Qualitative Choice Analysis: Theory, Econometrics, and an Application to Automobile Demand (Transportation Studies) (Mit Press Series in Transportation Studies, No 10)

This book addresses two significant research areas in an interdependent fashion. It is first of all a comprehensive but concise text that covers the recently developed and widely applicable methods of qualitative choice analysis, illustrating the general theory through simulation models of automobile demand and use. It is also a detailed study of automobile demand and use, presenting forecasts based on these powerful new techniques. The book develops the general principles that underlie qualitative choice models that are now being applied in numerous fields in addition to transportation, such as housing, labor, energy, communications, and criminology. The general form, derivation, and estimation of qualitative choice models are explained, and the major models - logit, probit, and GEV - are discussed in detail. And continuous/discrete models are introduced. In these, qualitative choice methods and standard regression techniques are combined to analyze situations that neither alone can accurately forecast. Summarizing previous research on auto demand, the book shows how qualitative choice methods can be used by applying them to specific auto-related decisions as the aggregate of individuals' choices. The simulation model that is constructed is a significant improvement over older models, and should prove more useful to agencies and organizations requiring accurate forecasting of auto demand and use for planning and policy development. The book concludes with an actual case study based on a model designed for the investigations of the California Energy Commission. Kenneth Train is Visiting Associate Professor in Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and Director of Economic Research at Cambridge Systematics, Inc., also in Berkeley. Qualitative Choice Analysis is included in The MIT Press Transportation Studies Series, edited by Marvin L. Manheim. front......Page 1 ch1......Page 15 ch2......Page 28 ch3......Page 68 ch4......Page 78 ch5......Page 90 ch6......Page 111 ch7......Page 121 ch8......Page 145 ch9......Page 182 ap_a......Page 203 ap_b......Page 214 ap_c......Page 229 ap_d......Page 233 notes......Page 245 ref......Page 252 index......Page 257 In recent years the emphasis in econometrics has shifted from aggregate models that describe markets as a whole to disaggregate models of the individual decisionmaking units that underlie market demand and supply. Kenneth Train. Includes Index. Bibliography: P. [243]-247.