Power, Perception, and Politics in the Making of Iranian Grand Strategy

"This book explains changes to Iranian grand strategy over the past four decades, and it does so by advancing a multicausal model that unifies the three main paradigms of International Relations (IR) theory. Hence, ideas (constructivism) mediate between the structure of material capabilities (realism) and agents (liberalism) and interact with each to produce, respectively, threat perception and political preferences. Using these two explanatory factors, the author demonstrates how the Islamic Republics grand strategy has systematically varied over time to produce a mix of outcomes that includes balancing, expansionism, bandwagoning, appeasement, engagement and retrenchment. Beyond its theoretical contribution, this book is policy-relevant in that it explains and predicts the external conduct of what is arguably the Middle Easts most consequential actor, with implications reverberating far beyond the region. Academic in conception and rigor, the book is intended not only for specialists and practitioners but appeals to the lay reader interested in the broader Middle East/West Asia, the regions relationship with major powers, and regional conflict dynamics. Dr. Kevjn Lim is Middle East and North Africa principal research analyst, and Iran country risk lead at S&P Global Market Intelligence."-- Page 4 of cover Acknowledgments Contents Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction: The Riddle of Iran’s External Conduct 1.1 What’s Been Written and How This Book Contributes 1.2 The Book’s Layout References 2 Toward a Dynamic-Integrative Model of Grand Strategic Adjustments 2.1 Defining the Domain of Grand Strategy 2.2 Competing IR Theories and Why They Fall Short 2.3 A Theoretical Alternative 2.4 The Dynamic-Integrative Model of Grand Strategic Adjustments 2.5 Research Design and Case Selection References 3 The Theoretical Model in Context 3.1 The Dilemma of Measuring Relative Power 3.2 The Ideational Microfoundations of Threat Perception and Political Preferences National Identity: ‘Iranianness’ National Identity: Shi’a Islam and the Rise of Iran’s Clergy Regime Ideology Role Conception Threat Perceptions Interests as Causal Bridge to Behavior 3.3 The Evolution of Domestic Politics and Preferences The 1980s: Radicals vs. Conservatives The 1990s: Traditional Conservatives, Centrists, and Radicals-Turned-Reformists The 2000s: Neoconservatives, Traditional Conservatives, Centrists, and Reformists The 2010s: Pragmatic vs. Traditional Conservatives 3.4 Grand Strategic Adjustments in Three Orders Soft Expansionism (Influence) Engagement Balancing and Hard Expansionism Subversion Appeasement and Bandwagoning Retrenchment and Diversionary Posturing References 4 After the Big Bang: Revolution, War, and Elusive Victories, 1979–1988 References 5 Sobering Up and Adjusting Course, 1989–1991 5.1 Economic Reconstruction and the Rationalization of Government 5.2 Engagement with the GCC Monarchies, Industrialized States, and Major Powers 5.3 Military Rehabilitation, Modernization, and Indigenization 5.4 Rafsanjani and Permissive Accommodationism References 6 More Looming Threats, 1991–1997 6.1 The Gulf War and Iranian Diplomacy with the GCC and the West 6.2 Fraught Appeasement: The Elusive Détente with Washington 6.3 Ideology and Balancing: Iran’s Opposition to the Middle East Peace Process 6.4 External Balancing Against US Dominance: Russia and China 6.5 In Russia’s Shadow: Forays into Post-Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan (CA/A) 6.6 Rafsanjani and Restrictive Accommodationism References 7 Resurrected Engagement, 1997–2001 7.1 Engagement Through ‘Dialogue Among Civilizations’ 7.2 The Reformist President’s Domestic Battles 7.3 Khatami and Permissive Accommodationism References 8 Ambiguous Embrace, 2001–2005 8.1 Bandwagoning and Appeasement: The Afghanistan and Iraq Wars 8.2 Appeasement Through Nuclear Negotiations with the EU3 8.3 Khatami and Restrictive Accommodationism References 9 Resurgent Revisionism and the Path to Confrontation, 2005–2009 9.1 Nuclear Revisionism and Diversionary Posturing 9.2 Iranian Expansionism in Post-Saddam Iraq 9.3 Soft Power Expansionism in the Global South and the East 9.4 Ahmadinejad and Permissive Revisionism References 10 Precarious Under Pressure, 2009–13 10.1 Nuclear Negotiations: The Challenges of ‘Revisionist’ Appeasement 10.2 ‘Look East’: Internal and External Balancing 10.3 Subversion or Astuce as ‘Para-Balancing’ 10.4 Ahmadinejad and Restrictive Revisionism References 11 Averting One War, Igniting Another, 2013–2017 11.1 Appeasement: Nuclear Negotiationsand the JCPOA 11.2 The Shi’a-Sunni Contestation: Balancing (and Hard Power Expansionism) 11.3 Rouhani’s First Term and Restrictive Accommodationism References 12 Conclusion: Iranian Grand Strategy Between Crusade and Crisis Reference References Index