Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Book 299)

This book highlights quantitative risk assessment and modeling methods for assessing health risks caused by air pollution, as well as characterizing and communicating remaining uncertainties. It shows how to apply modern data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning, causal analytics, mathematical modeling, and risk analysis to better quantify human health risks caused by environmental and occupational exposures to air pollutants. The adverse health effects that are caused by air pollution, and preventable by reducing it, instead of merely being statistically associated with exposure to air pollution (and with other many conditions, from cold weather to low income) have proved to be difficult to quantify with high precision and confidence, largely because correlation is not causation. This book shows how to use recent advances in causal analytics and risk analysis to determine more accurately how reducing exposures affects human health risks. __Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects__ is divided into three parts. Part I focuses mainly on quantitative simulation modelling of biological responses to exposures and resulting health risks. It considers occupational risks from asbestos and crystalline silica as examples, showing how dynamic simulation models can provide insights into more effective policies for protecting worker health. Part II examines limitations of regression models and the potential to instead apply machine learning, causal analysis, and Bayesian network learning methods for more accurate quantitative risk assessment, with applications to occupational risks from inhalation exposures. Finally, Part III examines applications to public health risks from air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. The book applies freely available browser analytics software and data sets that allow readers to download data and carry out many of the analyses described, in addition to applying the techniques discussed to their own data. http://cox-associates.com:8899/ Front Matter ....Pages i-xiv Front Matter ....Pages 1-1 Scientific Method for Health Risk Analysis: The Example of Fine Particulate Matter Air Pollution and COVID-19 Mortality Risk (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 3-26 Modeling Nonlinear Dose-Response Functions: Regression, Simulation, and Causal Networks (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 27-61 Simulating Exposure-Related Health Effects: Basic Ideas (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 63-77 Case Study: Occupational Health Risks from Crystalline Silica (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 79-115 Case Study: Health Risks from Asbestos Exposures (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 117-158 Nonlinear Dose-Time-Response Risk Models for Protecting Worker Health (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 159-177 Front Matter ....Pages 179-179 Why Not Replace Quantitative Risk Assessment Models with Regression Models? (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 181-193 Causal vs. Spurious Spatial Exposure-Response Associations in Health Risk Analysis (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 195-217 Methods of Causal Analysis for Health Risk Assessment with Observational Data (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 219-281 Clarifying Exposure-Response Regression Coefficients with Bayesian Networks: Blood Lead-Mortality Associations an Example (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 283-304 Case Study: Does Molybdenum Decrease Testosterone? (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 305-323 Case Study: Are Low Concentrations of Benzene Disproportionately Dangerous? (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 325-353 Front Matter ....Pages 355-355 Socioeconomic Correlates of Air Pollution and Heart Disease (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 357-372 How Realistic Are Estimates of Health Benefits from Air Pollution Control? (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 373-394 Do Causal Concentration-Response Functions Exist? (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 395-448 How Do Exposure Estimation Errors Affect Estimated Exposure-Response Relations? (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 449-474 Have Decreases in Air Pollution Reduced Mortality Risks in the United States? (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 475-505 Improving Causal Determination (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 507-523 Communicating More Clearly About Deaths Caused by Air Pollution (Louis Anthony Cox Jr.)....Pages 525-540 Back Matter ....Pages 541-544