. Another Look At Nuclear Deterrence. 5. The Zero-sum Game: Solutions And Interpretations. 1. The Solution Of The Zero-sum Game. 2. Hostility And The Structure Of Games. 3. Games Of Distribution. Appendix: Mixed Strategies. 6. Emotion And Rationality. 1. Rationality And Violence. 2. The Uses And Abuses Of Aggression. 3. Ambivalence And Violence. 4. A Model Of The Mind. 5. Preferences: The Definition Of Identity. 6. Justifications Of This Analysis. 7. The Relation To Rational Choice. 7. International Crises: The Warping Of Rationality. 1. The Nature Of International Crises. 2. Definitions And Attributes. 3. Adjustment To Overload. 4. The Individual's Responses To Crisis. 5. The Group's Responses To Crisis. 6. Crisis And Rationality. Rational Behaviour And Rational Choice: An Assessment -- Pt. Iii. Rational Belief: Some Topics In Conflict Analysis. 8. The Statistical Analysis Of Warlike Phenomena. 1. War As A Suitable Subject For Statistical Analysis. 2. The Quantity Of Violence. 3. The Analysis Of Statistical Hypotheses. 4. The Frequency Of Wars. 9. Arms And Arms Races. 1. The Significance Of Armaments. 2. The Richardson Theory Of Arms Races. 3. Some Implications Of The Richardson Theory. 4. Difficulties And Extensions. 5. Arms Races And War. 6. Alternatives And Tests. 10. Ecology And The Free-rider. 1. The Ecological Problem. 2. The 'limits To Growth' And Global Modelling. 3. The Social Mechanisms Of Pollution. 4. The Free-rider. 5. Conclusions. 11. The Theory Of Alliances. 1. The Problem Of Alliances. 2. The Balance Of Power. 3. The Statistical Testing Of The Alliance Theories. 4. Alliances And War -- Pt. Iv. Conclusion. 12. The Critics. 1. Introduction. 2. The Aping Of The Natural Sciences. 3. Some Supposed Sins Of The Social Scientist. 4. Contradictions And The Coyness Of Critics. 13. Social Science And Values. 1. Social Science And Ethical Neutrality. 2. Policy, Science And Values. 3. Conflict And Violence. 4. Some Further Problems Of Policy Advice. 5. Conclusion. Michael Nicholson. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 243-250) And Index. In this book, Professor Nicholson outlines social scientific approaches to international relations and then describes the problems of rational decision-making in conflict situations. He shows how rationality is in many strategic situations hard to define and often leads to paradoxes such as the prisoners' dilemma. In the following part the author explores rational beliefs about the international system. He examines theories of arms races, alliances and the international problems of ecology. Here he is critical of the classical school of international relations for a lack of rigour in dealing with the problems of evidence and belief. Finally, Michael Nicholson discusses the philosophy of science, policy and ethics. This book is both an exposition and a defence of a social scientific approach to international relations. With its emphasis on social scientific approaches, theory building and testing - and above all its clarity and accessibility - it provides students with a key to understanding the complex field of conflict analysis