Putin's War in Syria : Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America's Absence

"Skillfully lays out Mr. Putin's approach to the Middle East." Wall Street Journal "Detailed and fascinating." Diplomatic Courier Putin intervened in Syria in September 2015, with international critics predicting that Russia would overextend itself and Barack Obama suggesting the country would find itself in a "quagmire" in Syria. Contrary to this, Anna Borshchevskaya argues that in fact Putin achieved significant key domestic and foreign policy objectives without crippling costs, and is well-positioned to direct Syria's future and become a leading power in the Middle East. This outcome has serious implications for Western foreign policy interests both in the Middle East and beyond. This book places Russian intervention in Syria in this broader context, exploring Putin's overall approach to the Middle East – historically Moscow has a special relationship with Damascus – and traces the political, diplomatic, military and domestic aspects of this intervention. Borshchevskaya delves into the Russian military campaign, public opinion within Russia, as well as Russian diplomatic tactics at the United Nations. Crucially, this book illustrates the impact of Western absence in Syria, particularly US absence, and what the role of the West is, and could be, in the Middle East. Cover page 1 Halftitle page 2 Title page 4 Copyright page 5 Contents 6 Preface and Acknowledgments 9 Introduction 12 Another Afghanistan? 13 A Failure of Imagination 14 Part One Russia and the Middle East 16 1 Tsarist Russia’s History in the Middle East and North Africa 18 Russia’s Identity, Fears, and Early Links to the Middle East 18 Tsarist Russia, Muslims, and the Middle East 21 2 The Soviet Union in the Middle East and the Afghanistan Intervention 28 The Soviet Union’s Approach the Middle East 28 The Invasion of Afghanistan 33 The Costs and Ultimate Withdrawal 36 3 Russia in the 1990s 40 The Middle East and Primakov’s Multipolar World 43 4 Putin Returns Russia to the Middle East 52 The Second Chechen War 52 Putin’s Foreign Policy 55 Return to the Middle East: A Pragmatic Approach 59 5 The Russia-Iran-Syria Triangle 64 Iran 64 Pragmatic Cooperation 64 Iran’s Nuclear Program and Moscow’s Interests 67 The Syria Factor 71 The Iran Factor in the Russia–Syria Relationship 74 Part Two Putin’s Syria Intervention 78 6 The Military Campaign 80 A2AD Laydown and Broader Deterrence of the West 83 The Campaign 86 What did Moscow Gain? 91 Arms Sales and Military Training 93 Use of PMCs 96 7 The Domestic Campaign 100 The Announcement 100 The Public Message 103 Public Reactions 108 Public Opinion Polls 111 8 Diplomatic Efforts 116 The First Veto 116 2012: Geneva Communiqué, Peace Talks, and the Red Line 119 Chemical Weapons: An Opening for Moscow 123 9 Diplomacy with Military Action 130 Syrian Chechenization? 133 10 Moscow’s Relationships with Regional Actors: Israel 138 Putin’s Early Pursuit of Good Ties with Israel 138 The Shia Factor in Russian–Israeli Relations 142 Soft-Power Projection 146 Points of Friction 148 11 Moscow’s Relationships with Sunni Actors, Iran, and Assad 152 Turkey 152 Russia–Turkey Relations Prior to the Syria Intervention 152 The First Years of Syria Intervention 154 The Kurdish Factor 155 Putin Leverages Erdogan 157 Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Qatar 160 Iran 162 Influence over Assad? 165 12 Russia and Syria’s Resources 168 Russia–Syria Trade Prior to the War 168 Syria’s Energy Resources and Overall Strategic Location 169 The War and Moscow’s Assistance to Assad 171 Securing Access to Resources 173 Conclusion 178 Appendix: TIV of Arms Exports from Russia, 1981–2018 188 Notes 192 Index 244 "Putin intervened in Syria in September 2015, with international critics predicting that Russia would overextend itself and Barack Obama suggesting the country would find itself in a "quagmire" in Syria. Contrary to this, Anna Borshchevskaya argues that in fact Putin achieved significant key domestic and foreign policy objectives without crippling costs, and is well-positioned to direct Syria's future and become a leading power in the Middle East. This outcome has serious implications for Western foreign policy interests both in the Middle East and beyond. This book places Russian intervention in Syria in this broader context, exploring Putin's overall approach to the Middle East - historically Moscow has a special relationship with Damascus - and traces the political, diplomatic, military and domestic aspects of this intervention. Borshchevskaya delves into the Russian military campaign, public opinion within Russia, as well as Russian diplomatic tactics at the United Nations. Crucially, this book illustrates the impact of Western absence in Syria, particularly US absence, and what the role of the West is, and could be, in the Middle East."-- Provided by publisher