Political Risk Intelligence for Business Operations in Complex Environments

Macro-level dynamics and modelling are well represented in the mainstream political risk literature. However, not many writings on the subject get their hands dirty in terms of revealing the hard, nuanced and practical work behind knowing what the issues might be for a specific foreign operation in a sensitive or volatile context, and how to plan for them. Political Risk Intelligence for Business Operations in Complex Environments provides international managers, and by extension their organisations, with a foundational understanding of political risk analysis and planning for on-the-ground operations in challenging times and places. This means having a fluid grasp of what political risk means and why it matters in the organisation’s context, and how relevant intelligence can be gathered and analysed to inform decisions and planning towards an operation’s socio-political resilience. The book explains: How and why political risk manifests and the forms it can take Company attitudes and operational attributes as a political risk variable Understanding the operational implications of socio-political dynamics and trends Stakeholder identification and analysis for informed engagement planning Scenario analysis to prepare for long-term contingencies and discontinuities Holistic, intelligence-driven political risk management planning Tactical intelligence exercises to maintain awareness and inform adaptation Intelligence management, collection and quality control Ethical considerations in political risk management Rather than being bound by conventional notions of risk, the book emphasises the dynamic relationship between a foreign operation and its host environment and milieu as a source of both challenges and opportunities to manage them. Concepts, frameworks and practices are rounded out with real-world examples and relevant lessons from the author’s experience as a political risk consultant. Cover Half Title Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Author List of Abbreviations Introduction An Iran Story Objectives Scope: What Focus and Why A Reader’s Guide Part I: Core Concepts Chapter 1: Political Risk As a Field and Practice Definition and Characterisation Three Illustrative Cases AES in Georgia, 1999–2003: Systemic Challenge and Entanglement Sainsbury’s in Egypt, 1999–2001: Political Risk Exacerbated by Cultural Missteps Statoil in Algeria, 2013: Political Risk as Security Risk and as a Surprise Occurrence References Chapter 2: Complex Environments A Sense of Complex The Individual Citizen Analogy A System of Socio-Political Complexity Influences Core System Elements: Political Risk Drivers Governance Social Relations Socio-Economic Development Symptoms: Political Risk Factors Government (Mis-) Behaviour Instability Conflict Chapter 3: Country Operations Characterising Country Operations Origins Phase Sector Mode of Entry An Operation as a Relationship System Socio-Political Stakeholders Socio-Political Profile Assets Exposed to Political Risk People Reputation Control Continuity Company Attitudes as a Political Risk Factor References Chapter 4: Introduction to Intelligence Characterising Intelligence Related Business Practices Business Intelligence Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Formulation Roles and Limits of Intelligence Roles Opportunity Critical Factors Foresight Actors and Interests Warning Risk Threat Limits References Part II: The Baseline Intelligence Exercise Chapter 5: Baseline Intelligence Exercise Overview What, When and Why Design Considerations A Basic Problem Bottom-Up Approach Risk Checklist Approach Operation-Centric Approach Elements and Process Chapter 6: Context and Focus About the Operation The Six Basic Questions Operation Backstory Assets and Dependencies Political Risk Management About the Socio-Political Environment Indicators Snapshot Country Backstory Current System Overview and Scan Cases and Real Experiences Stock-Take and Final Checks Stock-Take Final Checks Chapter 7: Terrain Analysis Factor Analysis Challenge Formulation Challenge Formulation Examples Clean-up and Refinement Final Assessment and Prioritisation Plausibility Assessment Implications Assessment Prioritisation Final Results and Planning Inputs Chapter 8: Stakeholder Analysis Identification and Targeting Clarifying the Units of Analysis Preliminary Operational Profile Identification Frameworks Mind Mapping Identification Matrix Proximity Mapping Stage Mapping Derivation from Terrain Challenges Identification Research: Discerning Real Actors Domains The Concept and Utility of Domains Domain Definition Domain Mapping Town A: The Case of a Dynamic Local Ecosystem Government Domains When Institutions Are Weak Civil Society Domain Segments Business Domains with Political-Business Networks Armed Group/Criminal Domain Stakeholder Investigation Analytical Approach The Path Towards Attitude The Path Towards Influence Potential Stakeholder Responses Supporting Characterisation Stakeholder Investigation Output Example Regime Rival Faction (Military Faction – MF) Who / What Values and Interests Rivalries and Relationships Attitude to the Operation Influence Contingent Change in Influence: Coup Potential Responses to the Operation Under Current Power Structure Preliminary Indications for Engagement Relationship and Linkage Mapping Master Linkage Maps Exploratory Linkage Mapping Sense-Making Attitude-Influence Matrix Insights Key Reasons for Directions of Attitude Summarising the Main Issues Chapter 9: Political Risk Management Planning Target Issues Issue Categories from a Management Perspective Issue Integration and Categorisation Initiative Formulation Initiatives for Core Issues Host Community Friction, West African Highway Case Crony Pressure, MENA IT Consultancy Case Initiatives for Contingent Issues Coup or Coup Attempt, West African Highway Case Local Staff Detention, MENA IT Consultancy Case Initiatives for Routine Issues Ministry of Transport Interference, West African Highway Case Bureaucratic Corruption, MENA IT Consultancy Case Programme Definition Functional Programmes Stakeholder Agendas and Engagement Programmes Strategy Strategy Statement Trade-offs Implementation Structure and Resource Check Timelines Final Testing Chapter 10: Scenario Analysis Scoping Factor Identification and Selection Factor Directions and Links Scenario Formulation Scenario Construction Scenario Development Timelines and Signposts The Unthinkables Scenario Assessment Planning Baseline Intelligence Exercise Conclusions Chapter 11: Supplementary Intelligence Exercises Monitoring Feasibility Assessment Tactical Analysis Conflict Analysis Threat Assessment Conclusions Part III: The Practice of Intelligence Chapter 12: Intelligence Management The Intelligence Cycle: Roles and Workflows Managing an Intelligence Task The What: An Intelligence Case The Who: The Intelligence Case Team Intelligence Reporting Intelligence Process versus Reports Documented Report Formats and Attributes Interactive Reporting Intelligence Dissemination Chapter 13: Intelligence Sources Some Groundwork: Sources and Learning, Source Attributes Contextual and Background Open Sources Mid-Stage Open Sources Fieldwork and Human Sources The Rationale Human Sources Observation Interviews Managing Fieldwork Risks References Chapter 14: Intelligence Quality Pitfalls and Remedies Intelligence Practitioners Intelligence-User Relationship User Organisation References Concluding Thoughts Organisational Considerations The Changing Landscape Questions of Ethics Index "The book helps international managers with a fluid understanding of political risk in on-the-ground operations in complex emerging markets, and how to discern and assess potential socio-political challenges in order to make an operation more resilient and sustainable"-- Provided by publisher