Political Communication in Britain : Campaigning, Media and Polling in the 2019 General Election

Political Communication in Britain offers unique insights from various members of the party, media, and polling organizations that contested, reported, and analysed the 2019 British General Election, as well as leading academic experts who have researched the campaign. Following an essay by Sir John Curtice exploring how the critical issue of Brexit influenced the election, the opening part of this volume features insiders discussing their respective parties operations, including their successes and disappointments. This section also includes expert examinations of Boris Johnsons oven ready deal as well as the digital advertising and controversial public relations efforts that helped promote it. The middle part of the book considers the media, with chapters from the BBC, Sky News, and regulator Ofcom, along with analyses of the pro-Conservative press, digital-only plat[1]forms, and the more left-leaning alternative news sites. The closing section of the volume turns to public attitudes, with experts, including leading pollsters, exploring how these contributed to the Conservatives victory. Dedicated chapters also place opinion research in broader context through examining the historical role of the exit poll, and the changing reception and reporting of polls both online and in print. Political Communication in Britain provides readers with an indispensable guide to the 2019 General Election from several of those most intimately involved in the campaign. Dominic Wring is Professor of Political Communication at Loughborough University, UK. Roger Mortimore is Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at Kings College London, UK, and Director of Political Analysis at Ipsos MORI. Simon Atkinson is Chief Knowledge Officer at Ipsos Titles in This Series 5 Preface 6 Contents 8 Notes on Contributors 11 List of Figures 14 List of Tables 16 1 Background to the Campaign: From Confidence and Supply to the Oven-Ready Deal 18 The Long Shadow of Brexit 20 All Change? The Parties’ Prospects 23 Overview of the Book 26 References 30 2 A Brexit Election? 31 Introduction 31 Attitudes Towards Brexit 32 Volatility 35 The Campaign 37 The Outcome 39 Why the Difference? 41 Conclusion 45 References 46 Part I Campaigning 48 3 Reaching the Right People: The Conservatives 49 4 No Time for Real Change: Labour 55 5 ‘Time to Choose Our Future’: The SNP 67 Background 67 Our Message 67 How We Won the Campaign 69 Leadership 72 The Result and What It Means 73 6 An Alternative Voice: The Liberal Democrats 75 2019—Before the Campaign 75 Pre-war Skirmishes: The Autumn of 2019 76 The Starting Gun 79 The Brexit Party 80 The TV Leaders’ Debates 81 The Ground War 82 The Air War 82 The Importance of a Core Message 83 Post Script: The Election Outcome, Fallout and Where Next 85 7 “Me and Brexit, or Nothing”: A French Perspective on Boris Johnson’s Victory 87 8 ‘Water Dripping on a Stone’: Topham Guerin and the Tory Digital Strategy 95 Introduction 95 The Digi Kiwis: Shitposting, Love Actually and Other Boomer-Memes 97 Getting Brexit Done: The YouTube and Google Dimensions 101 Facebook: More Output, Less Cost 102 Attack by Disinformation? 105 The Influence of ‘Non-Party’ Campaigners 108 Conclusion 110 References 112 9 “Strategic Lying”: Or How the Conservatives Dominated the Campaign News Agenda 117 Introduction 117 Lying 118 Spin ‘n Lies 120 Strategic Lying 121 The Strategic Lie in Action: The 2019 UK General Election 123 Conclusion 126 References 127 Part II Media 129 10 Knocking Copy: How the National Press Covered the Campaign 130 Introduction 130 Partisans in Print 132 Press Matters 138 Anti-Semitism and Anti-Corbyn 142 Conclusion 146 References 147 11 Reporting the Digital Campaign: Online News Coverage of the 2019 UK General Election by BuzzFeed and The Huffington Post 149 Introduction 149 Election News 151 Reporting Digital Campaigning Strategies 154 Reporting on Politicians’ Social Media 156 Conclusion 157 References 158 12 The Role of Alternative Online Political Media in the 2019 General Election 161 British Alternative Media Prior to the 2019 General Election 162 How Alternative Media Engaged with the Campaign 168 Conclusion: The Aftermath 174 References 175 13 Consternation Bias: Debates, TV Inquisitions and Impartiality in a Changing Electoral Era 179 References 188 14 Path to Power: The Brexit Election 190 Identifying Paths to a Majority 191 Paths to Break the Brexit Deadlock 192 Campaign Coverage: Voters, Data and Brexit 193 The View from Brexit-Voting Towns 194 The Remain Battleground 196 Labour’s Problems: Corbyn and Brexit 197 Diverging Nations: Scotland and Northern Ireland 199 “The Brexit Election” Concludes 200 15 Of Empty Chairs and Ice Sculptures: Regulating Broadcasting During the 2019 General Election—The Ofcom Perspective 203 Introduction 203 What Is Ofcom’s Role in Elections? 204 Political Advertising 204 Party Election Broadcasts (PEBs) 204 Editorial Coverage of Elections 205 How Do Broadcasters Make PEB Allocations and Editorial Decisions During Elections? 206 PEBs 206 General Editorial Coverage 207 Editorial Coverage of Candidates Taking Part in Constituency Reports and Discussions 208 How Does Ofcom Regulate the BBC? 209 What Programmes Did Ofcom Have to Consider During the 2019 Campaign? 210 Leaders’ Debates 211 Labelling of Election Programming 211 BBC Complaints 211 Empty-Chairing 213 What Happened with PEBs in 2019? 217 What of the Future? 218 References 218 Part III Polling 220 16 Understanding the Vote and the Voters: Ipsos MORI’s Polling in 2019 221 The Leaders and Their Parties 222 The Issues 224 The TV Debates 229 How Much Did the Voters Care? 230 References 234 17 The Other Election ‘Winners’: Polling and the Pollsters 235 References 238 18 Social Media and the UK General Election 2019 239 Brexit Out in Front 239 Interest in the Campaign 243 Engagement with the Issues 243 Engagement with Boris Johnson 243 2017 in the Rear-View Mirror 246 Reference 248 19 Exit Polling: A Brief History 249 Development of Exit Polling 250 Exit Poll Methodology—The Theory 254 Exit Poll Methodology—The Practice 258 References 261 20 From Media to Social Media: Opinion Polling in the Current Context 263 21 Is the Conservative Lead Growing? Is a Hung Parliament Possible? What Can We Believe? How a Partisan Press Reported the Polls 270 Introduction 270 The Conservative Lead: Big Enough? 272 Cheerleading, or Cautioning Against Complacency? 274 Intensity of the Poll Coverage in the Quality Press and in the Tabloids 276 Reading Scoreboards, Shifting Emphases 278 Conservative Grounds for Hope, Labour Grounds for Fear 281 Conservatives Ahead 284 A Growing Gap 285 A Winning Lead 285 The Polls Are Right 286 Labour Grounds for Hope, Conservative Grounds for Fear 287 The Conservative Lead Shrinking 287 A Hung Parliament Possible 289 Polls Are Unreliable 292 Conclusion 295 Appendix 301 References 303 Index 308