Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (30))

__Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and____Practitioners__ summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary. Front Matter....Pages i-xii Introduction....Pages 1-12 Front Matter....Pages 13-14 Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions....Pages 15-30 Front Matter....Pages 31-32 Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data....Pages 33-56 Front Matter....Pages 57-58 Improving Judgment in Forecasting....Pages 59-80 Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts....Pages 81-106 Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation....Pages 107-123 Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique....Pages 125-144 Front Matter....Pages 145-146 Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis....Pages 147-167 Front Matter....Pages 169-170 Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting....Pages 171-192 Front Matter....Pages 193-194 Forecasting Analogous Time Series....Pages 195-213 Front Matter....Pages 215-216 Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data....Pages 217-243 Neural Networks for Time-Series Forecasting....Pages 245-256 Front Matter....Pages 257-258 Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation....Pages 259-282 Front Matter....Pages 283-283 Expert Systems for Forecasting....Pages 285-300 Front Matter....Pages 301-302 Econometric Forecasting....Pages 303-362 Front Matter....Pages 363-363 Selecting Forecasting Methods....Pages 365-386 Front Matter....Pages 387-388 Judgmental Time-Series Forecasting Using Domain Knowledge....Pages 389-403 Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts....Pages 405-416 Combining Forecasts....Pages 417-439 Front Matter....Pages 441-441 Evaluating Forecasting Methods....Pages 443-472 Front Matter....Pages 473-473 Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting....Pages 475-494 Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting....Pages 495-515 Front Matter....Pages 517-517 Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts....Pages 519-540 Front Matter....Pages 541-541 Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity....Pages 543-554 Front Matter....Pages 555-556 Population Forecasting....Pages 557-575 Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations: Implications for Time-Series Extrapolation....Pages 577-595 Econometric Models for Forecasting Market Share....Pages 597-611 Forecasting Trial Sales of New Consumer Packaged Goods....Pages 613-630 Front Matter....Pages 631-632 Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Books....Pages 633-649 Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Software....Pages 651-676 Front Matter....Pages 677-677 Standards and Practices for Forecasting....Pages 679-732 Forecasting Standards Checklist....Pages 733-738 Back Matter....Pages 739-849

Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?).
The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

This work summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies, providing guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (how much is this company worth?), marketing (will a new product be successful?), personnel (how can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (what level of inventories should be kept?). The 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods, including judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of "if-then principles", and they summarize evidence on these principles This work summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies, providing guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. The 30 chapters cover various forecsating methods, from judgemental to quantitative This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary The "Introduction" sets the stage for forecasting by explaining its uses and how it relates to planning.