Populism, Nativism, and Economic Uncertainty: Playing the Blame Game in the 2017 British, French, and German Elections (Europe in Crisis)

"Daigle's, Neulen's, and Hofeman's comparative analysis of the 2017 elections in Germany, Britain, and France puts populism in a broader perspective. The breadth of their public opinion data and the leverage of their comparative design allows them to scrutinize systematically some popular explanations for the rise of right-wing populism. This could hardly be more timely." --Christopher Cochrane, Associate Professor, University of Toronto, Canada "This gem of a book is a high-quality investigation into a pressing phenomenon in economically-advanced democracies: the success of the extreme right in France, Great Britain and Germany." --Delia Dumitrescu, Lecturer in Media and Cultural Politics, University of East Anglia, UK This project offers an in-depth look at the three 2017 elections held in Western Europe: France, Germany, and the UK. With events like Brexit and a general rise in right-wing populism across highly industrialized nations, understanding the underlying causes of increasingly extreme electoral behavior is both valuable and prescient. A highly theoretically-focused and current project, it provides a consistent methodological and analytic approach that uses election study data and primary sources to offer a complete and cogent picture of this complex phenomenon as can only found by examining the attitudes and behaviors of the most powerful of democratic participants: the voters Series Foreword 6 Acknowledgements 8 Praise for Populism, Nativism, and Economic Uncertainty 12 Contents 14 Abbreviations 16 List of Figures 18 List of Tables 19 Chapter 1 Introduction 23 Abstract 23 References 29 Chapter 2 Literature Review 31 Abstract 31 2.1 Introduction 32 2.2 Economic Threat 33 2.3 Nativism 37 2.4 Populism 39 2.5 Conclusion 41 References 41 Chapter 3 Methods 44 Abstract 44 3.1 The CSES, and the BES, GLES, and FES of 2017 45 3.2 The Dependent Variable 46 3.3 The Independent Variables 47 3.4 Modeling Strategy 47 3.5 Hypotheses 49 3.5.1 Poisson Regression: Modeling Anti-immigrant Sentiment 49 3.5.2 Logistic Regression 1: Modeling Right-Wing Vote (Absent Anti-immigrant Sentiment) 49 3.5.3 Logistic Regression 1: Modeling Right-Wing Vote While Controlling for Anti-immigrant Sentiment 50 References 50 Chapter 4 France 2017 51 Abstract 51 4.1 Introduction 52 4.2 Institutional Context and Background to French Elections 52 4.3 2017 French Presidential Election Narrative 54 4.4 Discussion 58 References 64 Chapter 5 Great Britain 2017 66 Abstract 66 5.1 Introduction 67 5.2 The British Institutional Context 67 5.3 Background Narrative to the 2017 UK General Election 69 5.4 Discussion 73 References 80 Chapter 6 Germany 2017 83 Abstract 83 6.1 Introduction 84 6.2 The German Institutional Context 84 6.3 German 2017 Bundestag Election Narrative 86 6.4 Discussion 90 References 95 Chapter 7 Comparing Across the 2017 Elections in Britain, France, and Germany 98 Abstract 98 7.1 Introduction 99 7.2 Anti-immigrant Sentiment Comparison 99 7.3 Right-Wing Vote Comparisons 103 7.4 Discussion and Conclusions 107 Reference 108 Chapter 8 Discussion/Conclusion 109 Abstract 109 8.1 Discussion 109 8.2 Conclusion 117 References 117 Appendix A 119 Appendix B—Comparative Model Estimated First Differences 149 Index 155 Front Matter ....Pages i-xxii Introduction (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 1-8 Literature Review (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 9-21 Methods (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 23-29 France 2017 (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 31-45 Great Britain 2017 (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 47-63 Germany 2017 (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 65-79 Comparing Across the 2017 Elections in Britain, France, and Germany (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 81-91 Discussion/Conclusion (Delton T. Daigle, Joséphine Neulen, Austin Hofeman)....Pages 93-102 Back Matter ....Pages 103-144 This project offers an in-depth look at the three 2017 elections held in Western Europe: France, Germany, and the UK. With events like Brexit and a general rise in right-wing populism across highly industrialized nations, understanding the underlying causes of increasingly extreme electoral behavior is both valuable and prescient. A highly theoretically-focused and current project, it provides a consistent methodological and analytic approach that uses election study data and primary sources to offer a complete and cogent picture of this complex phenomenon as can only be found by examining the attitudes and behaviors of the most powerful of democratic participants: the voters