Political Opposition in Authoritarianism: Exit, Voice and Loyalty in Kazakhstan (The Theories, Concepts and Practices of Democracy)

How might political opposition shape regime outcomes over time in an authoritarian system? Most studies on political opposition in authoritarian contexts tend to focus on the agency of the regime over and above that of the political opposition. Using Albert Hirschmans framework of exit, voice and loyalty, this book examines the case of Kazakhstani opposition agency over 30 years to explore the extent to which political opposition in Kazakhstan has shaped the dynamics of authoritarian regime development in the country. What the analysis reveals is that in Kazakhstan the regime has tended to treat formal institutional political opposition as neither a credible nor non-credible threat. Consequently, the Kazakhstani regime has always responded to opposition exit and voice with sanctions and institutional adaption which strengthened the regime in the short to medium term, but left them exposed to spontaneous, grassroots non-institutional opposition in the longer term. This spontaneous grassroots opposition emerged in Kazakhstan as a series of shocks crystalised in the 2011 events in Zhanaozen, the 2016 land protests, the 2019 election protests and the events of qandy qantar (bloody January) in 2022. What this book illustrates is how authoritarian regimes which treat opposition threats ambiguously are likely to end up in a continuous state of instability because the feedback provided by opposition agency disappears leaving the regime susceptible to spontaneous opposition. Rico Isaacs is Professor of International Politics at the University of Lincoln, UK Acknowledgements Contents List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction: Authoritarian Institutions, Regimes and Political Opposition The ‘institutional turn’ as an entry point to opposition Why Opposition? Why Kazakhstan? Exit, Voice and Loyalty—Opposition Agency Argument and Structure of the Work References Part I Opposition Agency and Opposition-Regime Relations in Authoritarianism 2 Defining, Conceptualising and Theorising Opposition-Regime Relations in Authoritarian Regimes Introduction Defining Opposition Conceptualising Opposition in Authoritarian Systems Understanding and Defining Opposition in the Kazakhstani Case Three-Part Typology of Opposition Actors Theorising Regime-Opposition Relations in Authoritarianism The Opposition in Kazakhstan: A Brief Profile Conclusion References 3 Exit, Voice and Loyalty: An Analytical Framework for Opposition Agency in Authoritarian Regimes Exit and Voice Loyalty, Sanctions and Institutional Adaptation An Exit, Voice, Loyalty Opposition-Regime Equilibrium and Mutually Constitutive Cycle of Regime-Opposition Relations Conclusion References Part II Exit, Voice and Loyalty in Kazakhstan 4 The Development of a Personalist-Authoritarianism Regime in Kazakhstan The Birth of Modern Kazakhstan The Genesis of Personalist Authoritarianism in Soviet Kazakhstan The Emergence of Opposition in Kazakhstan Institutional Crisis and Adaptation The Development of a Personalist Authoritarian Regime in Kazakhstan Concluding Remarks References 5 Exit, Voice and Loyalty—Opposition Strategies and Choice from Above in Kazakhstan, 1998–2011 Exit, Voice, Loyalty and Sanctions in Kazakhstan Nodal Point 1: Voice Inside the Regime Nodal Point 2: Exit Regime with Voice Sanctions and Institutional Adaptation and Nodal Point 3 Exit the Political System/Country Conclusion: Feedback Signals and Authoritarian Durability and Instability References 6 Non-oligarchic Public Voice in Kazakhstan from Below, 2011–2022 Introduction Non-institutional Opposition Agency in Kazakhstan: Non-oligarchic Voice 2011 Zhanaozen 2016 Land Protests 2019 Election Protests 2022 Qandy Qantar (Bloody January) Conclusion References 7 Conclusion Opposition in Authoritarian Systems Understanding Opposition-Regime Dynamics in Authoritarian Systems Exit, Voice, Loyalty, Sanctions Authoritarian (In)stability References Glossary Bibliography Index