Prediction and perception of natural hazards : proceedings symposium, 22-26 October 1990, Perugia, Italy

This collection of articles provides a unique overview of the state of the science in the prediction of and response to natural disaster events. The uniqueness of this volume is that it comprises more than just the physical science perspective. For each natural hazard included in this text, social scientists have provided research summaries of how public perceptions are related to the actions that are likely to be undertaken when people are confronted with information about the existence of a natural hazard threat. In this book the reader can find a truly international characterization of both hazard perception and prediction. The American and European contributors provide state-of-the-science overviews of empirically-based research knowledge that expands beyond any national boundaries. This approach has resulted in broader understanding of what is currently known about predicting natural hazard events and predicting how those events, or warnings of them, will be responded to by different types of societies. Front Matter....Pages i-xiv Front Matter....Pages 1-1 A Non-Structural Policy for the Mitigation of Flood Effects: The Arno Project....Pages 3-12 The Impact of Structural Damage Due to Hurricanes and the Prospects for Disaster Reduction....Pages 13-21 The Social Dimensions of Warning and the Transition from Folk Wisdom to Laymanship....Pages 23-28 Natural Hazard Predictions and Responses in Very Large Cities....Pages 29-37 The Effect of the Uncertainties in Natural Hazard Prediction on the User Communities....Pages 39-47 Uncertainties in Natural Hazards Prediction and its Effect on User Communities Perception: Soviet Union Case Study....Pages 49-53 Front Matter....Pages 55-55 Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Large Scale Atmospheric Phenomena, Droughts, Tornadoes and Hurricanes....Pages 57-63 Empirical Studies of Public Response to Tornado and Hurricane Warnings in the United States....Pages 65-73 The Role of Technical Hazard and Forecast Information in Preparedness for and Response to the Hurricane Hazard in the United States....Pages 75-81 Front Matter....Pages 83-83 Some Remarks on Scientific Activity of Flood Prediction in Italy....Pages 85-92 Landslides as Polycausal Phenomena....Pages 93-99 Uncertainty in Evaluating Landslide Hazard and Risk....Pages 101-109 The River Danube Flood of 27 March 1988....Pages 111-118 A Summary of the State of the Art in Flash Flood Warning Systems in the United States....Pages 119-124 Spatial Prediction of Landslides....Pages 125-132 Front Matter....Pages 133-133 Earthquake Prediction from the Viewpoint of Earthquake Engineering....Pages 135-142 Communicating Public Earthquake Risk Information....Pages 143-152 Uncertainties in the Estimate of Strong Ground Motion in the Surroundings of a Large Earthquake....Pages 153-158 Risk Area Residents’ Changing Perceptions of Volcano Hazard AT MT. ST. Helens....Pages 159-166 Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Earthquakes....Pages 167-172 Front Matter....Pages 173-173 The Different Worlds of Science and Mass Communication: Implications for Information flow from the Former to the Latter....Pages 175-182 Effective Communication Between the Scientific Community and the Media....Pages 183-191 Ideas for a Global Model of Communication and IDNDR Potential....Pages 193-198 Quantity of Reporting About Hazards: The Case of Naturally Occurring Radon....Pages 199-202 Earthquake Prediction and Information to the Public — a Mexican Perspective....Pages 203-212 Back Matter....Pages 213-213 Proceedings Symposium, October 22--26, 1990, Perugia, Italy