Probability and Bayesian Statistics

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics and stochastic processes, to real applications in economics, reliability and hydrology. Also the question is raised if it is necessary to develop new techniques to model and analyze fuzzy observations in samples. The articles are arranged in alphabetical order according to the family name of the first author of each paper to avoid a hierarchical ordering of importance of the different topics. Readers interested in special topics can use the index at the end of the book as guide. Front Matter....Pages i-xii Stochastic Linear Programming with Recourse under Partial Information....Pages 1-6 Applied GEWR(n,p,q) Normal Discount Bayesian Model: An Austrian Economic Case Study....Pages 7-16 Using Influence Diagrams to Solve a Calibration Problem....Pages 17-30 Reliability of a Complex System from Bayesian Viewpoint....Pages 31-38 Information in Selection Models....Pages 39-51 Approximations in Statistics from a Decision-Theoretical Viewpoint....Pages 53-60 Restricted Bayes Estimates for Binomial Parameters....Pages 61-72 Bayesian Prevision of Time Series by Transfer Function Models....Pages 73-82 Priors for Exponential Families Which Maximize the Association between Past and Future Observations....Pages 83-95 Calibrating and Combining Precipitation Probability Forecasts....Pages 97-110 Coherent Distributions and Lindley’s Paradox....Pages 111-120 Mean Variance, Expected Utility and Ruin Probability in Reinsurance Decisions: Suggestions and Comments on the Line of De Finetti’s Seminal Work....Pages 121-128 A Product of Multivariate T Densities as Upper Bound for the Posterior Kernel of Simultaneous Equation Model Parameters....Pages 129-138 A Common Model Selection Criterion....Pages 139-150 Predictive Screening Methods in Binary Response Models....Pages 151-158 De Finetti’s Probabilistic Approach and the Theory of Expectations in Economics....Pages 159-168 Some Characteristics of Bayesian Designs....Pages 169-174 The Analysis of Multiple Choice Tests in Educational Assessment....Pages 175-182 Dynamic Inference on Survival Functions....Pages 183-192 The Role of Probability and Statistics in Physics....Pages 193-201 Can we Build a Subjectivist Statistical Package?....Pages 203-217 Life Time Distributions and Stochastic Dynamical Systems....Pages 219-224 Calibration of a Radiation Detector: Chromosome Dosimetry for Neutrons....Pages 225-232 On Some Bayes and Empirical Bayes Selection Procedures....Pages 233-246 Bayesian Aspects in the Theory of Comparison of Statistical Experiments....Pages 247-256 Maximal Semigroups and the Support Of Gauss — Semigroups....Pages 257-262 Sufficiency Completeness Principle....Pages 263-266 On the Interpretation of Hypothesis Tests following Neyman and Pearson....Pages 267-277 De Finetti’s Methods of Elicitation....Pages 279-284 Bayesian Estimation of Design Floods under Regional and Subjective Prior Information....Pages 285-294 Bayesian Methods in Multiperiod Financial Decision Making....Pages 295-303 Cognitive Representation of Incomplete Knowledge....Pages 305-320 Comparison of Some Statistical Methods for Counting Process Observations....Pages 321-334 Bayes Inference in Life Tests When Samples Sizes are Fixed or Random....Pages 335-345 On Cox’s Confidence Distribution....Pages 347-356 A Bayesian Analysis of a Generalized Slope Ratio Bioassay....Pages 357-364 On Absolute Continuity of Measures Due to Gaussian Locally Stationary Processes....Pages 365-368 Bayesian Adaptive Decision Theory Versus Dynamic Games as Models for Economic Planning and Policy-Making under Uncertainty....Pages 369-377 Remarks on Foundations of Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics....Pages 379-393 Hpd-Regions for the Linear Regression Model....Pages 395-402 A Very General De Finetti-Type Theorem....Pages 403-413 A Bayesian Approach to Estimating the Parameters of a Hydrological Forecasting System....Pages 415-421 The Extended Bayes-Postulate, Its Potential Effect on Statistical Methods and Some Historical Aspects....Pages 423-430 The Analysis of Weibull Lifetime Data Incorporating Expert Opinion....Pages 431-442 Robust Tests for Trend in Binomial Proportions....Pages 443-454 Decomposition of Weibull Mixture-Distributions in Accelerated Life Testing by Bayesian Methods....Pages 455-461 Robust Bayesian Methods....Pages 463-470 Is it Necessary to Develop a Fuzzy Bayesian Inference ?....Pages 471-475 A Predictive Density Criterion for Selecting Non-Nested Linear Models and Comparison with Other Criteria....Pages 477-486 Bayesian Models and Methods for Binary Time Series....Pages 487-495 Semi-Sufficiency in Accelerated Life Testing....Pages 497-503 Back Matter....Pages 505-510