Probabilistic Risk Analysis (Foundations and Methods)

Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations in situations where classical statistical analysis is difficult or impossible. This book discusses the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgment and uncertainty propagation. Frontmatter......Page 1 Contents......Page 5 Illustrations......Page 13 Tables......Page 16 Preface......Page 19 Part I - Introduction......Page 21 1 - Probabilistic risk analysis......Page 23 Part II - Theoretical issues and background......Page 35 2 - What is uncertainty?......Page 37 3 - Probabilistic methods......Page 59 4 - Statistical inference......Page 81 5 - Weibull Analysis......Page 103 Part III - System analysis and quantification......Page 117 6 - Fault and event trees......Page 119 7 - Fault trees â•fi analysis......Page 141 8 - Dependent failures......Page 160 9 - Reliability data bases......Page 173 10 - Expert opinion......Page 211 11 - Human reliability......Page 238 12 - Software reliability......Page 260 Part IV - Uncertainty modeling and risk measurement......Page 277 13 - Decision theory......Page 279 14 - Influence diagrams and belief nets......Page 306 15 - Project risk management......Page 319 16 - Probabilistic inversion techniques for uncertainty analysis......Page 336 17 - Uncertainty analysis......Page 346 18 - Risk measurement and regulation......Page 370 Bibliography......Page 393 Index......Page 410 "Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed."--Publisher's description Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), also called quantitative risk analysis (QRA) or probabilistic safety analysis (PSA), is currently being widely applied to many sectors, including transport, construction, energy, chemical processing, aerospace, the military, and even to project planning and financial management. Focusing on the conceptual & mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation & management of risk, this book covers standard topics as well as important new subjects, such as the use of expert judgement & uncertainty propagation