Political Opportunities for Climate Policy : California, New York, and the Federal Government

Analysis of climate change policies focuses mainly on the prospects for international agreements or how climate policies should be designed. Yet effective domestic climate policies are essential to any global solution, and we know too little about how and why such policies are adopted. Political Opportunities for Climate Policy examines in depth the causes of effective climate policies in the United States, using a statistical analysis of all fifty states and long-term case studies of California, New York, and the federal government. Roger Karapin analyzes twenty-two episodes in which policies were adopted, blocked, or reversed. He shows that actors and events have positively affected climate policy making, despite the constraints presented by political institutions and powerful fossil fuel industries. Climate policy advocates have succeeded when they mobilized vigorously and astutely during windows of opportunity - which opened when events converged to raise both problem awareness and the political commitment to address them. Cover Half-title Title page Copyright information Dedication Table of contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface and Acknowledgments List of Abbreviations 1 Introduction and Overview Why Study State-Level Climate Policies? Why California, New York, and the Federal Government? Questions and Theories Overview and Plan of the Book 2 Climate Policies in the United States Types of Climate Policy U.S. Federal and State-Level Climate Policies Targets and Cross-Sectoral Policies Energy Efficiency Policies Renewable Energy Policies Transportation Policies Industrial and Power Plant Emissions Policies State-Federal Relations on Climate Policy Variation in State Climate Policies California and New York State Climate Policies Targets and Cross-Sectoral Policies California New York Energy Efficiency Policies California New York Renewable Energy Policies California New York Transportation Policies California New York California-New York Comparison Influence on Other States and the Federal Government The Effectiveness of Climate Policies in the United States 3 Theories of Climate Policy Structural Theories Process Theories Windows of Opportunity and Advocacy Coalition Theories Path Dependence Theory Testing the Theories 4 The Structural Theory Applied to the Cases Structural Barriers to Federal Climate Policy The Structural Barriers in California and New York Structural Factors Promoting Climate Policy in California and New York 5 Causes of Climate Policies in the Fifty States The Dependent Variable: The CCES Climate Policy Index The Independent Variables Political Institutions and Structures Socioeconomic Structures Political and Economic Processes Analysis and Method Results from the Structural, Process, and Combined Models Marginal Effects of the Independent Variables Path Analysis Robustness Tests Discussion and Conclusions Institutions, Structures, and Processes Linking the Significant Variables to the Case Studies More Detailed Findings Appendix to Chapter 5 Independent Variables Not Included in the Analysis Variables Excluded Due to Multicollinearity 6 California: Air Pollution and Energy Policy Making (the 1940s to the 1980s) The Public Agenda Smog Events and Mobilization: Air Pollution Policy from the 1940s to the 1960s County Air Pollution Control Districts (1947) State Regulation of Motor Vehicles (1960) CARB and Exemption from Federal Standards (1967-68) The Energy Crisis and Elections: Energy Policies in the 1970s The California Environmental Quality Act (1970) The Warren-Alquist Act (1974) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policies (1976-82) Policy Reversal on Renewable Energy (1983-85) Conclusions 7 California: Climate Policy Making (2000s to the Present) The Public Agenda and the Political Agenda Policies on Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Renewable Energy (2002) Problem Awareness: The Electricity Crisis, Bush, and Climate Change Impacts Political Commitment: Environmental Organizations and Fran Pavley Coalitions, Strategies, and Tactics Policies on Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005-08) Problem Awareness: A Conjuncture of Causes Political Commitment: Arnold Schwarzenegger and Fran Pavley Framing and Coalitions The Failure of Proposition 23 (2010) Conclusions 8 New York State: Energy and Climate Policy Making The Public Agenda and the Political Agenda Smog, Infrastructure Projects, and Protests: Power Plant Siting Laws (1972-75) Blackouts, Energy Shortages, and the Carey Administration: Energy Policies (1975-77) Kyoto, Bush, Pataki, and Coalitions: RGGI and a Renewable Portfolio Standard (2001-05) Democratic Governors and New Federal Opportunities: Accelerated Climate Policies (2008-14) Conclusions New York-California Comparison 9 Federal Government: Energy and Climate Policy Making The Public Agenda and the Political Agenda The Energy Crisis, Congressional Democrats, and Jimmy Carter: Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Policies (1975-78) Falling Fossil Fuel Prices and Ronald Reagan: Energy Policy Reversal (1981-85) Global Warming and George H. W. Bush: Explicit Climate Policy Emerges (1990-92) Bill Clinton and Congressional Resistance: The BTU Tax Proposal (1993) Clinton and Congressional Opposition: The Kyoto Protocol and Voluntary Measures (1995-2000) Kyoto Rejected, George W. Bush, and Congressional Democrats: Stalemate (2001-05) Climate Change, Congressional Democrats, and Barack Obama: Legislative Failure and Regulatory Progress (2009-present) Timing and Mistiming Problem Awareness: A Conjuncture of Causes Political Conditions: Favorable but Unstable Legislative Failure Regulatory Progress Conclusions 10 Conclusions: Political Opportunities for Climate Policy in the United States Structural Explanations Stream Convergence and Windows of Opportunity Convergence and Non-Convergence Elections and Environmental Organizations Focusing Events Interdependence and Coordination of Problem Awareness and Political Commitment Window Duration Advocacy Coalitions, Policy Entrepreneurs, Framing, and Strategic Decisions Path Dependence and Positive Feedback Opportunities for Further Climate Policy Making in the States Federal Opportunities Notes Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Chapter 10 References Index Introduction And Overview -- Climate Policies In The United States -- Theories Of Climate Policy -- The Structural Theory Applied To The Cases -- Causes Of Climate Policies In The Fifty States -- California : Air-pollution And Energy Policy Making (the 1940s To The 1980s) -- California : Climate Policy Making (the 2000s To The Present) -- New York State : Energy And Climate Policy Making -- Federal Government : Energy And Climate Policy Making -- Conclusions : Political Opportunities For Climate Policy In The United States. Roger Karapin, Hunter College And The Graduate Center, City University Of New York. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Introduction and overview -- Climate policies in the United States -- Theories of climate policy -- The structural theory applied to the cases -- Causes of climate policies in the fifty states -- Air-pollution and energy policy making in California (the 1940s to the 1980s) -- Climate policy making in California (the 2000s to the present) -- Energy and climate policy making in New York State -- Energy and climate policy making by the federal government -- Conclusions : political opportunities for climate policy in the United States This book examines the causes of effective climate policies, through a statistical analysis of all fifty states and case studies of California, New York, and the federal government. Despite constraints presented by political institutions and powerful fossil fuel industries, climate policy advocates succeeded by mobilizing vigorously and astutely during windows of opportunity.