Pushing the agenda : presidential leadership in U.S. lawmaking, 1953-2004

Today's presidents enter office having campaigned on an ambitious policy agenda, eager to see it enacted, and willing to push so that it is. The central question of presidents' legislative leadership, therefore, is not a question of resolve, it is a question of strategy: by what means can presidents build winning coalitions for their agenda? Pushing the Agenda uncovers the answer. It reveals the predictable nature of presidents' policy making opportunities and the systematic strategies White House officials employ to exploit those opportunities. Drawing on an eclectic array of original evidence - spanning presidents from Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush and issues ranging from education to energy, and healthcare to taxes - Matthew N. Beckmann finds modern presidents' influence in Congress is real, often substantial, and - to date - largely underestimated. Half-title 3 Title 5 Copyright 6 Contents 7 Figures 9 Tables 11 Acknowledgments 13 Chapter one Introduction 17 1.1 NEVER EASY 19 1.1.1 Constitutional Constraints 20 1.1.2 Partisan (and Preference) Constraints 22 1.1.3 Contextual Constraints 24 1.1.3.1 Historical context 26 1.1.3.2 Political context 27 1.1.3.3 “Real-world” context 29 1.2 PRESIDENTIAL SKILL, STRATEGY, AND SUCCESS 29 1.2.1 Beyond “Skill” 30 1.2.2 The Strategies of Presidential Influence 32 1.2.2.1 Presidential agenda setting 33 1.2.2.2 Presidential lobbying 36 1.2.3 The Keys to Success (or Locks on Failure) 38 1.2.3.1 The status quo 38 1.2.3.2 Supportive leaders’ preferences 39 1.2.3.3 Opposing leaders’ preferences 39 1.2.3.4 Pivotal voters’ preferences 39 1.2.3.5 The president’s political capital 40 1.3 GOING FORWARD 40 Chapter two A Theory of Positive Presidential Power 43 2.1 THE BASIC POLICYMAKING GAME 46 2.1.1 The Legislative Endgame (Voting) 47 2.1.2 The Legislative Earlygame (Agenda Setting) 51 2.1.2.1 The president’s proposal 52 2.1.2.2 The supportive leader’s proposal 53 2.1.2.3 The opposing leader’s proposal 55 2.1.3 A Note on Divided Government 56 2.1.3.1 Majority party leaders: negative agenda control 57 2.1.3.2 Majority party leaders: positive agenda control 58 2.2 THE STRATEGIES OF PRESIDENTIAL INFLUENCE 60 2.2.1 The Endgame Strategy (Vote-Centered Lobbying) 62 2.2.1.1 The logic of vote-centered lobbying 63 2.2.1.2 The consequences of vote-centered lobbying 65 2.2.2 The Earlygame Strategy (Agenda-Centered Lobbying) 66 2.2.2.1 The logic of agenda-centered lobbying 69 2.2.2.1.1 Mobilizing leading allies 70 2.2.2.1.2 Deterring leading opponents 71 2.2.2.2 The consequences of agenda-centered lobbying 74 2.3 THE CONTOURS OF PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP IN LAWMAKING 78 2.3.1 External Factors Affecting Presidential Success or Failure 78 2.3.2 Internal Factors Affecting Presidential Success 79 2.4 EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS 81 2.5 CONCLUSION 82 Chapter three Case Study: Pushing President Bush’s 2001 Tax Cut 84 3.1 THEORETICAL TENETS OF TAX CUTS IN THE 107TH CONGRESS 85 3.1.1 The Status Quo 88 3.1.2 Supportive Leaders’ Preferences 89 3.1.3 Opposing Leaders’ Preferences 91 3.1.4 Pivotal Voters’ Preferences 92 3.2 PRESIDENT BUSH’S TAX CUT STRATEGY 96 3.2.1 Vote-Centered Lobbying (the Endgame Strategy) 96 3.2.2 Agenda-Centered Lobbying (The Earlygame Strategy) 97 3.2.2.1 Mobilizing leading allies 97 3.2.2.2 Deterring leading opponents 98 3.3 TESTING THE WHITE HOUSE’S LOBBYING OPERATION 99 3.3.1 The Senate 101 3.3.2 The Sample 102 3.3.3 The Measures 103 3.3.3.1 Measuring White House lobbying: quantity 104 3.3.3.2 Measuring White House lobbying: quality 105 3.3.3.3 Measuring White House lobbying: “going public.” 107 3.4 THE PATTERNS OF PRESIDENTIAL LOBBYING 108 3.4.1 Testing White House Lobbying: Quantity 111 3.4.2 Testing White House Lobbying: Quality 113 3.4.3 Testing White House Lobbying: “Going Public” 115 3.5 ASSESSING THE OUTCOME 117 3.6 CONCLUSION 120 Chapter four Winning Key Votes, 1953–2004 122 4.1 INCORPORATING THE EARLYGAME 124 4.2 THE (UNRELENTING) PRESIDENTIAL PUSH 126 4.3 REACHING AND WINNING KEY VOTES 129 4.3.1 A Multiple Regression Test 131 4.3.1.1 Endgame variables 131 4.3.1.2 Earlygame variables 132 4.3.1.3 Results 133 4.4 CONCLUSION 141 Chapter five Signing New Laws, 1953–2004 144 5.1 THE PATTERNS OF PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESS 145 5.2 PUSHING LEGISLATION, PASSING LAWS 149 5.2.1 Presidential Lobbying and Legislative Success 149 5.2.2 Presidential Lobbying and Legislative Success on the Most Salient Issues 153 5.3 TESTING PRESIDENTS’ INFLUENCE ON LEGISLATIVE OUTCOMES, 1953–2004 154 5.3.1 A Multiple (Probit) Regression Test 155 5.3.2 Conditional Success 159 5.3.3 Individual Differences? 161 5.4 CONCLUSION 163 Chapter six The Practice and Potential of Presidential Leadership 166 6.1 THE PRACTICE OF PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP 167 6.1.1 Prioritizing Problems 168 6.1.2 Drafting Policies 170 6.1.3 Devising Strategy 172 6.1.4 Executing 174 6.2 PRINCIPLE VERSUS PRAGMATISM 175 6.3 BIGGER THAN WINNING 177 Appendix Archival Study Technical Details 179 A.1 RESEARCH DESIGN 179 A.1.1 Dependent Variables 183 A.1.1.1 Winning key votes 183 A.1.1.2 Passing preferred laws 187 A.1.1.3 Accounting for the earlygame and endgame 188 A.1.2 Independent Variable 189 A.1.3 Control Variables 189 A.1.3.1 Congressional predispositions 189 A.1.3.2 Political environment 190 A.1.3.3 Issue specifics 191 References 193 Index 203 0521760143,9780521760140,0521162912,978-0521162913 Today's Presidents Enter Office Having Campaigned On An Ambitious Policy Agenda, Eager To See It Enacted, And Willing To Push So That It Is. The Central Question Of Presidents' Legislative Leadership, Therefore, Is Not A Question Of Resolve But A Question Of Strategy: By What Means Can Presidents Build Winning Coalitions For Their Agenda? Pushing The Agenda Uncovers The Answer. It Reveals The Systematic Strategies President's Employ To Influence Congress And The Conditions That Determine When Those Strategies Work - Or Don't. Drawing On An Eclectic Array Of Original Evidence - Spanning Presidents From Dwight Eisenhower To George W. Bush - Matthew N. Beckmann Finds That Modern Presidents' Influence In Congress Is Real, Often Substantial, And, To Date, Largely Underestimated.--jacket. Introduction -- A Theory Of Positive Presidential Power -- Case Study : Pushing President Bush's 2001 Tax Cut -- Winning Key Votes, 1953--2004 -- Signing New Laws, 1953--2004 -- The Practice And Potential Of Presidential Leadership. Matthew N. Beckmann. Includes Bibliographical References And Index.

