Practical Schedule Risk Analysis

Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level: List of Figures List of Tables Preface Chapter 1 Why Schedule Risk Analysis? Looking Beyond the Critical Path Method Chapter 2 Uncertainty in Activity Durations: Using Probability Distributions Chapter 3 Uncertainty Along a Schedule Path: Using Monte Carlo Simulation Chapter 4 A Good Project Schedule is Needed: Critical Path Method Scheduling 101 Chapter 5 Collecting Risk Data: Exploring Methods and Problems Chapter 6 Where Parallel Paths Merge: Introducing the ‘Merge Bias’ and Risk Criticality Chapter 7 Probabilistic Branching: Analyzing Discrete Risk Events Chapter 8 Using Risks to Drive the Analysis and Prioritize Risks: Introducing the ‘Risk Driver’ Method Chapter 9 Schedule Contingency Plans: Using Conditional Branching Chapter 10 When Activity Durations Move Together: Incorporating Correlation Chapter 11 Risk Management in the Organization: Identifying the Mature Risk Management Culture Appendix 1 The Problem with PERT Index