Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems : Proceedings of the First International Symposium, Toronto, Canada, 11–13 July 1986

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems contains the proceedings of the First International Symposium held in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, on July 11-13, 1986. The papers explore significant technical advances that have been made in the application of probability methods to the design of electric power systems. This volume is comprised of 65 chapters divided into 10 sections and begins by discussing the probabilistic methodologies used in the assessment of power system reliability and structural design. The following chapters focus on the applications of probabilistic techniques to the analysis and design of transmission systems and structures; evaluation of design and reliability of distribution systems; system planning; and assessment of performance of transmission system components such as insulators, tower joints, and foundations. The probability-based procedures for dealing with data bases such as wind load and ice load are also considered, along with the effects of weather-induced loads on overhead power lines and the use of probability methods in upgrading existing power lines and components. The final section deals with applications of probability methods to power system problems not covered in other chapters. This book will be of value to engineers involved in uprating, designing, analyzing, and assessing reliability of transmission and distribution systems. Content: Pergamon Titles of Related Interest , Page ii Front Matter , Page iii Copyright , Page iv Preface , Page xi , S. (Samy) Krlshnasamy Organizing Committee , Page xii Probabilistic Methodologies Used in the Assessment of Power System Reliability Evaluation , Pages 3-18 , R. BILLINTON, R.N. ALLAN Probabilistic Methods in Structural Design and Analysis , Pages 19-29 , C.A. CORNELL Probabilistic Optimization of Transmission Line Design , Pages 33-40 , J.S. BARRETT Structural Reliability Analysis of a Transmission Tower Using Probabilistic Finite Element Method , Pages 41-51 , A.K. HALDAR On the Probabilistic Collapse Analysis of Transmission Line Structures , Pages 53-64 , Y. MUROTSU, H. OKADA, S. MATSUZAKI, S. NAKAMURA Load and Resistance Factors for Structural Components , Pages 65-72 , B.M. AYYUB, G.J. WHITE Reliability of Ontario Hydro's 500 kV Narrow Base Transmission Structures , Pages 73-88 , A.P. GOEL Practical Code Formats for Reliability Based Design of Transmission Structures , Pages 89-100 , A.H. PEYROT, J.D. MOZER, A.M. DIGIOIA JR., J.C. POHLMAN A Censoring Technique in the Monte Carlo Simulation Method Applied to Probability Based Distribution Line Wood Pole Design , Pages 101-108 , A. KAMARUDIN Probability Based Line Design A Draft Proposal for 230 kV and Above for the Canadian Standards Association , Pages 109-114 , C.I. ORDE, H.B. WHITE Probabilistic Assessment and Design of Transmission Line Towers , Pages 115-123 , P.Y. WANG, M. AMIN, S.J. FANG, T.M. SEKILI Reliability Based Design of Transmission Lines According to Recent Advances by IEC and CIGRE , Pages 125-142 , E. GHANNOUM, G. ORAWSKI An Introduction to the EPRI Reliability-based Design Guide , Pages 143-156 , M.E. CRISWELL, M.D. VANDERBILT The NESC, Probability, Reliability and the Future , Pages 157-163 , F.G. PICCIANO Probability Based Design of Wood Pole Distribution Lines , Pages 167-175 , S.G. KRISHNASAMY, M.S. NASHID, C.B. XOURAFAS Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Techniques to Distribution System Considerations , Pages 177-184 , R.A. KRAMER Evaluation of Urban Distribution Systems Reliability , Pages 185-193 , J. VILAR P., M. VEGA O. Prediction of Distribution Line Service Reliability by Probability Methods , Pages 195-202 , C.B. XOURAFAS, S.G. KRISHNASAMY Statistical Analysis of Power Systems Using the Adjoint and Monte-Carlo Methods , Pages 203-212 , S.L. CRESS Probabilistic Transmission Planning Procedures Within the CEGB , Pages 215-222 , S.J. ARGENT, D.P.G. HADFIELD A General Purpose Computer Program for the Reliability Analysis and Design of Structural Line Components , Pages 223-230 , A.H. PEYROT, H.J. DAGHER Brazilian Experience on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Network Planning: BRAZILIAN POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY WORKING GROUP (SGC) , Pages 231-241 , J.C.G. PRACA, M.TH. SCHILLING Computer Experiments with System Reliability Methods: A Critical Study , Pages 243-250 , D.M. FRANGOPOL, R. NAKIB Probabilistic Analysis of Dynamic Short-circuit Stresses of Rigid Bus-bars and Support Insulators Considering Reclosure , Pages 251-257 , E. MITKOWSKI, R. PASZYLK, R. FRACKOWIAK EDF Probabilistic Approach in Transmission Planning Studies: Concepts and Computation Tools for a Better Assessment of Reliability and Security of an EHV Transmission Power System , Pages 259-266 , J. BATUT Modelling Requirements for Bulk Power System Reliability Evaluation , Pages 267-280 , B. PORRETTA Extensions of Large Deviation Technique to Power System Reliability Applications , Pages 281-289 , C.K. YIN, M. MAZUMDAR Contingency