today's Presidents Enter Office Having Campaigned On An Ambitious Policy Agenda, Eager To See It Enacted, And Willing To Push So That It Is. The Central Question Of Presidents' Legislative Leadership, Therefore, Is Not A Question Of Resolve; It Is A Question Of Strategy: By What Means Can Presidents Build Winning Coalitions For Their Agenda? Pushing The Agenda Uncovers The Answer. It Reveals The Systematic Strategies Presidents Employ To Influence Congress And The Conditions That Determine When Those Strategies Work—or Don't. Drawing On An Eclectic Array Of Original Evidence—spanning Presidents From Dwight Eisenhower To George W. Bush—matthew N. Beckmann Finds Modern Presidents' Influence In Congress Is Real, Often Substantial, And, To Date, Largely Underestimated.

Today's presidents enter office having campaigned on an ambitious policy agenda, eager to see it enacted, and willing to push so that it is. The central question of presidents' legislative leadership, therefore, is not a question of resolve; it is a question of strategy: by what means can presidents build winning coalitions for their agenda? Pushing the Agenda uncovers the answer. It reveals the systematic strategies presidents employ to influence Congress and the conditions that determine when those strategies work - or don't. Drawing on an eclectic array of original evidence - spanning presidents from Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush - Matthew N. Beckmann finds modern presidents' influence in Congress is real, often substantial, and, to date, largely underestimated. Introduction A theory of positive presidential power Case study : pushing President Bush's 2001 tax cut Winning key votes, 1953 2004 Signing new laws, 1953 2004 The practice and potential of presidential leadership.