Simulation and Ranking Techniques for Power System Reliability Evaluation , Pages 291-300 , N.K. SINHA, M.A. EL-KADY, M.S. EL-SOBKI Multi-area Reliability Evaluation via a Demand–Supply Feasibility Theorem , Pages 301-308 , F.N. LEE Characterization of the Aging of Thermal Generators for Reliability Assessment , Pages 309-318 , M.TH. SCHILLING, J.C.G. PRACA, J.F. DE QUEIROZ, C. SINGH, H. ASCHER Three State Component Representation for Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems , Pages 319-326 , J.A. BUZACOTT, G.J. ANDERS Probabilistic Design Methods as Applied to High Capacity Grouted Anchors , Pages 329-338 , E. STEMSHORN Observations on the Variability of Undrained Side Resistance for Deep Foundations , Pages 339-345 , M.J. SPRY, M.D. GRIGORIU, F.H. KULHAWY, C.H. TRAUTMANN Uplift Design of Transmission Tower Foundations in Sand: A Probabilistic Approach , Pages 347-356 , C.B.H. CRAGG, S.G. KRISHNASAMY, H.S. RADHAKRISHNA Buckling Strength Prediction Equation for Angles. Probabilistic Approach , Pages 357-364 , O.H. BASILIO A Stochastic Method of Assessing the Effect of Joint Deformation on Bolted Lattice Towers , Pages 365-373 , D.C.J. WILLIAMS, I.W. BRIGHTWELL The EPRI Transmission Line Mechanical Research Facility Lattice Tower Database , Pages 375-384 , D.D. CANNON JR., E.B. PEWITT Predicting Static Fatigue Strength of Non-ceramic Suspension Insulators Using Cumulative Damage and Accelerated Life Testing , Pages 385-390 , C. EK Wind Load Data for Reliability Based Transmission Line Design , Pages 393-397 , H.S. NORVILLE, K.C. MEHTA, W.P. VANN Wind Direction and Extreme Wind Loads for Overhead Power Line Design , Pages 399-412 , S.G. KRISHNASAMY, N. RAMANI Data Collection for the Bonneville Power Administration Project on Wind Loading of Transmission Conductors , Pages 413-420 , H.W. VOLPE Process for Determination of the Wind Load Used in Design of Transmission Tower in Japan and Problems Involved , Pages 421-429 , Y. SAKAMOTO, H. YAMAGISHI, M. NAGANO Data Uncertainty: Evaluation, Control, and Impact , Pages 431-439 , R.A. LEMASTER Survival Prediction for Wood Pole Utility Structures , Pages 441-450 , J.R. GOODMAN, J. BODIG A Probabilistic and Statistical Approach for Hardware Testing , Pages 451-460 , J.E. BEATTIE, R.K. CHAN Estimation of Extreme Wind Speeds from Short Wind Records , Pages 461-468 , M. GRIGORIU, S.G. KRISHNASAMY, V.J. LONGO Probabilistic Considerations in Transmission Line Wind Design for Mexico , Pages 471-483 , J.E. AGUIRRE, J. SANCHEZ-SESMA A Stochastic Model for Wind Induced Vibrations and Damage Accumulation in the Cables of Overhead Transmission Lines , Pages 485-494 , J.T. SCHMIDT, P.B. HAGEDORN Electrical Transmission Structure Response to Wind , Pages 495-502 , K.C. MEHTA, H.S. NORVILLE, L. KEMPNER JR. Clearances for Galloping on Overhead Lines , Pages 503-512 , D.G. HAVARD, C.J. PON, G.S. WATT A Probabilistic Approach for Optimal Location of Bundled Conductor Spacers to Minimize Damage from Aeolian Vibration , Pages 513-520 , R.K. CHAN, P.R. UKRAINETZ, D.R. NAGEL Application of Probability Techniques to Transmission Line Uprating , Pages 523-534 , S.G. KRISHNASAMY, N. RAMANI, J.P. BAYNE The Use of Probability Techniques in the Design and Uprating of Transmission Lines in Hydro-Quebec , Pages 535-547 , é. GHANNOUM, B. FéLIN, L. BINETTE, P. OUELLET, B. MANOUKIAN Costs and Benefits of Probabilistic Approach to the Uprating of 110 kV Substations with Excessive Fault Currents , Pages 549-557 , J. POPCZYK, A. BLASZCZYK Probability Methods for Calculating the Current Capacity of Overhead Transmission Lines , Pages 559-566 , V.T. MORGAN Probabilistic Short-circuit Uprating of Station Strain Bus System—Overview, Application and Risk Assessment , Pages 567-579 , M.D. GERMANI, M. VAINBERG, G.L. FORD, M.A. EL-KADY, R.W.D. GANTON Application of Probabilistic Methods of Increasing Short-circuit Stress for Selected Plants of the Transmission of Power , Pages 581-588 , G. STEGEMANN, F. BERGER Calibration of 46—kV and 115—kV Wood REA Stuctures in Southern Alabama to Reliability-based Design Techniques , Pages 591-602 , R.C. PETERS, S.C. POWELL, L. HILBURN Reliability Calibration of the NESC Rules for the Structural Design of Transmission Lines , Pages 603-611 , H.J. DAGHER Effect of Wind on the Minimum Flashover Voltage of Iced Insulators in Foul Weather , Pages 615-623 , N. SUGAWARA, M. FARZANEH, J.L. LAFORTE A New Method for the Steady-state Solution of Complex Markov Systems , Pages 625-631 , M. SCHWARZBLAT, J. ARELLANO Statistical Models for Lightning Intensity and Their Application to Prediction of Transmission Lightning Outage Rates , Pages 633-640 , W.A. CHISHOLM, W. JANISCHEWSKYJ, P.-Y. GUILLO, D. ANDREWS STATISTICAL MODELS FOR LIGHTNING INTENSITY AND THEIR APPLICATION TO PREDICTION OF TRANSMISSION LIGHTNING OUTAGE RATES , Page 641 , Chisholm, Janischewskyj, Guillo, Andrews Probabilistic Techniques in Load Flow Analysis — A Practical Application , Pages 643-651 , A.M. LEITE DA SILVA, V.L. ARIENTI, M.H. BARBOSA Probabilistic Analysis Techniques Used to Examine Ground Clearance for the Pacific Northwest DC Intertie Upgrade , Pages 653-663 , J.L. REDING Subject Index , Pages 665-666